The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	Jim2007
	I know this probably a waste of time, since all you do is repeat what you were told, but to amuse us could you at least post the links to your sources for this conclusion? It would be very interesting to see a factual article on how an inanimate object with little or no monetary behind it frustrated the industrial policy of five nations, especially taking account of the fact that Greece had an insolvency problem, Ireland have a cash flow problems etc... Come on give us a laugh for the long winters evening ahead....

What do you want? Proof that Italy's economy has basically had a cumulative growth of zero since it joined the Euro?



Or proof that there is a massive debt bomb within the eurozone that will eventually go pop?



There's no simplified chart I'm afraid that explains the importance of monetary policy in managing an economy, but it's really basic economics. I suggest you go and do some research.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	What do you want? Proof that Italy's economy has basically had a cumulative growth of zero since it joined the Euro? Or proof that there is a massive debt bomb within the eurozone that will eventually go pop? There's no simplified chart I'm afraid that explains the importance of monetary policy in managing an economy, but it's really basic economics. I suggest you go and do some research.

While we're on the subject of "simplified charts". This shows the growth of Europe when its component parts are not at each others throats...

[Troublawesome]

	Quote:
	While we're on the subject of "simplified charts". This shows the growth of Europe when its component parts are not at each others throats...

What kind of BS chart is this that counts the 12 wealthiest countries as Europe instead of 28? And includes CH in it as well?

	Quote:
	While we're on the subject of "simplified charts". This shows the growth of Europe when its component parts are not at each others throats...

I think if the EU consisted of the gentleman’s club that it would be if made up of those countries then there wouldn’t have been a Brexit!

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I think if the EU consisted of the gentleman’s club that it would be if made up of those countries then there wouldn’t have been a Brexit!

The gentleman's club preserved their privileges also due to the extension of their primary market and resources they had access to, unlimited by any kind of protectionism. The thing is UK didn't have the same advantages as Germany, Holland, Italy etc. I think they should have never joined the club in the first place. Commonwealth had obviously satisfied or would have satisfied their needs much better. I really think you should make a separation between various countries from the "old EU". UK is a pretty special case and I totally agree with their choice. Not with the way they chose to do it, of course. But maybe it's the best for everyone.

	Quote:	Troublawesome
	What kind of BS chart is this that counts the 12 wealthiest countries as Europe instead of 28? And includes CH in it as well?

I did say it was "simplified"

Anyway, the data set is defined as Europe; Switzerland, not to mention Norway, still count as Europe. It's just the EU that they're not members of.

Granted it was a bit friv but given some of the eye-wateringly tenuous reasoning on this thread it fits in beautifully.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	What do you want? Proof that Italy's economy has basically had a cumulative growth of zero since it joined the Euro? Or proof that there is a massive debt bomb within the eurozone that will eventually go pop? There's no simplified chart I'm afraid that explains the importance of monetary policy in managing an economy, but it's really basic economics. I suggest you go and do some research.

Are you now proposing that the EU should have a single centrally controlled monetary policy? That is a dramatic change.

[marton]

	Quote:
	I did say it was "simplified" Anyway, the data set is defined as Europe; Switzerland, not to mention Norway, still count as Europe. It's just the EU that they're not members of. Granted it was a bit friv but given some of the eye-wateringly tenuous reasoning on this thread it fits in beautifully.

Plus most of the other countries not listed joined the EU after the end date of the chart

As there’s virtually no chance of this deal getting through parliament, what do people think will happen next? Only two outcomes I can see are a full u-turn remain, but that’ll require a second referendum. Or a no-deal Brexit. I’m slightly edging towards no-deal Brexit however too many factors at play to have any confidence.

[John William]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	As there’s virtually no chance of this deal getting through parliament, what do people think will happen next? Only two outcomes I can see are a full u-turn remain, but that’ll require a second referendum. Or a no-deal Brexit. I’m slightly edging towards no-deal Brexit however too many factors at play to have any confidence.

And to think that if the British Referendum on the EU vote had gone the other way, with the same majority or
better for the UK to remain in the EU - then we wouldn't be finding ourselves in this pickle in the first place.

[Troublawesome]

I think it will get passed, it is a good compromise. Yes, UK only loses from it but in the heads of the ignorant it means a lot to not be part of the EU anymore. It will be a huge victory, until they realize the pain that is coming.


No deal will no be allowed to happen by anyone. No one is in favor of it, not even Moggs and Johnson, the chief clowns.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	There's no simplified chart I'm afraid that explains the importance of monetary policy in managing an economy, but it's really basic economics. I suggest you go and do some research.

Your charts prove absolutely nothing! In order to show that the Italian government policy was in some way frustrated by Euro Group membership, you’d actually have to provide an analysis of the policy, identity the actual issues, addressing the reasons why the policy had no impact on the other group members and addressing why member states who do have control such as the UK faired no better. And so on.

Monetary policy is a tool used in managing an economy, but there is very little evidence out there to suggest it has had anything close to the impact it had in the early part of the 20th century.

Producing a couple of generic charts and parroting of some wild statements devoid of factual analysis is exactly what I have come to expect of you.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	As there’s virtually no chance of this deal getting through parliament, what do people think will happen next?

What is your actual experience of UK party politics? Have you been a member of a party, taken part in their meetings, the selection process, campaigned door to door, what?

The fact that the BREXITEERS were unable produced the required 48 letters to start a leadership challenge means the local party chairmen have been tell MPs that they were in danger of being deselected or loosing the seat if they joined in. Expect that to continue. The challenge for May will be to set the rules for the vote - a three line whip and she will loose almost for certain because of the DUP, but anything else and there is a good chance she will get it through.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	What is your actual experience of UK party politics? Have you been a member of a party, taken part in their meetings, the selection process, campaigned door to door, what? The fact that the BREXITEERS were unable produced the required 48 letters to start a leadership challenge means the local party chairmen have been tell MPs that they were in danger of being deselected or loosing the seat if they joined in. Expect that to continue. The challenge for May will be to set the rules for the vote - a three line whip and she will loose almost for certain because of the DUP, but anything else and there is a good chance she will get it through.

Where are the numbers going to come from? Labour have said they’ll oppose it, the DUP and SNP too, ERG plus many other Tories won’t vote for it. So how will she get it over the line?

You can talk about deselection, but that’s something for momentum and Labour. What politicians care more about than anything else is power. And more sensible Tories know that if they back this deal then it’ll keep them out of government for perhaps a generation. There is many an ardent Tory brexiteer that won’t even be able to pinch their nose and vote conservative again if this passes.

And as for the letters, they were almost certainly there. However I think it was realised that unless they could guarantee unseating May then it wasn’t worth the risk of going through with the no confidence motion. The stakes were too high that if they failed then the Tories would be stuck with her for another year thanks to party rules. I think they’re keeping their powder dry until they know they’ll definitely be rid of her I.e. after this deal gets rejected.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Where are the numbers going to come from? Labour have said they’ll oppose it, the DUP and SNP too, ERG plus many other Tories won’t vote for it. So how will she get it over the line? You can talk about deselection, but that’s something for momentum and Labour. What politicians care more about than anything else is power. And more sensible Tories know that if they back this deal then it’ll keep them out of government for perhaps a generation. There is many an ardent Tory brexiteer that won’t even be able to pinch their nose and vote conservative again if this passes. And as for the letters, they were almost certainly there. However I think it was realised that unless they could guarantee unseating May then it wasn’t worth the risk of going through with the no confidence motion. The stakes were too high that if they failed then the Tories would be stuck with her for another year thanks to party rules. I think they’re keeping their powder dry until they know they’ll definitely be rid of her I.e. after this deal gets rejected.

But what will be the implications if the deal fails?
Nobody will be able to claim a win either!

[John William]

	Quote:	marton
	But what will be the implications if the deal fails? Nobody will be able to claim a win either!

Well I suppose Jacob Rees-Mogg could always don a monocle and gleefully announce to the
world, how he single-handly brought down the Brexit agreement and saved his North-East
Somerset constituents from EU vassaldom.


In fact there's a thought - Jacob Rees-Mogg could relaunch himself as, The Monocled Brexiteer !!


The Mirror - Why Monocled Mutineer Jacob Rees-Mogg is Labour's dream Tory Leader

[Odile]

Unbearable situation - anything, just anything could happen.

What is Jeremy Corbyn playing at - will never forgive him

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Your charts prove absolutely nothing! In order to show that the Italian government policy was in some way frustrated by Euro Group membership, you’d actually have to provide an analysis of the policy, identity the actual issues, addressing the reasons why the policy had no impact on the other group members and addressing why member states who do have control such as the UK faired no better. And so on. Monetary policy is a tool used in managing an economy, but there is very little evidence out there to suggest it has had anything close to the impact it had in the early part of the 20th century. Producing a couple of generic charts and parroting of some wild statements devoid of factual analysis is exactly what I have come to expect of you.

Well as I'm sure you know, it's very hard to prove these things unequivocally as there's so many other factors involved. There's books that have been written on the subject which you can go and read. Either you can think the Euro has had a huge influence on eurozone economies or it hasn't. (It has)

You're wrong about monetary policy, being able to set interest rates is an important part of running an economy. This is the fundamental problem of the eurozone, how to set the right interest rate for a currency in use by 19 separate economies? And even if you don't think monetary policy is an important tool, Fiscal policy also is limited by countries that are a member of the euro as Italy are currently learning through the EU rejection of their budget.

	Quote:	Odile
	What is Jeremy Corbyn playing at - will never forgive him

Erm, respecting the result of the referendum?

To be fair, I don't think Corbyn is too bothered about Brexit, the only thing he sees it as is an opportunity to push his way into Number 10. Look at the last election - whilst Theresa May was repeating "Strong and Stable" like a demented parrot, he was offering free stuff and barely even mentioned Brexit, it almost paid off too.

[Odile]

It would be very easy for him to explain clearly why this Referendum does not deserve to be respected, and that Democracy cannot ever be based on lies as big as a bus, proven fraud and foreign interference- and how it is linked to the new laws about tax evasion. And why now the consequences are much clearer, Democracy requires that people have a final say.

I know you will disagree - but it is quite simple, really.