The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Deep Purple]

This is probably as accurate as most of the information that has come from both sides

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Swisstree
	Ftfy I am really sick of each side bashing the other. There are too many important questions and considerations for us all to think about - objectively. The results from the referendum, whether in or out, will not alter the fact that we will still need to consider the direction we are all heading in. I could do with more time.

The whole official debate was done in a Daily Mail-esque style, a few innocuous posts on EF won't make any difference.
I do hope that UK will get what they want. But what will the pro-Brexiters do if it doesn't turn out as they expected? I worry for them.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	TobiasM
	I totally agree though, it's not fair to the people of Greece, but then the people must decide who is accountable and try to ascertain where that money went!

Well with the people I know and meet, Papandreou is a dirty word these days. People always stress the different generations of the family who became Prime Ministers, and almost spit when they mention Giorgios. I always hear him refered to as weak and feeble.

	Quote:	k_and_e
	don't forget that the EU was very eager to get the Greek in the euro and these lies were well known.

This much is true. Political historians refer to Greece being urged to join the EU before it was truly ready, because it was felt that they couldn't have a democratic union without the home of democracy being at the table.


I must say, I have rarely come across a nation where defrauding the tax man is as common place, blatant and accepted as it is in Greece. I've yet to go to a petrol station where I haven't been offered a second receipt. In two weeks time, I'll be back at my OH's place, a quiet village next to Kifissia in northern Athens. The sheer opulence in Kifissia, even in times of austerity, is breathtaking. I've asked my OH's family why these spectacular houses have such high garden walls? Is it because of crime? Apparently it's to stop the tax man seeing that they have swimming pools because they would be taxed on them.


By equal measure, there's a camaraderie and generosity of spirit in Greece that I rarely see anywhere else, and hardly ever in the UK. We'll visit my OH's elderly aunts in Marousi and call at the minimarket at the end of their street with them because, when we buy three bottles of wine for the family lunch, the shop owner slips another bottle of wine and a fresh loaf into his aunt's shopping bag. He does things for all the elderly people in the area...a free loaf here, an extra piece of cheese there, so it's only right that we shop at his store to show our appreciation for caring for my OH's aunts.

Greece will survive. I fully expect Greece to remain in the EU. As for other financial issues, perhaps some people need to watch 'Margin Call' again to remind themselves of the mentality that was responsible for 2008.

	Quote:	TobiasM
	The Euro was intended to elevate other European countries that were wracked with poverty and bring the whole of Europe onto a level playing field economically, those intentions were not only positive, but necessary, on the whole Europe is now wealthier and more prosperous then it has ever been. No more Drachmas or Liras or Pesos, an equal stable currency across the board! makes trade easier and more consistent! But lest we forget, a unified Europe is the best way to avoid conflict from returning to Europe.

Thanks, Tobias. I agree the intention was a good one and for a while everything looked great, positive etc.. but no longer, the lack of economic progress and poverty is real and stagnant. No improvement for many people across the eurozone - this is why Tusk is now admitting to failings and calling for changes.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Swisstree
	Thanks, Tobias. I agree the intention was a good one and for a while everything looked great, positive etc.. but no longer, the lack of economic progress and poverty is real and stagnant. No improvement for many people across the eurozone - this is why Tusk is now admitting to failings and calling for changes.

The progress was real before the crisis. Even the EU-8 had improved a bit.

	Quote:	greenmount
	The progress was real before the crisis.

So what? Downturns and crisis have happened before 2008; however, it has never taken as long to recover with prolonged austerity measures making the eurozone an unhappy place for many. If the EU is proving it doesn't work 8 years after a downturn, well hey..

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Swisstree
	So what? Downturns and crisis have happened before 2008; however, it has never taken as long to recover with prolonged austerity measures making the eurozone an unhappy place for many. If the EU is proving it doesn't work 8 years after a downturn, well hey..

Unfortunately, not only the eurozone suffers from the effects of prolonged austerity measures. There are so many countries, in and out of EU, which cannot find a way to recover. Austerity measures are necessary if you spend more than you produce. Also, there is no common tax policy so I don't know why the EU gets the whole blame for problems that each country should deal with. (among other issues related to taxation, please read Blueangel's post)

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Swisstree
	If the EU is proving it doesn't work 8 years after a downturn, well hey..

2 of the top 5 biggest economies in the World are in the EU.

You can't lay the blame for all the actions of individual governments at the door of the EU.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	It exacerbated the problem and took away the main tool that would fix it: currency devaluation.

At this point in time currency devaluation is as useful as a chocolate teapot! You only have to look at this country's attempt to peg the Franc to see the cost involved is well beyond the ability of most countries!

Furthermore, in the case of Ireland it has been a major net exporter over a long period and such countries always struggle to devalue their currency. Which is obvious since if you are continually selling more that you are buying demand for your currency will rise.

And in the case of the UK it was run a negative balance of trade for over 20 years and it too has been unable to use currency devaluation to address the issue.

But that said, all of these countries had the tools necessary to cool their economies had the decided to do so. They could have required a minimum deposit for mortgages and require that that deposit be in demonstrated savings rather than a gift from granny! They could have introduced CGT taxes on a wide array of gains from the disposal of personal assets, they could have removed all tax breaks on debt, they could have introduced very high rates of stamp duty, they could have introduced higher rates of VAT, tax on credit cards and so on, but they decided not to.

The idea that if you have control over your currency, you can fix economic problems by devaluing it in a global economy is total nonsense at this stage.

[jacek]

Outcome dependent, some may need to hop on the bus tomorrow morning ... Goodnite!

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	The idea that if you have control over your currency, you can fix economic problems by devaluing it in a global economy is total nonsense at this stage.

The problem is every country is trying to devalue their currency at the same time, the sooner base rates hit 5% the better.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	greenmount
	And for some of us - those who aren't British but for various reasons enjoyed this forum for a while, it's been quite unpleasant to watch all these debates. Good luck.

Thanks. We need it.

Trust me, what you've witnessed here is nothing to the sheer venom I saw in the UK in the first two weeks of this month. I couldn't wait to get back to Switzerland.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/union-...ampaign=buffer

[jacek]

It doesn't pay off to sleep. In six hours the voting frenzy will start and craziness on jittering markets will ensue.

UK goes to polls in EU referendum
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36602702

[marton]

	Quote:	Swisstree
	Ftfy I am really sick of each side bashing the other. There are too many important questions and considerations for us all to think about - objectively. The results from the referendum, whether in or out, will not alter the fact that we will still need to consider the direction we are all heading in. I could do with more time.

"I could do with more time" I could do with more facts from either side, or both

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	It was dead easy to stay in a country before free movement, you just needed to get married, of course you knew that & did

In most countries this trick does not work anymore.

[marton]

	Quote:
	Ironically it could be the expats eligible to vote who carry sway in the referendum, of whom there are 1.2 million in Aus/NZ, 700k in Spain and 475k in the States. I don't think they've shown up in any polls so far and the ones I know are in the remain camp, whether they bother voting or not is another question.

"Ironically it could be the expats eligible to vote who " Maybe, if you live in an EU country or Switzerland and want to guarantee your quality of life (regular pension increases, protected medical costs) then vote against Brexit.

If you want to take a gamble then vote Brexit; just remember that in all casinos the odds are against gamblers

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	In most countries this trick does not work anymore.

Really, how many countries don't allow family reunification?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

	Quote:	Blueangel
	2 of the top 5 biggest economies in the World are in the EU. You can't lay the blame for all the actions of individual governments at the door of the EU.

I don't buy the simple argument that when things are going great it is because of the EU but when things go badly it is the individual country's fault. I liken that to claiming Murray is English when he wins Wimbledon and Scottish when he looses.

Without question, understanding and laying out the part the EU plays in the success as well as the failures across the Eurozone should be equally addressed.

From 2012 an article from The Guardian
*Who is to blame for Greece's crisis?
The four main suspects will get off lightly compared with the real victims: the most vulnerable segments of the Greek population*

June 17 2016, NY Times: Explaining Greece’s Debt Crisis
*The bailout money was supposed to buy Greece time to stabilize its finances and quell market fears that the euro union itself could break up. While it has helped, Greece’s economic problems have not gone away. The economy has shrunk by a quarter in five years, and unemployment is about 25 percent.

The bailout money mainly goes toward paying off Greece’s international loans, rather than making its way into the economy. And the government still has a staggering debt load that it cannot begin to pay down unless a recovery takes hold.*

If we are in the EU for all the huge benefits it brings, why are so many across the Eurozone unhappy and why is eurosceptism increasing? The head of the EU council Donald Tusk has held his hands up to the deepening concerns across the Eurozone, laying this problem firmly at the door of the EU.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Really, how many countries don't allow family reunification?

Probably more correctly stated as:

	Quote:	marton
	In most countries this trick does not automatically work anymore.

Time was you simply had to find any random national and marry him/her. Now you're usually expected to prove a genuine long-term relationship.

Not wanting to inflame things, but reading back the complaints about pensioners abroad not being able to swallow a drop in £.

If an FX Rate change means you can't afford to live abroad any more, should you have really gone in the first place? Seems wreckless in the extreme to gamble on a strong pound year after year for the last 30 years of your life.