The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It's just a set of intentions which aren't legally binding or enforceable.

Doesn't that also apply to the EU referendum itself?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It's just a set of intentions which aren't legally binding or enforceable. Not worth the paper it's written on. The fact is that if the UK signs up to that withdrawal agreement the EU will have the country bent over a barrel.

What do you expect??? I said it a long time ago - when the UK negotiates with a major trading block it will not get to dictate terms, it gets told what is on offer and has to decide to accept it or not and if they are look they get a few window dressing items to make it look more palatable. Dealing with the USA etc will turn out exactly the same.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It's truly remarkable how obsessed Theresa May is with freedom of movement, giving everything else up in order to get that one concession.

It is the one demand we hear over and over from the BREXITEERS - foreigners stealing our jobs, foreigners taking our benefits, foreigners make house prices higher, foreigners putting a strain on the NHS etc, so now they got their wish. Politicians do what they hope will get them elected, nothing new there at all.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	What do you expect??? I said it a long time ago - when the UK negotiates with a major trading block it will not get to dictate terms, it gets told what is on offer and has to decide to accept it or not and if they are look they get a few window dressing items to make it look more palatable. Dealing with the USA etc will turn out exactly the same.

And I agreed, but not because the EU is a major trading block, but because it's the EU. What I expect is the UK to walk away however I'm afraid the politicians will shaft the country.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	It is the one demand we hear over and over from the BREXITEERS - foreigners stealing our jobs, foreigners taking our benefits, foreigners make house prices higher, foreigners putting a strain on the NHS etc, so now they got their wish. Politicians do what they hope will get them elected, nothing new there at all.

If this really was the case, then why are so many Brexiteers united in their dismay at this agreement?

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	What do you expect??? I said it a long time ago - when the UK negotiates with a major trading block it will not get to dictate terms, it gets told what is on offer and has to decide to accept it or not and if they are look they get a few window dressing items to make it look more palatable. Dealing with the USA etc will turn out exactly the same. It is the one demand we hear over and over from the BREXITEERS - foreigners stealing our jobs, foreigners taking our benefits, foreigners make house prices higher, foreigners putting a strain on the NHS etc, so now they got their wish. Politicians do what they hope will get them elected, nothing new there at all.

True about foreigners but the reality is as posted several times by different people in this thread that every year for many years there were more non-EU immigrants than EU immigrants; some years very many more.

Sadly perceptions have a much greater influence on people's views and decisions than facts do.

[John William]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Not sure how much the mums really like slaving away for their grown up kids or think it's their duty....anyhow, it's a bit weird that the exact same people would turn against EU when the solutions are out there: - study abroad if the general level in a certain field is better somewhere else, and it's not difficult to check that out - study something else that is required on the labour market - home or abroad - get EU funds to open a business - get a job that is better paid abroad. Why would anyone think of cutting off these options? Maybe it's more comfortable to stay at home and complain about the ing immigrants who steal our jobs that we don't want and they work harder for than we would ever do. Maybe the problem is not the state, neither the austerity measures or the EU. Anyone thought about this explanation?

There's only one downfall to living and working abroad and that's the
fact that it puts in jeopardy the erstwhile returnee Brit's chances of securing
an SC Security clearance job, upon his or her return to the UK.
Also it leaves a black hole in your credit worthiness with the Credit
Reference Agencies in the UK - also checked and verified by UK Employers where
vetting and background checks is a precondition to being considered for the job.

You will be surprised at the number of jobs where SC Security clearance is a
precondition; where you need at least 5 years continuous residence in the UK to
be eligible for undergoing the SC Check in the first place is a precondition to employment.
Which is true of any organisation that have dealings with Government, Government
Agencies and Defence related British companies like Rolls Royce.

	Quote:	greenmount
	I don't doubt what you say but I'd like to understand why would anyone turn down Cambridge for instance. I think that many people would grab that chance and make the best out of it and would be grateful for that opportunity. What's the atmosphere like? Too snobbish? And why would that bother me if the professors are among the best and I have the best conditions to study something that I like. I'm curious.

Happy to respond if you want to start a separate thread - but we should keep this one for Brexit, thanks - digressed sufficiently. But yes, perception of too snobbish, where accents will be mocked, etc, and a lot of extra costs like gowns, etc.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	And I agreed, but not because the EU is a major trading block, but because it's the EU. What I expect is the UK to walk away however I'm afraid the politicians will shaft the country.

In real terms, though, they're only shafting a shade over 15 million people, if you are looking at it on "country" terms.

A shade under 15 million people will actively go "yay" and the rest of the voting electorate who didn't vote will go "meh".

	Quote:
	In real terms, though, they're only shafting a shade over 15 million people, if you are looking at it on "country" terms. A shade under 15 million people will actively go "yay" and the rest of the voting electorate who didn't vote will go "meh".

That's where you're wrong. I said it had united the Brexiteers failed to mention something else. Theresa May said she wanted to united the country, well she's succeeded in that as all the Remainers think this is a shite deal too and won't support it. And in real terms, it's still shafting the entire country.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	But yes, perception of too snobbish, where accents will be mocked, etc, and a lot of extra costs like gowns, etc.

Gowns are not worn at Oxford as you're probably well aware. I doubt accents have been mocked since the BBC stoped making radio presenters wear a Dinner Jacket to read the news. Since 1978 when Janet Street-Porter started presenting I don't think it even occurred to people to do so.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	That's where you're wrong. I said it had united the Brexiteers failed to mention something else. Theresa May said she wanted to united the country, well she's succeeded in that as all the Remainers think this is a shite deal too and won't support it. And in real terms, it's still shafting the entire country.

Are you talking on parliament level or man-on-the-street level here? Are you sure you can speak for everyone and you're sure everyone feels shafted?

That's a bold assumption.

Most remainers will likely be relieved that it's not a no-deal hard Brexit. Now THAT would have shafted the entire country.

	Quote:
	Are you talking on parliament level or man-on-the-street level here? Are you sure you can speak for everyone and you're sure everyone feels shafted? That's a bold assumption. Most remainers will likely be relieved that it's not a no-deal hard Brexit. Now THAT would have shafted the entire country.

Short term pain (which has been massively over exaggerated) for long term gain.

I was speaking on a voter level, of course I've no way of knowing for sure, but just by the phone ins, message boards, letters pages etc. that the vast majority aren't happy with this deal.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Short term pain (which has been massively over exaggerated) for long term gain.

You'd think people would be able to see through "massive exaggeration" by now, wouldn't you?

The reality is that nobody knows what the longer term will bring and I think May is right to dilute it and play it safe. Slamming the door on the EU is a huge and irreversible gamble if it goes wrong.

Plus it all depends on where you stand on "short term", too. If you are being told that "it's fine, it will be 20 years of "short-term" pain" because it means that everything will be fine and thriving after you're dead, I can see where some people have their doubts.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I was speaking on a voter level, of course I've no way of knowing for sure, but just by the phone ins, message boards, letters pages etc. that the vast majority aren't happy with this deal.

Depends where you are looking and listening for your "vast majority", doesn't it? You can equally find a "vast majority" of people expressing relief that the PM is taking a more sensible and considered approach.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Gowns are not worn at Oxford as you're probably well aware. I doubt accents have been mocked since the BBC stoped making radio presenters wear a Dinner Jacket to read the news. Since 1978 when Janet Street-Porter started presenting I don't think it even occurred to people to do so.

Reminds me of my days many years ago at Cardiff studying Physics where we had to wear gowns. Couple of school friends went to Oxford and did well, one even got a baby and wife.
All my close circle of school friends went to various provincial universities; in those days (maybe still is?) it was the custom to dump half of the first year students after the exams, none of my circle survived the cull.

Anyway back to Brexit
We can only sit here and hope some good and final resolution emerges from the fog.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	And I agreed, but not because the EU is a major trading block, but because it's the EU. What I expect is the UK to walk away however I'm afraid the politicians will shaft the country.

Walking away is only an option if there is a realistic alternative, which there is not. With 20+ objects at the WTO, including Argentina and Russia, nothing is going to happen there for the foreseeable future, unless the UK is to make major concessions and we can guess what Argentina is looking for....

You cannot give up access for financial services, walk away trade agreements accounting for 90% of your trade and spend several years first trying to get the WTO sorted and follow that with several more years trying to agree a trade deal with some country and then back to the WTO again to get it all sown up. Voters are not going to accept that hardship, not when they don't have to, especially when it is not happening everywhere else at the same time.

People who rabbit on about what the British people put up with in the past, forget that they did not have a choice in it and that it was the same for all the other European countries as well at the time. That will not be the case this time.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	If this really was the case, then why are so many Brexiteers united in their dismay at this agreement?

But they are not united, they can't even cobble together the 48 letters needed to start a leadership challenge. The UK has a parliamentary democracy and MPs will do what they expect will get them reelected and clearly challenging May is not it, I expect over last weekend many chairmen told their PMs not to submit such a letter. It looks like May has a lot better intelligence on what is happening out in the constituencies than the BREXITEERS do.

By the same token the DUP have been told by the farmers union and the small business associations to reconsider their position. You will not find any Republicans in these organisations. These are Unionist organisations telling the DUP that they got it wrong. I'd expect to see most of the DUP abstaining rather than voting against the government on this. The DUP were late to the party on the GFA, late to the party on the Queen's visit to Ireland, the 1916 commendations, hell even the Ulster GAA Championship, in all cases they got it wrong with their own voters and had to roll it back.



Like all politicians, Arlene Foster of the DUP is not beyond a selfie with Michelle O'Neill, Vice President of Sinn Fein when it suits.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Short term pain (which has been massively over exaggerated) for long term gain.

Ya, such as in ten years or so... say four of fives years to agree WTO trade schedules, another three of four to get a trade deal and then a couple of more years for it to actually start to show a return. So two elections away or there about....

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I was speaking on a voter level, of course I've no way of knowing for sure, but just by the phone ins, message boards, letters pages etc. that the vast majority aren't happy with this deal.

Not even remotely close to representative of what is out there. It is the consiticutancies that elect and reelect the MPs and clearly there are not even enough local chairmen supporting MPs to cobble together the needed 48 letters for a leadership challenge. If May is smart and I'm beginning to think she actually is, she will not invoke a three line whip leaving it open to all MPs to vote on their consiticutancies advice/recommendation/instructions rather than party lines.

Lol! I expect a statement regarding Catalonian independence for da bantz.

	Quote:
	After my conversation with Theresa May, our positions remain far away. My Government will always defend the interests of Spain. If there are no changes, we will veto Brexit.

https://twitter.com/sanchezcastejon/...19004923342850

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Walking away is only an option if there is a realistic alternative, which there is not. With 20+ objects at the WTO, including Argentina and Russia, nothing is going to happen there for the foreseeable future, unless the UK is to make major concessions and we can guess what Argentina is looking for.... You cannot give up access for financial services, walk away trade agreements accounting for 90% of your trade and spend several years first trying to get the WTO sorted and follow that with several more years trying to agree a trade deal with some country and then back to the WTO again to get it all sown up. Voters are not going to accept that hardship, not when they don't have to, especially when it is not happening everywhere else at the same time.

I don't think you understand how the WTO works. The UK is and will continue to be a member of the WTO once it leaves the EU. This means it will be able to continue trade no matter what. The objections raised by Argentina, Russia, New Zealand ect. are related to tariff quotas and ceilings and how the split of these between the UK and EU will be managed upon departure. These will need to be negotiated, but it doesn't mean that trade will grind to a halt.

Financial services would also continue, London is already a global financial hub that trades outside the EU. The mass exodus to Paris or Frankfurt that was predicted simply hasn't happened. Indeed, what people also seem to have forgotten is the reliance the EU has on London for financial services.

I'm not saying it would be easy, but I imagine 3-6 years of hardship, certainly a recession to overcome before getting back on track. But so what? The next crash isn't far away, where recession will be inevitable for everyone. The EU hasn't made the necessary reforms to deal with another crash and when it does happen the PIGS debt dynamics to spiral out of control whereupon the EU will likely be screwed anyway.

Anything, but just anything could happen in next few weeks ...

Just don't know how Mrs May keeps going - whatever I think of her politics- you just have to admire her tenacity and sheer 'keepgoingability'.

Stanley Johnson Snr- whose first idea to solve the Irish border crisis was to 'just let them shoot each other, as per usual' - now has been to told its not quite cricket, so has come up with another bright idea 'the Irish can just leave too and join us' hurrah- sure that will work.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Gowns are not worn at Oxford as you're probably well aware. I doubt accents have been mocked since the BBC stoped making radio presenters wear a Dinner Jacket to read the news. Since 1978 when Janet Street-Porter started presenting I don't think it even occurred to people to do so.

Probably not the accents per se, but some can be treated more arrogantly based on the perception some people have of their region, town etc. It happens all the time, not only there. But then again, that can happen even in the towns or unis Odile has mentioned. (theoretically)

Course structure or cost of living, that could be a deal breaker but I tend to assume that few would let this chance pass them by just because there are some not-so-good parts i.e. student life or snobbish athmosphere (you can surely have your own fun..). It's always about what one really wants and what's more important for them, I guess.

[lewton]

So is it now official that Vote Leave cheated?