The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	curley
	Why? It would still be a glorified opinion poll.

Do you bother thinking before you post? A GE delivers up a parliament with a mandate to implement the voters choice, a referendum does not.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	not the biggest no, but the one that will mean it'll never happen. Hey, you french squaddies, you must speak german now - just see how that goes down. (works just as well with italians too)

NATO provides the blueprint:
National units, each operating with its national language, under a central EU command.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	Greece has a fragile economy that can't take a hit Italy has a fragile economy that can't take a hit France has a fragile economy that can't take a hit Spain has a fragile economy that can't take a hit What do you think they would do if a hard Brexit might become a reality?

Right, but the UK economy is not fragile... the big difference is that those four have friends to help it carry the burden. We have already seen that the Euro Group can take a very large hit and have strengthen their position since. On the other hand the last time the UK was tested it crashed out of the EMU and it does not look like the BOE is even as strong today.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	So how do you think NATO works then or is NATO some kind of magic that cause forces to suddenly function differently... Clearly you know SFA about the topic.

NATO works because of the US. I don't give it so much longer to last. European army would probably be also sponzored largely only by Germany - hence it will not happen, Germans have other worries they are pouring their GDP in.

[curley]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	How does democracy work with compulsory voting? And how does the system follow up with those don't vote? In theory, not a bad idea. Theoretically, we can also assume that people weren't informed. They did not inform themselves. Maybe. Next time when something important comes up, they will. To have to deal with consequences is a way to teach people to come to the urns, without making it compulsory. It's not like that obligation would be implementable, anyways.

Of course it would be implementable. It's also discussed in Switzerland every few years. As we say here, voting is "ein Recht und eine Pflicht" (a right as well as an obligation).
It is also possible to abstain from voting by just putting a dash instead of "yes" or "no". (As I do when they for example vote about teachers ... whom I don't know and don't concern me and I don't want to mess it up for those it does concern).
It makes a huge difference though whether one abstains "officially"or just doesn't show up to vote.

Re. referenda in England it would not make a difference really though - as they are only advisory.


As to "not having been informed well enough". I sure agree with you, getting information is due to oneself.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	curley
	Of course it would be implementable. It's also discussed in Switzerland every few years. As we say here, voting is "ein Recht und eine Pflicht" (a right as well as an obligation). It is also possible to abstain from voting by just putting a dash instead of "yes" or "no". (As I do when they for example vote about teachers ... whom I don't know and don't concern me and I don't want to mess it up for those it does concern). It makes a huge difference though whether one abstains "officially"or just doesn't show up to vote. Re. referenda in England it would not make a difference really though - as they are only advisory. As to "not having been informed well enough". I sure agree with you, getting information is due to oneself.

How do you sanction not showing up to vote then?

Maybe that's why it is defined as a "right" to something as well, that "obligation" part is impossible to sanction should people not show up. Hence it is being discussed every few years and still is a right, not compulsory.

[curley]

	Quote:
	In the same way as any election is a glorified opinion poll. Or are you referring to the non-binding element of the referendum? I think the UK government has shown that it's happy to accept the result as binding.

Yes, I did.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	Actually Dover is roughly 4 million including the tunnel. Basel is more than I expected - but does often have huge truck queues apparently. See the below as one example https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/baden-...renze-100.html

I don't dispute the queues, that would be quite nonsensical. Weekends border closure alone should create some from sometime Saturday until Monday early morning. That said, Chiasso seems much more prone to make the headlines.

As for total trucks, reportedly 20k cross the Swiss border daily (probably includes all sizes, not just the 40-tons that I'd expect to dominate Dover), that's more than 6mln based on a 6-day week.

[curley]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	How do you sanction not showing up to vote then? Maybe that's why it is defined as a "right" to something as well, that "obligation" part is impossible to sanction should people not show up. Hence it is being discussed every few years and still is a right, not compulsory.

With fines. And it is possible, at least here, as every community knows it's people and where to reach them and all incoming "Stimmrechtsausweise" have to be controlled anyway.

I guess the main reason it's not compulsory yet is because we're generally not into these types of solutions much.

Anyway this would not (have been) be a solution to Brexit.

[Brianzoeu]

UK members, it will be alright, the EU is doomed to failure because of its superstate concept and, most importantly, the EURO structural error. Be calm and relax:

How does this work?

[amogles]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	This no-confidence motion has nothing to do with the General Election, regardless I've said on many occasions, a second referendum only makes sense after the result of the first has been carried out. I've also said that if there is a second then we can demand a third.

I wonder what the thresshold is in other EU countries to getting a vote on whether to stay or whether to leave.

It seems that the probability of the UK getting a second or even a third vote is way highr than many another country getting even a first.

[amogles]

Just wondering.

Now that the EU officially says we can revoke article 50 and everything will be as if nothing happened.

Des that mean we can revoke it and re-aply it the very next day ---- as often as we like --- and that would reset the clock every time giving us more time to negotiate a better deal?

[Brianzoeu]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Right, but the UK economy is not fragile... the big difference is that those four have friends to help it carry the burden. We have already seen that the Euro Group can take a very large hit and have strengthen their position since. On the other hand the last time the UK was tested it crashed out of the EMU and it does not look like the BOE is even as strong today.

Those four are on the verge of bankruptcy, have youth unemployment rates into the sky, and stuck in a slow growth stream for more than 10 years. Look at the USA, Canada, Australia: sailing in reasonable economic growth since 2010. So, the Euro Group is not that useful apparently...

[amogles]

	Quote:
	So tell us, please, oh wise one- who would be your choice to take over who would be your choice to re-unify the country and get the best deal since sliced bread? Pray tell.

Michelle Obama of course.

Who else?

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	amogles
	I wonder what the thresshold is in other EU countries to getting a vote on whether to stay or whether to leave. It seems that the probability of the UK getting a second or even a third vote is way highr than many another country getting even a first.

Right. So that makes them so ready to leave? Or according to some here, so underinformed?

	Quote:	amogles
	Just wondering. Now that the EU officially says we can revoke article 50 and everything will be as if nothing happened. Des that mean we can revoke it and re-aply it the very next day ---- as often as we like --- and that would reset the clock every time giving us more time to negotiate a better deal?

Given the feckless gobshites currently in government I wouldn't be surprised if they make that a strategy.

Counter question - is there an Article where the EU can just say "Enough, you jokers. There's the door, don't let it slam on the way out"?

	Quote:	MusicChick
	Right. So that makes them so ready to leave? Or according to some here, so underinformed?

Would be interesting to know your views on whether you think the British public had sufficient information to make an informed choice on a monumental and permanent change. You might be used to political smoke and mirrors on that scale but it's new territory for some of us...

[amogles]

	Quote:	bowlie
	Ever hear of the Swiss armed forces? Or the Belgium, Spanish?? I think language is not the biggest challenge here.

Pray tell me, when was the last time Belgium won a war that didn't involve shooting natives armed only with spears?

	Quote:	amogles
	I wonder what the thresshold is in other EU countries to getting a vote on whether to stay or whether to leave. It seems that the probability of the UK getting a second or even a third vote is way highr than many another country getting even a first.

Indeed, see Catalonia for details.

Here's something interesting for you. The Welsh devolution referendum was held in 1997, turnout was 50% and it passed 50.3% to 49.7%. Where were the calls for a rerun over that?

	Quote:	MusicChick
	How do you sanction not showing up to vote then?

	Quote:	curley
	With fines.

As in Australia. It's a $100 fine there, I think. Not huge, but enough to make people think and to appreciate the responsibility given to them.

[amogles]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	How does democracy work with compulsory voting? And how does the system follow up with those don't vote? In theory, not a bad idea. Theoretically, we can also assume that people weren't informed. They did not inform themselves. Maybe. Next time when something important comes up, they will. To have to deal with consequences is a way to teach people to come to the urns, without making it compulsory. It's not like that obligation would be implementable, anyways.

I believe some Swiss cantons have complusory voting, or did until not very long ago. Schaffhausen I think is or was one of them.

Citizens who didn't vote were fined. I think it was 5CHF per vote. The administrative costs of collecting the fines was higher than the revenue. I don't think Schaffhausen had higher turnouts at votes than other cantons.

But it was a nice idea, and maybe it kept a very small number of back office workers in a job.