The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Clocker]

	Quote:	Odile
	How many people from NI do you know well and talk to

None, but that isn't the point. I just wanted to mention this possibility.
It must be up to the people of Northern Ireland (and only them) to be able to vote on what they want. The main problem I have read is that the timing isn't quite right.

https://www.politico.eu/article/unit...fication-vote/

[Odile]

Sorry Clocker, but it is very much the point. If you did talk to people from NI/Ulster - you would realise this is just not an option. Not for at least 3, 4, 5 generations.

What you or I think about it is totally irrelevant.

[Swisstree]

	Quote:	Clocker
	No, not at all. Another option is leave with no deal, with the Irish border issue unresolved. Both UK and Ireland refuse to implement any border checks whatsoever and the whole thing is just left to flop about... until one day there is enough evidence that the people of Northern Ireland would like a referendum on reuniting with Ireland. How about that option?

Flop about is a very apt term to describe Brexit.

Deep breath.. Monday tomorrow and another week when anything could happen.
We could even see Boris rummaging about in some dustbins.. oh wait..

[Clocker]

	Quote:	Odile
	this is just not an option. Not for at least 3, 4, 5 generations.

A referendum is an option and always will be. I think it will come much sooner than the time frame you are mentioning here. Whether it comes in time for Brexit is another matter and is doubtful.
What the result would be is also another matter. But they should at least have their say. After all Brexit and the referendum result particularly in Northern Ireland has changed things.

	Quote:	John William
	Of course the Leavers will be harking back to the Good Old Days of the Falklands War, the Cod War, the War of Jenkins Ear, the British Raj, the White Cliffs of Dover and WW2 accompanied by Dame Vera Lynn's greatest hits. In fact they even named one of the Woolwich Car Ferries. that could be pressed into cross channel hard Brexit service, The Dame Vera Lynn. I can just picture the Brexiteers now, all swelled up with emotion as the Dame Vera Lynn embarks on hard Brexit duties in the Channel. The Dame Vera Lynn vehicle & passenger ferry enters service

	Quote:	John William
	I see HMG and Whitehall have surpassed themselves in their 'No deal' hard Brexit planning with Cold War bunkers coming out of moth balls, transition to war plans and the emergency powers act being readied in the event of No deal Brexit riots and a possible Brexit rebellion in London. The Queen and other members of the Royal Family as well as the British Cabinet and senior government ministers will be evacuated to Turnstile, Burlington or whatever code name is appropriate for the secret government bunker from where Theresa May hopes to deliver her final Hard Brexit plans to the rest of the country, courtesy of the BBC's wartime broadcasting service. Sunday Express - Revealed Secret plan to evacuate the Queen if no deal Brexit sparks London Riots All I can say is I'm glad I held onto to my parents copy of the 1980's HMSO publication of Protect & Survive.

	Quote:	YuropFlyer
	I think now would be the right time for the EU to stop being nice. Tell the UK that it got two options left: 1) Stay in the EU, but with all EU agencies gone for good (oops) and the British discount no longer valid (ooooooops!) 2) Hard Brexit. Full support for Ireland to unite and Scotland to secede (and becoming EU member) from whatever left of the UK. Zero cooperation besides whats mandatory by WTO. All dropped in leaflats from some Me Bf-109 aircrafts flying over London re-painted with an EU flag on the tail. Just to show they're serious.

Insults, threats, apocalyptic tales and tears are pretty much all the Remainers have left folks!

Only 53 days to go. Magnificent.

p.s. The Royal Family stayed in London throughout the Blitz, I think the protests of a few bedwetters won't see them off.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Insults, threats, apocalyptic tales and tears are pretty much all the Remainers have left folks! Only 53 days to go. Magnificent. p.s. The Royal Family stayed in London throughout the Blitz, I think the protests of a few bedwetters won't see them off.

Versus jingoism and optimism without foundation.

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Insults, threats, apocalyptic tales and tears are pretty much all the Remainers have left folks! Only 53 days to go. Magnificent.

The delusion that "Lalalala everything is going to be fine" is still being shrieked out by the Brexiters, especially the ones tucked away safe from the UK and, well, Brexit.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	p.s. The Royal Family stayed in London throughout the Blitz, I think the protests of a few bedwetters won't see them off.

So the newsreels of the day kept saying.

[StirB]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	p.s. The Royal Family stayed in London throughout the Blitz, I think the protests of a few bedwetters won't see them off.

The Germans were hardly likely to attack their own.

[Odile]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Insults, threats, apocalyptic tales and tears are pretty much all the Remainers have left folks!

Oh, it's the remainers who are threatening violence on the streets and riots, is it. Really?

Government policy is clear: never give in to threats of violence or terrorism.

[baboon]

	Quote:	Sandgrounder
	So the newsreels of the day kept saying.

Well in the daytime anyway. Nights they were safely tucked up in Windsor Castle.

[Blueangel]

Has anyone else received an email from Electoral Services this morning?

I've been asked to renew my postal vote registration, though this wasn't to be renewed until much later in the year. Hmmm...

[VenusC]

	Quote:	Odile
	Oh, it's the remainers who are threatening violence on the streets and riots, is it. Really? Government policy is clear: never give in to threats of violence or terrorism.

Slightly irrelevant, but: would the leavers have threatened to do the same if the remain had won? Or would they have simply winged and whined on the sidelines?

[Odile]

Farage certainly said that a narrow win, like 48% to 52% would not be the end of the matter by a long chalk. So probably.

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	VenusC
	Slightly irrelevant, but: would the leavers have threatened to do the same if the remain had won? Or would they have simply winged and whined on the sidelines?

I think it's more complex than that. There are also leave voters protesting the no-deal scenario because it's too damaging to the majority.

If Remain had won it would all have calmed down by now because nothing would have changed and the referendum is now more than 2.5 years in the past.

I imagine Leave campaigners would have cobbled together a more palatable referendum by now which may have ensnared voters teetering on the edge of pro- and against EU. Who knows?

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Sandgrounder
	The delusion that "Lalalala everything is going to be fine" is still being shrieked out by the Brexiters, especially the ones tucked away safe from the UK

While sticking their fingers in their ears. Even if they listened, it seems that no amount of information will change the views of some anyway..ah, the level of dissonance..

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	Fish Paste
	There are approx 200,000 people of voting age in Sunderland, 300k overall. Even if everyone at Nissan and associated businesses voted Remain, it wasn’t enough. Sunderland is Labour. Sunderland voted Leave. Another reason Labour have not opposed Brexit over the last 2 years, only ‘we’ll get you a better deal’(a better Brexit, but still Bexit). Labour, in my view, are unelectable after this. All those young people who rushed to join the Labour party to vote in Jeremy and Remain have been sorely betrayed. That’s a whole demographic voting LibDem/Green next time around.

yes, but that factory supports a hell of a lot more people then just the ones working there, most of the employees will have partners, children etc so say 20k direct people, then all the local suppliers, iirc the last estimate was 1m people employed directly and indirectly in car manufacturing in the uk, that's a huge % of the total uk workforce.

so yes, they have voted themselves out of a job, now the EU have a free trade deal with japan the writing is well and truly on the wall for Nissan, Honda & toyota employees in the uk. no benefit at all for any of them to make cars in the uk now (not to mention nissan is largely owned by the french)

Saw locals being interviewed on tv, proudly saying they voted leave, there really is no hope for some people.

I see Ford is also cutting large amounts of jobs in wales too.

btw this is how sunderland voted

From the 134,400 votes cast, Leave received 82,394 and Remain polled 51,930.

	Quote:	bigblue2
	yes, but that factory supports a hell of a lot more people then just the ones working there, most of the employees will have partners, children etc so say 20k direct people, then all the local suppliers, iirc the last estimate was 1m people employed directly and indirectly in car manufacturing in the uk, that's a huge % of the total uk workforce. so yes, they have voted themselves out of a job, now the EU have a free trade deal with japan the writing is well and truly on the wall for Nissan, Honda & toyota employees in the uk. no benefit at all for any of them to make cars in the uk now (not to mention nissan is largely owned by the french) Saw locals being interviewed on tv, proudly saying they voted leave, there really is no hope for some people. I see Ford is also cutting large amounts of jobs in wales too. btw this is how sunderland voted From the 134,400 votes cast, Leave received 82,394 and Remain polled 51,930.

In or out of the EU, this would have likely happened anyway thanks to the free trade deal. What's a far bigger factor however is the death of diesel motors that's currently taking place. There's a hammer blow that's about to land across Europe and the Germans will be most exposed. It's not just the car manufacturers but the thousands of sub-suppliers that will be affected.


Falling diesel sales more than Brexit behind Nissan's X-Trail decision

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	In or out of the EU, this would have likely happened anyway thanks to the free trade deal. What's a far bigger factor however is the death of diesel motors that's currently taking place. There's a hammer blow that's about to land across Europe and the Germans will be most exposed. It's not just the car manufacturers but the thousands of sub-suppliers that will be affected. Falling diesel sales more than Brexit behind Nissan's X-Trail decision

One positive thing about this whole Brexit thing is that Brexiters have had over 2.5 years to perfect the art of coming up with the most bizarre reasoning to explain away every negative assertion about the effect of leaving the EU.

Apparently there is not one single bad thing about leaving the EU, nobody on the Brexit side was wrong. About anything. At all. Ever.

When politics goes extreme it does some weird stuff to people. I don't think I could ever get to that level of utter blind and defensive faith.

Yes, I would have voted Remain but I'm not blind enough to defend the EU as infallible, just the better of the choices to be in or out.

[Odile]

I believe most who voted Remain felt the same- better in, sit at top table and reform from within.

It's good to have real factual advice from Loz, who knows much better than the CEO of Nissan. Of course it makes sense re Diesel becoming less popular in Europe, but he says very clearly that Brexit also played a big part in decision.

But of course, it won't be just Nissan:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...6ECLNSRITNHUEE

We hear now of the threat of violence by Leavers, whipped up by Farage, and also EDL and BF... and it is a real concern.

But that will be nothing compared to the riots when the most vulnerable people, like those in so many Northern areas and others- realise they have been had- and that they are losing jobs in drove, social services cut, NHS going to pot and police and security are unable to cope, etc, etc. It will take a while for the **it to hit the fan, but it will - it surely will.

Of course the Leavers who voted from the safety of Switzerland won't mind - it won't bother them at all.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Sandgrounder
	When politics goes extreme it does some weird stuff to people. I don't think I could ever get to that level of utter blind and defensive faith. .

Precisely!
After 30yrs of thinking Jonny Depp was the coolest guy on the planet, he did The Rum Diaries and left Vanessa for Amber Herd. No Jonny! Just no!!!! He crossed the line 😁