The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Brits as a rule just speak English, FOM is not useful to the majority. Not wishing to blame this on a foreign language teacher, Why is this?

Yeah, because all these years it's only been multi-lingual Brits moving to Europe to work, live and marry Johnny Furriners, right?

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Brits as a rule just speak English, FOM is not useful to the majority. Not wishing to blame this on a foreign language teacher, Why is this?

Maybe that used to be the case, but almost 40% of Brits now speak a second language and this is on the increase. Perhaps Brexit will put a dampener on this, maybe not - Polish is the most commonly spoken 2nd language, however the next 5 are Punjabi, Urdu, Bengali, Gujurati and Arabic which won't be affected by Brexit, of course.

[Chuff]

	Quote:
	Maybe that used to be the case, but almost 40% of Brits now speak a second language.

Indeed, for example:

1. Scouse (native language)
2. Queens (High/Hoch) English (recently learnt language)

We are still working on teaching the other 60%.

Where I used to teach mod langs, many of our best linguists spoke several languages before they even began with French, German or Spanish. Our school also taught Bengali, Gujurati and Punjabi.

Still in touch with many of my students all over the world in all walks of life.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	First of all, this is an extremely complicated and long legal document. How can you expect all voters to understand this? Also, how many people have read the current proposal?

Of course you can't lay out every detail, but to say the a large portion of the UK is too dumb to understand the proposal and its consequences seems quite patronising.

You're essentially saying that voters don't and can't understand the world they live in. Clearly they can't in every minute detail, nobody does, but that's far from necessary. I rather doubt the Irish or the Swiss, where such votes have been successfully conducted, are that more intelligent.

	Quote:	k_and_e
	Second, what do you do if the deal will be rejected? Stay forever in the EU or try to renegotiate something? You don't know what should be changed exactly to get it accepted.

Contrary to before, the British + NI now know (perhaps just more or less) what will be affected. And they probably have re-built at least part of the diplomatic corps that's necessary for such an undertaking.

Switzerland took ten years to seal the the Bilaterale so if you decide to withdraw this note and have another go later on, be realistic and project at least that long for the transition phase after the actual Brexit. Since the UK will face many hurdles from WTO members, 15 years may be a better timeframe.


The UK has said "A". Nobody forces you to follow up with "B" if this looks like a mistake, whatever "B" may happen to be. Undoing "A" is also an option.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	grumpygrapefruit
	How could you expect voters to understand what Brexit would actually be in the first place without explaining the implications it would have on business, trade and the Northern Ireland Border. All of those things should have been thought and planned out and explained as part of the Brexit vote in the first place.

Some did, or had at least a reason-based opinion.

They were and are labeled project fear.

There was no need to counter their reasoning as long as it was kept in "emotion" territory. All it took was to keep the "believe me", "us vs them" game going.

In a sense this is still the case, IMHO it's what leads you to believe it's all May's fault and that she planned on revoking A50 all along. As if it was by her machinations that her candidacy for PM was eventually unchallenged, and that she intentionally threw the the Tories' majority down the drain last yeear.

I just wonder why you don't add Cameron into the mix, after all he must have known all along what the vote would end up with. Clearly he's behind it all, he must be the puppet master playing everybody else.

[grumpygrapefruit]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Some did, or had at least a reason-based opinion. They were and are labeled project fear. There was no need to counter their reasoning as long as it was kept in "emotion" territory. All it took was to keep the "believe me", "us vs them" game going. In a sense this is still the case, IMHO it's what leads you to believe it's all May's fault and that she planned on revoking A50 all along. As if it was by her machinations that her candidacy for PM was eventually unchallenged, and that she somehow was able to predict last year's election vote that cost the Tories the majority. I just wonder why you don't add Cameron into the mix, after all he must have known all along what the vote would end up with.

I was actually referring to information that the government (ie Cameron) should have given to the public prior to the vote. These are the benefits we have from the EU and this is the cost. If you vote to leave this is what might happen with our negotiations with the EU regarding trade and NI and the options that will be available to us and how long these negotiations might take.

It could have been worded so as to be completely neutral but at least the voters would know what they were voting for. It's clear that many really had little clue as to what the country was in for over the next 5 years or so.

	Quote:	grumpygrapefruit
	I was actually referring to information that the government (ie Cameron) should have given to the public prior to the vote. These are the benefits we have from the EU and this is the cost. If you vote to leave this is what might happen with our negotiations with the EU regarding trade and NI and the options that will be available to us and how long these negotiations might take. It could have been worded so as to be completely neutral but at least the voters would know what they were voting for. It's clear that many really had little clue as to what the country was in for over the next 5 years or so.

100% this

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	grumpygrapefruit
	I was actually referring to information that the government (ie Cameron) should have given to the public prior to the vote. These are the benefits we have from the EU and this is the cost. If you vote to leave this is what might happen with our negotiations with the EU regarding trade and NI and the options that will be available to us and how long these negotiations might take. It could have been worded so as to be completely neutral but at least the voters would know what they were voting for. It's clear that many really had little clue as to what the country was in for over the next 5 years or so.

After 25 years and more of EU/EEA membership the trade diplomat jobs including their backoffices on UK/EU matters must have been moved under the EU umbrella, and the knowledge and expertise with them. Those that didn't get axed altogether that is. As a result all the knowledge was in EU's hands, who perhaps could have produced such a brochure on relatively short notice, but not the UK, not anymore.

The UK would have had to either task the EU or re-acquire the knowledge themselves. The former would have resulted in the brochure's refusal by Leave due to EU's obvious conflict of interest while the latter would have produced a huge amount of sunk cost that would have been necessary to re-build the expertise domestically. Could Cameron have "sold" such spendings to the public in light of recent general economic hardship? Who knows, I doubt it. And of course it would have taken years, didn't Cameron promise the vote by some date?

I have no doubt that this lack of expertise is part of the reason, if not *the* reason, for the messy way May is handling the whole thing. Just listen to the nonsense Davis produced - according to him (I'm paraphrasing) it should have been easier than a walk in the park, and a matter of months to finalise a deal.

[Fish Paste]

I’m listening to parliament.

Corbyn is trying to sink May’s deal.

He really is full of the brown stuff.

He’s just trying to get a GE, not that he’s said what he would do.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Of course you can't lay out every detail, but to say the a large portion of the UK is too dumb to understand the proposal and its consequences seems quite patronising.

To be fair, I've just been reading a couple of twitter news feeds and got distracted by the number of rampant Brexiteers who have the Union flag upside down in their avatars.

	Quote:	Fish Paste
	Corbyn is trying to sink May’s deal.

...which is as effective as chucking ice cubes at the Titanic.
He's only had 2yrs to be the ice berg.

The campaign to remain was run on fear of leaving and the consequences, their was nothing positive about it and this remained true up until and after the vote.


The deal on the table is not good, it is badly drafted and worded as is the actual process for leaving, can we not learn from our mistakes and draft something that holds water ?



The best outcome in my opinion now is for the UK to leave with no agreement, let the dust settle for a few months then both sides can come back and negotiate in positions of strength and knowledge of the actual situation rather than prophecies of dubious quality and come to an agreement which works.



The EU doesn't hold all the cards in their hands, the UK have some too


The EU will run scared that if others members see that the UK can survive outside, they maybe tempted to also try their on luck outside, the difference being the UK makes a difference to the EU whereas many other of the potential leavers don't really make any difference either way.

[Blueangel]

Well this is clear...

	Quote:
	House of Lords‏Verified account @UKHouseofLords RESULT: #HouseofLords votes 321 for, 152 against @LadyBasildon motion to reject no deal outcome and regretting terms of govt deal and future relationship with EU, so motion is agreed 2:20 PM - 14 Jan 2019

https://twitter.com/UKHouseofLords/s...38324106768386

What remains unclear is the size of May's Commons vote defeat tomorrow, but the latest estimate is that the majority of defeat will be 225. That would be the biggest defeat any sitting PM has suffered in over 100yrs, and by a very long way.

[Clocker]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	the latest estimate is that the majority of defeat will be 225. That would be the biggest defeat any sitting PM has suffered in over 100yrs, and by a very long way.

Hopefully that will be the case since the deal clearly does not honour the referendum result, is an excellent one for the EU but a terrible one for the UK. I'm pleased that the majority can see that. May has done nothing but waste time for months, if not years.

[greenmount]

	Quote:
	The campaign to remain was run on fear of leaving and the consequences, their was nothing positive about it and this remained true up until and after the vote. .

On the contrary, if you read carefully other posts here, it seems like people weren't informed very well about the consequences of leaving.

I think the Remain campaign had no chances because the Leave one was a media circus. Too entertaining for the masses, too many emotions stirred up. The Leave vote was an emotional vote. Btw.... in cases like this I always try to put myself into somebody else's place and imagine how would I see it from their perspective. The campaign was so aggressive that I'm sure I would have also considered voting "Leave".

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	greenmount
	On the contrary, if you read carefully other posts here, it seems like people weren't informed very well about the consequences of leaving. I think the Remain campaign had no chances because the Leave one was a media circus. Too entertaining for the masses, too many emotions stirred up. The Leave vote was an emotional vote.

You mean to say that leave voters are stupid?
That makes the UK a country with a lot of stupid people as the ones that didn't vote are even more stupid

[greenmount]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	You mean to say that leave voters are stupid? That makes the UK a country with a lot of stupid people as the ones that didn't vote are even more stupid

I didn't say that, don't twist my words. When pressured by an extremely aggressive campaign, most people react the way they are expected to. I would recommend you some books on mass (crowd) manipulation and crowd psychology. Oh, and of course some of them are stupid but that wasn't the point here.

BTW, what do you think - are all Americans who voted for Trump - stupid?

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	greenmount
	BTW, what do you think - are all Americans who voted for Trump - stupid?

No.



People in the UK had a choice: leave or remain.
People in the US had no choice: Hillary or Trump. Trump is simply the result of a failed political system.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	No. People in the UK had a choice: leave or remain. People in the US had no choice: Hillary or Trump. Trump is simply the result of a failed political system.

But it seems it's exactly the same type of situation - they voted Leave and got themselves into a bigger mess than they expected. When you say "it can't be worse than that" - it can. Although Trump's fans, as well as convinced Brexiteers, would never admit defeat.

	Quote:	k_and_e
	You mean to say that leave voters are stupid? That makes the UK a country with a lot of stupid people as the ones that didn't vote are even more stupid

How smart do you think the average person in the UK is? Half of them are more stupid than that.

Not saying that TV habits are necessarily revealing (although we all suspect they are!), but if you want a clear divide, then look no further than 2017's most viewed programs - half are Blue Planet II and half are Strictly / I'm a Sleb...

https://inews.co.uk/culture/televisi...ogrammes-2017/

Unfortunately, it doesn't show how much of a crossover there was, I'll let you make your own minds up