The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	"Actively Planning" is exactly that. The point is that even at this late stage only 16% of businesses have plans in place. The vast majority do not. And this is in the UK where they've been hearing nothing but Brexit for the last 3 years. Now imagine the plans on the EU side to mitigate no deal Brexit?

16% has relocation plans. That is not the same as 16% has plans.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	"Actively Planning" is exactly that. The point is that even at this late stage only 16% of businesses have plans in place. The vast majority do not. And this is in the UK where they've been hearing nothing but Brexit for the last 3 years. Now imagine the plans on the EU side to mitigate no deal Brexit?

That is not what it says. What it actually says is that 16% of business have plans to relocate (plus the others thinking about it). No mention of how many have other plans to deal with it that don't involve relocation.

Oh and perhaps also relevant is that only a minority of all UK concerns have an export business. 9% of SMEs, I guess once you include large companies that might jump to 15% to 20% (remember each company counts as "1" in these surveys, no allowance for size).

https://assets.publishing.service.go...-exporters.pdf

	Quote:	Loz1983
	"Actively Planning" is exactly that. The point is that even at this late stage only 16% of businesses have plans in place. The vast majority do not. And this is in the UK where they've been hearing nothing but Brexit for the last 3 years. Now imagine the plans on the EU side to mitigate no deal Brexit?

You're right, 16% of companies with fully fledged plans to leave with another 13% actively (note actively) planning to do so it isn't worth worrying about. After all, the EU needs us way more than we need them.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	"Actively Planning" is exactly that. The point is that even at this late stage only 16% of businesses have plans in place. The vast majority do not. And this is in the UK where they've been hearing nothing but Brexit for the last 3 years. Now imagine the plans on the EU side to mitigate no deal Brexit?

If you read the links you will see this survey was about "are firms planning to relocate because of Brexit".

The survey was not about "do firms have plans for Brexit" so your statement "Virtually no businesses, on both sides, have made any serious Brexit planning" has no evidence to support it and your conclusion "only 16% of businesses have plans in place" is incorrect.

[Troublawesome]

Seriously Marton? Seriously?

The European Council says EU ambassadors have agreed that UK citizens should be given visa-free travel to the Schengen area for a short stay after Brexit

Translation: EU realise the cost to Spanish economy if the annual migration of tattooed, red faced, booze soaked Brits to Torremolinos is hindered in any way.

[curley]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The European Council says EU ambassadors have agreed that UK citizens should be given visa-free travel to the Schengen area for a short stay after Brexit Translation: EU realise the cost to Spanish economy if the annual migration of tattooed, red faced, booze soaked Brits to Torremolinos is hindered in any way.

Well, I know Palma would more than welcome a "complication" like that.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The European Council says EU ambassadors have agreed that UK citizens should be given visa-free travel to the Schengen area for a short stay after Brexit Translation: EU realise the cost to Spanish economy if the annual migration of tattooed, red faced, booze soaked Brits to Torremolinos is hindered in any way.

Do you think making them stand in line with a bit of paper at the border would have made a difference? Imagine the consternation of them now not being able to bash out a Facebook rant about the indignity of being treated like cattle. There will be complaints - you wait.

[greenmount]

	Quote:
	Do you think making them stand in line with a bit of paper at the border would have made a difference? Imagine the consternation of them now not being able to bash out a Facebook rant about the indignity of being treated like cattle. There will be complaints - you wait.

I think UK needs EU and EU needs UK. We're all so tense and sensitive over this subject that we forgot to relax a little and see things in a more pragmatic perspective.

	Quote:	greenmount
	I think UK needs EU and EU needs UK. We're all so tense and sensitive over this subject that we forgot to relax a little and see things in a more pragmatic perspective.

I think it's just the painful irony that Brexiters were squawking at every opportunity that they wanted no part of the EU then are losing their minds with glee when they are able to still do stuff, post-Brexit, they could do under the EU. As if it's some kind of victory.

[YuropFlyer]

End of next month is it happening. We just don't know what yet. British planing at it's very best. No Brexit, Brexit but Britain basically staying in everything (minus actually getting a say), or a hard Brexit. All possible. And businesses need to prepare for everything. Nuts!

By the way, regarding visiting visa-free, that was kinda expected - one of the few things that absolutely no one should be surprised about (and unless the UK economy completely breaks down and millions of UK refugees tries to storm the channel to France, will stay that way indefinitely)

	Quote:	greenmount
	I think UK needs EU and EU needs UK. We're all so tense and sensitive over this subject that we forgot to relax a little and see things in a more pragmatic perspective.

Yes, however it is easier to be pragmatic if you are not directly affected in so many ways. If you have just lost your job because your employer has relocated abroad, it is perhaps more difficult to be calm and positive about the benefits.

But this is also an illustration of the British two party system- where the First Past the Post system of election creates 'strong' governement in most instances- and where a very large proportion of the population is just ignored and feels unrepresented- and see-saw politics.

This is really exarcebated at the moment, as the Labour Party is not opposing effectively the Conservatives, with Corbyn sitting forever on the fence and now insisting that he could renegotiate a new Deal, cake and eat it with unicorns- all the rights but none of the responsibilities ... or help May do that.

The 48%, which are now demographically quite a bit more, and quite a bit more again as so many have changed their mind - find themselves without any political party that supports their view - in a vacuum. The Lib Dems and the Greens (Caroline Lucas being their only MP due to FPP system)- are the only ones in opposition- but the political system does not give them an effective voice. British Politics does NOT lead to cooperation or cross party collaboration and solution finding- at all. The specifities of the British Political system are difficult to grasp from the outside, as it is so different, with NO proportional representation at all.

	Quote:
	The Lib Dems and the Greens (Caroline Lucas being their only MP due to FPP system)- are the only ones in opposition

*cough* SNP has 3 times the seats than those two combined *cough*

[marton]

	Quote:	marton
	If you read the links you will see this survey was about "are firms planning to relocate because of Brexit". The survey was not about "do firms have plans for Brexit" so your statement "Virtually no businesses, on both sides, have made any serious Brexit planning" has no evidence to support it and your conclusion "only 16% of businesses have plans in place" is incorrect.

If you still believe UK firms are not planning for Brexit then read "U.K. Factories Stockpile at Record Pace as Brexit Jitters Grow, Companies’ inventory holdings grew in January at the quickest rate in the 27-year history of IHS Markit’s survey"

	Quote:
	*cough* SNP has 3 times the seats than those two combined *cough*

But they don't stand for many English seats though.

	Quote:
	But they don't stand for many English seats though.

More's the pity. They could probably rule down to about York...like the good old days

[Blueangel]

For anyone with a serious interest in what could happen in the coming years, the first chapter of Ian Dunt's revised edition of 'Brexit: What The Hell Happens Now?', is available to read here...

https://www.book2look.com/book/djJruxLN3y

Page 6 is a doozy

	Quote:
	*cough* SNP has 3 times the seats than those two combined *cough*

Yep, of course, I had my English hat on- mea culpa. So all of them together, would stand a chance ... if only Labour would oppose.

[Fish Paste]

	Quote:
	Yep, of course, I had my English hat on- mea culpa. So all of them together, would stand a chance ... if only Labour would oppose.

Labour wants Brexit.

[fatmanfilms]

A UK-US free trade deal could boost national output by £80 billion and cut UK prices by 8 per cent, what's not to like?

https://brexitcentral.com/uk-us-free...Wr8HolieV8huD4