The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Blueangel]

To be kind of fair to Loz, Brexiteers have been rattling on about Article 24 GATT for the umpteenth time this week. It appears that you can't put scurrilous 'facts' down.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1PH24V

One of the people at the forefront of banging on about the (mis)perceived benefits of Article 24, is Richard Tice. I'm half expecting Tice to be named as Farage's mysterious benefactor who paid for his private flight from London to Strasbourg this week. Quelle surprise!

And before any Brexiteers start spouting that other countries trade solely on W.T.O. rules, that's a lie! It's also not true that Mauritania are the only coulntry to trade on W.T.O. rules, since they rejoined ECOWAS in 2017. So...if the UK crash out of the UK without a deal, they will be the only country in the entire World to trade purely on W.T.O. rules. Deep joy!

	Quote:	Blueangel
	And before any Brexiteers start spouting that other countries trade solely on W.T.O. rules, that's a lie! It's also not true that Mauritania are the only coulntry to trade on W.T.O. rules, since they rejoined ECOWAS in 2017. So...if the UK crash out of the UK without a deal, they will be the only country in the entire World to trade purely on W.T.O. rules. Deep joy!

Only until the UK makes its own trade deals, which it will. Because unlike Mauritania the UK is one of the largest economies in the world.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Only until the UK makes its own trade deals, which it will. Because unlike Mauritania the UK is was one of the largest economies in the world.

ftfy

I hope these deals are finalised before we are all to old to notice.

I refer the honourable gentleman to my post 16615.

[greenmount]

Unfortunately, after I watched Brexit unfold as a result of massive manipulations, I tend to agree with these people.

	Quote:
	Europe 'coming apart before our eyes', say 30 top intellectuals Group of historians and writers publish manifesto warning against rise of populism Fight for Europe – or the wreckers will destroy it Jon Henley in Paris, and Mark Rice-Oxley Fri 25 Jan 2019 15.32 GMT Last modified on Fri 25 Jan 2019 19.09 GMT Liberal values in Europe face a challenge “not seen since the 1930s”, leading intellectuals from 21 countries have said, as the UK lurches towards Brexit and nationalists look set to make sweeping gains in EU parliamentary elections. The group of 30 writers, historians and Nobel laureates declared in a manifesto published in several newspapers, including the Guardian, that Europe as an idea was “coming apart before our eyes”. “We must now will Europe or perish beneath the waves of populism,” the document reads. “We must rediscover political voluntarism or accept that resentment, hatred and their cortege of sad passions will surround and submerge us.” Fight for Europe – or the wreckers will destroy it Bernard-Henri Lévy, Milan Kundera, Salman Rushdie, Elfriede Jelinek, Orhan Pamuk and 25 others Read more They write of their regret that Europe has been “abandoned from across the Channel” – an oblique reference to the drawn-out Brexit process that has arguably brought Anglo-European relations to their lowest point since the second world war. And they say that unless efforts are made to combat a rising tide of populism, the EU elections will be “the most calamitous that we have ever known: victory for the wreckers; disgrace for those who still believe in the legacy of Erasmus, Dante, Goethe, and Comenius; disdain for intelligence and culture; explosions of xenophobia and antisemitism; disaster”. “Abandoned from across the Channel and from across the Atlantic by the two great allies who in the previous century saved it twice from suicide; vulnerable to the increasingly overt manipulations of the master of the Kremlin, Europe as an idea, as will and representation, is coming apart before our eyes,” the text reads. The 800-word paean was drafted by the French philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy. Signatories included the novelists Ian McEwan and Salman Rushdie, the historian Simon Schama and the Nobel prize laureates Svetlana Alexievitch, Herta Müller, Orhan Pamuk and Elfriede Jelinek. Rushdie told the Guardian: “Europe is in greater danger now than at any time in the last 70 years, and if one believes in that idea it’s time to stand up and be counted. “In the UK, I hope parliament may yet have the courage to call for a second referendum. That could rescue the country from the calamity of Brexit and go a long way towards rescuing the EU as well.” McEwan said he had signed the manifesto because he was “very pessimistic” about the current moment, “but try to be hopeful that the zeitgeist will turn”. Sign up to our Brexit weekly briefing Read more Pamuk said the idea of Europe was also important to non-western countries. “Without the idea of Europe, freedom, women’s rights, democracy, egalitarianism is hard to defend in my part of the world. “The historical success of Europe made it easier to defend these ideas and values which are crucial to humanity all over the world,” he said. “There is no Europe besides these values except the Europe of tourism and business. Europe is not a geography first but these ideas. This idea of Europe is under attack.” In theEU elections in May – the first that will not include Britain – most observers predict a rise in support for populist, nationalist or anti-immigration parties. Many of them have made significant gains in national elections, as the centre-right and centre-left that have traditionally dominated Europe’s postwar politics retreat. Matteo Salvini of Italy’s far-right League has described the vote as a straight choice between “the Europe of the elites, banks, finance, immigration and precarious work” and that of “the people and of labour”, pledging to form a Eurosceptic “Italian-Polish axis”. Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has said the elections are a chance to bid farewell “to liberal democracy”. Unlike Eurosceptics in the UK, most European counterparts do not want to leave the EU but to take it over. Leading the charge against the resurgent rightwing populists are the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel. While both have been weakened by domestic problems, this week they renewed their countries’ vows of postwar friendship and warned the lessons of their bloody past were being forgotten. EU officials in Brussels believe it is possible there will be a decisive advance for the populists and gains for pro-European parties, or at least a confusing mix of the two, leaving the populists significantly stronger, but still facing a strong, if disunited, majority of pro-European MEPs. The net result is likely to be a far more complex parliamentary makeup, delicate coalition-building, and a European parliament increasingly unable to pass legislation to deal with major challenges, such as immigration and eurozone reform. While they did not make any practical calls to action, the manifesto’s signatories said they “refuse to resign themselves to this looming catastrophe”. They counted themselves among the “too quiet” European patriots who understand that “three-quarters of a century after the defeat of fascism and 30 years after the fall of the Berlin wall, a new battle for civilisation is under way”. Despite its “mistakes, lapses, and occasional acts of cowardice”, Europe remains “the second home of every free man and woman on the planet”, they say, noting with regret the widely held but mistaken belief of their generation that “the continent would come together on its own, without our labour”. Pro-Europeans “no longer have a choice”, they say. “We must sound the alarm against the arsonists of soul and spirit that, from Paris to Rome, with stops in Barcelona, Budapest, Dresden, Vienna, or Warsaw, are playing with the fire of our freedoms.” The signatories are: Vassilis Alexakis, Svetlana Alexievitch, Anne Applebaum, Jens Christian Grøndahl, David Grossman, Agnès Heller, Elfriede Jelinek, Ismaïl Kadaré, György Konrád, Milan Kundera, Bernard-Henri Lévy, António Lobo Antunes, Claudio Magris, Ian McEwan, Herta Müller, Lyudmila Ulitskaya, Orhan Pamuk, Rob Riemen, Salman Rushdie, Fernando Savater, Roberto Saviano, Eugenio Scalfari, Simon Schama, Peter Schneider, Abdulah Sidran, Leïla Slimani, Colm Tóibín, Mario Vargas Llosa, Adam Michnik and Adam Zagajewski.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-intellectuals

	Quote:	marton
	ftfy I hope these deals are finalised before we are all to old to notice. I refer the honourable gentleman to my post 16615.

Nope, last time I checked the UK is still one of the largest economies in the world. Must try harder.

	Quote:	greenmount
	Unfortunately, after I watched Brexit unfold as a result of massive manipulations, I tend to agree with these people. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-intellectuals

So the answer to rising Euroscepism is MORE Europe? Let’s see how that works out.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Nope, last time I checked the UK is still one of the largest economies in the world. Must try harder.

United Kingdom is the fifth-largest national economy in the world measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP),
ninth-largest measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), and
twenty second-largest measured by GDP per capita,

Of course Brexit has not happened yet

[lewton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Nope, last time I checked the UK is still one of the largest economies in the world. Must try harder.

So you don't believe that countries will take advantage of the UK's need to sign some trade deals fast to get concessions that normally the UK wouldn't agree to?

	Quote:	lewton
	So you don't believe that countries will take advantage of the UK's need to sign some trade deals fast to get concessions that normally the UK wouldn't agree to?

Who though? I’d be really interested to see who, other than China, the US and the EU has the power to take advantage over the UK? Japan perhaps, but I think you’ll find Japan is very pragmatic where these matters are concerned. China too, they want to continue exporting their stuff. China even has a free trade deal with Switzerland.

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Who though? I’d be really interested to see who, other than China, the US and the EU has the power to take advantage over the UK? Japan perhaps, but I think you’ll find Japan is very pragmatic where these matters are concerned. China too, they want to continue exporting their stuff. China even has a free trade deal with Switzerland.

If only one thing comes from this shitshow, it’s the unassailable fact that the current muppets in government couldn’t effectively negotiate a bag of pick n’ mix, and the rest of the world knows this because it has been played out blow by blow in the global media. Any nation with even a modicum of negotiating power will nail the UK to whatever kind of deal it dictates and the UK will be falling over itself to sign it to prove to the moron Brexters it ‘can trade without the EU’. Desperate.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Who though? I’d be really interested to see who, other than China, the US and the EU has the power to take advantage over the UK? Japan perhaps, but I think you’ll find Japan is very pragmatic where these matters are concerned. China too, they want to continue exporting their stuff. China even has a free trade deal with Switzerland.

	Quote:	marton
	According to an internal memo in Whitehall, UK has failed to replicate almost all of the EU’s 40 existing trade agreements and they will not be near completion by March 29. Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, and other Brexit campaigners had claimed they would be easy to copy and all be ready before UK left the EU. Fox had said "believe me they will all be ready for one second after midnight in March 2019"

Unfortunately what is happening in the real world does not reflect your rosy view.

If everything was as easy as you believe then replicating the EU’s existing trade agreements would have been done long ago.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Sandgrounder
	Any nation with even a modicum of negotiating power will nail the UK to whatever kind of deal it dictates and the UK will be falling over itself to sign it to prove to the moron Brexters it ‘can trade without the EU’. Desperate.

Desperate indeed, and the irony is that they could always sign their own trade deals with customs union partners. Others have...

	Quote:
	Faisal Islam‏Verified account @faisalislam Jan 16 And here, it being Wednesday, I obviously bring up the fact that Turkey, in a customs union with the EU has done independent trade deals with Georgia and Moldova with Cabinet minister and key PM ally @JBrokenshire

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/stat...52879564726273

[bowlie]

Haven’t been here for weeks ...

How goes the Great British Break Off?

Do we know any mote than we did the day after the referendum?

Just curious!

[StirB]

	Quote:	bowlie
	Haven’t been here for weeks ... How goes the Great British Break Off? Do we know any mote than we did the day after the referendum? Just curious!

We know that Brexiteers are excellent at shouting "la la la" with their fingers in their ears in the face of overwhelming evidence.

[Blueangel]

Larry The Cat won't stay in No.10 at the same time as Chris Grayling.
It only costs £10k to get BoJo to promote your company and products.
It's impossible for a UKIP leader to have a British spouse.
Osbourne and Gove are bezzie mates again, and Cameron and BoJo are bezzie mates again, but Cameron still hates Gove.
Some (alleged) Labour supporters are giving a presenter of 'Countdown' a harder time than Theresa May.
Corbyn has been found to share DNA with a lettuce that's been left at the back of the fridge so long that it's gone brown and slimy.

Oh....and when we found out about Cameron shoving his dick in a pig's head, little did we know that was the least of our concerns

[StirB]

Even The Times is bricking it now...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/m...exit-50zw9b9gv

	Quote:	marton
	Unfortunately what is happening in the real world does not reflect your rosy view.

The UK government doesn’t agree.

Most EU trade agreements will be replicated by Brexit day - trade department minister

[StirB]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The UK government doesn’t agree. Most EU trade agreements will be replicated by Brexit day - trade department minister

Well, they have been extremely competent and truthful until now, so why should we doubt them.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	StirB
	Even The Times is bricking it now... https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/m...exit-50zw9b9gv

Are you suspicious of the timing of this leak about Operation Yellowhammer? I can't help but think it's designed to get her own MPs to vote for her deal, because she's framing the next vote in parliament as No Deal vs Her Deal.

If the PM really had balls, she'd tell the ERG to publish a full list of their members or STFU, then have the proposed series of votes r.e. each possible avenue that the house can take. It's the only way to really know what they think. The last 6 weeks has just been time wasting.

[StirB]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Are you suspicious of the timing of this leak about Operation Yellowhammer? I can't help but think it's designed to get her own MPs to vote for her deal, because she's framing the next vote in parliament as No Deal vs Her Deal. If the PM really had balls, she'd tell the ERG to publish a full list of their members or STFU, then have the proposed series of votes r.e. each possible avenue that the house can take. It's the only way to really know what they think. The last 6 weeks has just been time wasting.

Only 6 weeks? How long have Brexit secretaries been sat with their thumbs up their arses now? Couple of years?