The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

AND TODAY IS THE BIG DAY!!

P!ssing it down in some parts of the UK today which may affect turnout.

Grey vote, working classes not engaged with polling companies, many people without landlines, shy Brexiters, pollsters completely wrong last time, Brexiters more likely to vote.

Vs.

London, Scotland, Postal Votistan, the risk averse, luvvie influence, Westminster influence

Too many unknowns to call this one! Sticking with my original prediction of a slim Remain win.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	StirB
	If an FX Rate change means you can't afford to live abroad any more, should you have really gone in the first place? Seems wreckless in the extreme to gamble on a strong pound year after year for the last 30 years of your life.

I'd rather retire to the Med on a low income than the UK on a higher income purely because of the quality of life. I feel like we hibernate for 5 months of the year in the UK and sink into the annual depression / countdown of X Factor right up til Christmas.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Sticking with my original prediction of a slim Remain win.

Well if we're doing predictions, I'll go 61% Remain.

[marton]

	Quote:	StirB
	Not wanting to inflame things, but reading back the complaints about pensioners abroad not being able to swallow a drop in £. If an FX Rate change means you can't afford to live abroad any more, should you have really gone in the first place? Seems wreckless in the extreme to gamble on a strong pound year after year for the last 30 years of your life.

"If an FX Rate change means you can't afford to live abroad any more" Problem many people have is that their pension is too small to have a reasonable quality of life in UK so they move to a lower cost country rather than be a burden on social services.

"a strong pound" LOL, when was the last time the £ was strong

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Well if we're doing predictions, I'll go 61% Remain.

£ is up today; I vote with you!

[StirB]

Sorry Marton,


Nobody makes the altruistic decision to retire to another country to save the NHS and care homes some work.


People move abroad because the weather is good, the beer is cheap and a UK pension (usually) goes quite far on the costa del x.

[baboon]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Well if we're doing predictions, I'll go 61% Remain.

I'll go with the polls...51% remain.

Until this week I was expecting a narrow exit vote - I feel the risk message has just about started to penetrate.

[Chuff]

Of course there is risk, but this was the one chance we had to go back to forging our own destiny without being shackled to a corrupt and sickly organisation in decline that doesn't give a **** about us (other than our contributions) and would happily take us down into economic hell with them.

Remain with all of its lackeys will win, but it's a crying shame imo.

[marton]

	Quote:	StirB
	Sorry Marton, Nobody makes the altruistic decision to retire to another country to save the NHS and care homes some work. People move abroad because the weather is good, the beer is cheap and a UK pension (usually) goes quite far on the costa del x.

"Nobody makes the altruistic decision" Perhaps I phrased it badly; I meant many people are reluctant to apply for social help and suffer what they see as the associated indignities.

[dodgyken]

	Quote:	marton
	"Nobody makes the altruistic decision" Perhaps I phrased it badly; I meant 3 people are reluctant to apply for social help and suffer what they see as the associated indignities.

I based my amendment to your original post on Warrington.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	I think that the blame can be put on the EU quite legitimately for the boom/bust of Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece. The attempt to shoehorn the different economic situations of these countries into a single currency and single monetary policy was clearly going to end in tears and economists warned of this but the dogma of closer political union overrode the economics. It's not as if the ECB even made any pretense of trying to protect the PIGS. Rates were held low and long to suit Germany and to hell with the PIGS - they let them overheat and bust. Adding insult to injury, they didn't even let Ireland hang the creditors and forced Irish taxpayers to bail out non-Irish bondholders.

Adoption of the Euro meant lower interest rates and easy credit. What happened in Greece, for example, was 15 years of huge real growth (5,6,7% in real growth IIRC) but simultaneously debt in GDP terms increased even faster. Instead of using the opportunity to build a functioning state they used the credit to spend like crazy. Until 2008/09, when the bowl was taken away and they were presented the bill.

To say the EU, who made possible, is to blame ignores completely that it was Greece who decided on how to use the money. It's like blaming your robbed neighbor for leaving his gardening stuff outside, and simultaneously say the thief is free of guilt.

[JoeUK]

The Conversative party is going to be very different whichever way the vote goes. They can bless their lucky stars that they have no serious opposition to worry about at the moment.

	Quote:	JoeUK
	The Conversative party is going to be very different whichever way the vote goes. They can bless their lucky stars that they have no serious opposition to worry about at the moment.

Hopefully they'll split. I think the outcome of this referendum will be more gains for UKIP. With Labour turning its back on the working classes, I expect them to take some scalps come 2020, especially in the north.

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	baboon
	I'll go with the polls...51% remain. Until this week I was expecting a narrow exit vote - I feel the risk message has just about started to penetrate.

I hope the margin is a bit higher, high enough to remain, low enough to express public concern that the EU is going off track, but most importantly, not so low that the referendum gets repeated every 5 years.

[dodgyken]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Hopefully they'll split.

Realistically they won't - and their more pragmatic approach will see them manage the divisions in the ranks more competently than Labour.

Conservatives will be in power until the next recession really hits people's pockets.

The way I see it at the moment it's not going to have any impact.

There is currently no credible opposition to the current Government. The next leader of the Tory party will probably be Boris Johnson.

So if you vote remain, the next leader of the country is very against Europe.

Or if you vote leave you're out anyway.

I fully expect remain to win, albeit close.

What's come out of the last few weeks, is the general distrust of politicians, experts and the rest. But how will that change?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	"If an FX Rate change means you can't afford to live abroad any more" Problem many people have is that their pension is too small to have a reasonable quality of life in UK so they move to a lower cost country rather than be a burden on social services. "a strong pound" LOL, when was the last time the £ was strong

2.60 CHF to £1 & 1.6 euro to the £ early 2000's was way weaker mid 1990's

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Adoption of the Euro meant lower interest rates and easy credit. What happened in Greece, for example, was 15 years of huge real growth (5,6,7% in real growth IIRC) but simultaneously debt in GDP terms increased even faster. Instead of using the opportunity to build a functioning state they used the credit to spend like crazy. Until 2008/09, when the bowl was taken away and they were presented the bill. To say the EU, who made possible, is to blame ignores completely that it was Greece who decided on how to use the money. It's like blaming your robbed neighbor for leaving his gardening stuff outside, and simultaneously say the thief is free of guilt.

This is what I mean by the over-heating. When monetary policy is too loose (in this case aligned to Germany's economy and not PIIGS) the easy credit flows not only to good investment, but pretty much any old crap. The property sector is typically a victim. In theory you can mitigate this to some extent through fiscal policy, but believing you could turn on the taps and that with better government it would all have ended up in successful investments is la-la-land thinking.

The problem is that is a double-bind. The UK has its own CB, the BoE also arguably made a big mistake dropping the rate in Aug 2005, but through the mechanism of exchange rates, there is an automatic stabilization. Since 2008, GBP fell by about 25% to today and the rate dropped in almost a straight line to that level in about 4 months. The speed and automaticity of this adjustment is important.

Odds slashed on Remain 1/7 now. 9/2 for Leave. I think it's all over.

[dodgyken]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Odds slashed on Remain 1/7 now. 9/2 for Leave. I think it's all over.

Labour supporters were saying the same at the election