The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[bowlie]

	Quote:	marton
	UK and US have agreed a new Open Skies agreement for post Brexit. Source The terms of the agreement are inferior to the rights the UK enjoys as an EU member. For example tighter restrictions on ownership, tougher terms for new entrants and no special access to the Fly America programme, this allocates tickets for US government employees. So much for the UK negotiating better deals after Brexit; maybe this will be an exception and other deals will be better?

From the link:

	Quote:
	The continuation of the [anti-trust immunity for] JVs, however, will require not only a U.S.-UK and a U.S.-EU open skies, but also a liberal aviation agreement between the UK and the EU. Talks of a post-Brexit comprehensive air transport agreement between the EU and its soon former member country have not yet started.

Oops, So long Oneworld, so long Skyteam.

[bowlie]

	Quote:
	But it is the current EU that is the problem. I am sure that if the EU could get its act together and reform radically. or at least start moving in the direction of reform, opinions on it will shift too.

I’m not certain who the ‘current EU’ is, in this context. Before I retired I spent much time in Brussels dealing with Commission officials and the Parliament lobbying in support of my industry’s policies on numerous issues.

Early on an ‘old Brussels hand’ advised me not to waste my time with the British ‘in the EU’. This confused me as I thought they would wield a lot of influence and would be a counter-foil to the French and Germans. ‘Not so,” I was told ‘The Brits have no [expletive deleted] idea of what they want and no [expletive deleted] idea of what they are doing. “Just look at who they send to the Parliament”.

The problem is not the current EU, it is those that let the current EU exist.

[amogles]

	Quote:	StirB
	The sad thing, and logical conclusion to this MO, is that when the EU can no longer be the fall guy, who will get blamed next? Immigrants are already pretty high on the list of things people believe cause all their woes - I don't like the direction this is likely to go in.

Is the UK unique here?

Isn't this just the cynical state that politics in general have reached?

OK, not blaming the EU specifically, but having somebody to blame?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	OK, not blaming the EU specifically, but having somebody to blame?

In Ireland people blame the politicians and it is not possible for them (politicians) to blame the EU since decision making on the EU is reserved to the people, so it would be like blaming the voters... not a good strategy if you want to keep your seat

On the other hand:

	Quote:
	In Ireland, we have 58% who believe our political leaders are a good reflection of the population, whereas, across the rest of Western Europe, it's only 28%.

Source

I don't for a minute think Irish politicians are any better than anywhere else, it is more the case that Irish people are far more politically ware and have a more realistic expectation of what is possible and what is not.

[marton]

	Quote:
	London will lose up to to €800bn (£700bn) in assets to rival financial hub Frankfurt by March 2019 as banks start to transfer business to the German city before Brexit day. The lobby group Frankfurt Main Finance released the figure after it was confirmed that 30 banks and financial firms had chosen the city as the site of their new EU headquarters.

Source

According to the article the number of firms committed to expanding or setting up offices in Frankfurt will be closer to 37. And several banks – including JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley – planning to spread their operations across a number of cities including Dublin and Paris

[StirB]

	Quote:	amogles
	Is the UK unique here? Isn't this just the cynical state that politics in general have reached? OK, not blaming the EU specifically, but having somebody to blame?

Probably, but anger at a largely faceless organization with no real local presence to abuse isn't too dangerous. When that is no longer an option and populists start blaming...foreigners, travelers, refugees etc etc who are actual people in generally already bad circumstances, then we see the potential for real evil to begin.

[JoeUK]

Well at least migration to the UK from the EU is down to it's lowest level for six years. However, net migration as a whole is up over the last year with available records.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	amogles
	Is the UK unique here? Isn't this just the cynical state that politics in general have reached? OK, not blaming the EU specifically, but having somebody to blame?

I am not sure that cynical would be the correct term. Dishonest? Allergic to even a faint trace of accountability?

Manipulation or distraction is an effective strategy to polarize and antagonize voters. I can hardly remember anyone who would have the guts to say "we effed up but at least we know where we're at, let's look forward" instead of "it wasn't me".

The problem is with what voters want to hear, too. Maybe it is "it's them". Then whatever comes next wil try to sell this amazing lie to the voters, EU or not.

I don't take Brexit by any means as "it's them" move since it is one of the favorite EU things, large area, lots of overpaid admins, unwise investments, nobody to hold accountable...

With Brexit there us no more EU to blame. Brexit brings accountability from Brussels to whoever is running the UK. Yes, it will be painful but less painful now then for other regional EU govs when they decide that the accountability and transparent accounting is the only way to progress.

We make sacrifices and accept certain austerity measures here, when we move in. Personal responsiblity, autonomy and accountability of small regional gouvernance is what makes CH so highly functional. Defending remainers by those who appreciate the level of Swiss autonomy makes no sense. Must be some kind of affective attitude, maybe.

[amogles]

	Quote:	StirB
	Probably, but anger at a largely faceless organization with no real local presence to abuse isn't too dangerous. When that is no longer an option and populists start blaming...foreigners, travelers, refugees etc etc who are actual people in generally already bad circumstances, then we see the potential for real evil to begin.

I undersdtand what you're trying to say, but I think it's a big leao to say, when the big faceless organization you like to blame goes away, then you will blame somebody defenceless instead.

For example, many eco-activists like to blame the likes of Monsanto, sometimes rightly, sometimes wrongly for everything from dead bees to people dying of lung cancer in Africa. Monsanto is a big faceless organization who are easy to blame because who likes big facelesss and evil unaccountable organizations, right? By your logic that is wrong, because should Monsanto collapse, those people will surely blame some defenceless people instead?

Isn't it far more likely that without a Monsanto, the eco-activist crowd will find some other big agro or big phrama shop to blame for everything. Likeise, why shouldn't UK politicians start blaming NATO, the WTO, the IMF or somebody like that? Somebody as equally invisble as the EU. Somebody as equally simple to caricature. Somebody already hated by the anti globalist crowd of both the left and the right meaning the arguments and slogans are alraedy there. Why assume it will be little people?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	amogles
	OK, not blaming the EU specifically, but having somebody to blame?

And there was me thinking it was the BREXITERS were at fault for everything.

[John William]

	Quote:	amogles
	I undersdtand what you're trying to say, but I think it's a big leao to say, when the big faceless organization you like to blame goes away, then you will blame somebody defenceless instead. For example, many eco-activists like to blame the likes of Monsanto, sometimes rightly, sometimes wrongly for everything from dead bees to people dying of lung cancer in Africa. Monsanto is a big faceless organization who are easy to blame because who likes big facelesss and evil unaccountable organizations, right? By your logic that is wrong, because should Monsanto collapse, those people will surely blame some defenceless people instead? Isn't it far more likely that without a Monsanto, the eco-activist crowd will find some other big agro or big phrama shop to blame for everything. Likwise, why shouldn't UK politicians start blaming NATO, the WTO, the IMF or somebody like that? Somebody as equally invisble as the EU. Somebody as equally simple to caricature. Somebody already hated by the anti globalist crowd of both the left and the right meaning the arguments and slogans are alraedy there. Why assume it will be little people?

Well the UK might lose the chance ro blame the EU and Brussels after Brexit but there's always
their old Cold War adversary, Russia and the machinations of Putin in the Kremlin and the Red
hackers in Cyberspace to be getting on with.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	And there was me thinking was the BREXITERS were at fault for everything.

Even for people not showing up to vote.

"Wasn't me"

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	John William
	Well the UK might lose the chance ro blame the EU and Brussels after Brexit but there's always their old Cold War adversary, Russia and the machinations of Putin in the Kremlin and the Red hackers in Cyberspace to be getting on with.

You forgot the US. Brexit must be Trump's fault.

[John William]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	You forgot the US. Brexit must be Trump's fault.

Ah but you forget about who got Trump in the White House in the first place !!

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	John William
	Ah but you forget about who got Trump in the White House in the first place !!

Hillary.

[John William]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	Hillary.

And with more than a little help from Trumps Russian friends !!

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	John William
	And with more than a little help from Trumps Russian friends !!

But but outraging about russkies isn't as empowering as outraging about Trump??

[John William]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	But but outraging about russkies isn't as empowering as outraging about Trump??

Maybe you should look at it from a Ukrainian point of view ?

[amogles]

	Quote:	John William
	Maybe you should look at it from a Ukrainian point of view ?

Brexit is the biggest problem in the Ukraine right now.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	John William
	Maybe you should look at it from a Ukrainian point of view ?

Because it would help the Brits so much right now?