The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:
	That look when your mum and dad come home from parents evening.

They must've had a competition.

Tusk: Cameras! Serious face now, Theresa, serious face.

[marton]

	Quote:	baboon
	Interesting piece here basically rubbishing the dire predictions of e-day shortages (completely agree btw - there might be some hiccups but nothing as drastic as some are claiming), focusing instead on the longer term and how the EU are likely to, erm...encourage the UKs few remaining industries to relocate. https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ain-industries

All depends on how the French handle the situation.

It is likely there will be delays due to the extended Customs processing times.
If the French play it easy and once a substantial queue builds up they start to wave the trucks through then no problem.

If they insist on checking every truck then it depends in turn on how willing they are to give priority to trucks carrying perishable goods.

I know from experience that if they start checking every vehicle at the nearest Swiss/German border point then Km long queues build up in minutes.
These border points have only a tiny fraction of the traffic volumes seen in Calais.

[bowlie]

It won’t take a lot to lengthen the queues. Under current rules immigration officials are required to stamp non-schengen country’s passports on entry/exit. That is currently waived for EU member states citizens.

This doesn’t take longer than 30-45 seconds per passport. Less than a minute for each of the xxx thousand truck drivers every day. Unless they extend this waiver, and has anybody actually thought of this, there will be longer queues.

As the UK imports 60% of their fresh produce from the UK (probably 80% in March) that will be the first sign of a problem. And with the law of supply and demand prices will increase with shortages.

Get out the popcorn.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	bowlie
	It won’t take a lot to lengthen the queues. Under current rules immigration officials are required to stamp non-schengen country’s passports on entry/exit. That is currently waived for EU member states citizens. This doesn’t take longer than 30-45 seconds per passport. Less than a minute for each of the xxx thousand truck drivers every day. Unless they extend this waiver, and has anybody actually thought of this, there will be longer queues. As the UK imports 60% of their fresh produce from the UK (probably 80% in March) that will be the first sign of a problem. And with the law of supply and demand prices will increase with shortages. Get out the popcorn.

Nonsense, I am in & out of Schengen all the time with a non Schengen UK passport.

The EU court of justice just ruled that it’s perfectly acceptable to move to another EU country and help yourself to their family benefits. No employment required.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The EU court of justice just ruled that it’s perfectly acceptable to move to another EU country and help yourself to their family benefits. No employment required.

Well if someone uses FMOP to move to another EU country then why should their family suffer by losing their benefits?

	Quote:	marton
	Well if someone uses FMOP to move to another EU country then why should their family suffer by losing their benefits?

Why should they be allowed to help themselves to another county’s benefits system to which they’ve not contributed?

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Why should they be allowed to help themselves to another county’s benefits system to which they’ve not contributed?

It is a common market so if one country spends more, another country spends less; so overall within the EU it balances out.
If a country believes it is paying an unfair amount in benefits to such people then it needs to apply for a reduction in its EU budget contribution.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	marton
	It is a common market so if one country spends more, another country spends less; so overall within the EU it balances out.

if income in all countries would be the equal, then yes.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Why should they be allowed to help themselves to another county’s benefits system to which they’ve not contributed?

By ‘help themselves’ don’t you think ‘meet the criteria’ would be a bit less dog-whistle hysteria?

This is partly why I just can’t get on board with the whole populist shrieky stuff. It’s so ridiculous it almost becomes a parody of itself.

[22 yards]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Nonsense, I am in & out of Schengen all the time with a non Schengen UK passport.

	Quote:	bowlie
	It won’t take a lot to lengthen the queues. Under current rules immigration officials are required to stamp non-schengen country’s passports on entry/exit. That is currently waived for EU member states citizens.

I think you'll find that, like it or not, the UK is currently a member state of the EU. That is actually the crux of bowlie's post.

	Quote:
	By ‘help themselves’ don’t you think ‘meet the criteria’ would be a bit less dog-whistle hysteria? This is partly why I just can’t get on board with the whole populist shrieky stuff. It’s so ridiculous it almost becomes a parody of itself.

No, I mean exactly what I wrote.

[marton]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	if income in all countries would be the equal, then yes.

Of course, there are many anomalies. If people who want to improve the lot of their families move to countries with better family benefits then should we blame them or blame the lack of uniformity across the EU?

It is not so black and white, moving to a country with better family benefits likely means the cost of living is also higher so the net benefit may not be so good.

As someone already posted, Swiss people who go to work in EU countries and later retire here are likely to have much smaller pensions than the "stay-at-homes"!

	Quote:	Loz1983
	No, I mean exactly what I wrote.

On balance I think I would have been disappointed if you hadn’t.

	Quote:
	On balance I think I would have been disappointed if you hadn’t.

Populist, shrieky stuff? Nah, it’s the truth, and now it’ll only get worse. It’s why we’re winning the argument.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Yes it is. So leben wir vom deutschen Kindergeld

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Populist, shrieky stuff? Nah, it’s the truth, and now it’ll only get worse. It’s why we’re winning the argument.

The good news is Brexit is likely to curtail this. Given that 6/10 poorest regions in Northern Europe are in the UK, I am sure the EU will be breathing a sigh of relief at the prospect of not being compelled to accept their denizens.

[baboon]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Why should they be allowed to help themselves to another county’s benefits system to which they’ve not contributed?

Actually he very much had contributed. From your link:

	Quote:
	Mr Bogatu pursued an activity as an employed person in Ireland between 2003 and 2009

	Quote:	baboon
	Actually he very much had contributed. From your link:

I’m not interested in the individual case, so he was employed for six years then unemployed for the next six. Probably once he realised how much he could make by not working. I was however rather more concerned by the ruling.

	Quote:
	Therefore, the Court concludes that in order to be eligible to receive family benefits in the competent Member State in respect of children living in another Member State, it is not necessary for a person either to pursue an activity as an employed person in the former Member State or to be in receipt of cash benefits from that Member State because or as a consequence of such activity.

[baboon]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I’m not interested in the individual case, so he was employed for six years then unemployed for the next six. Probably once he realised how much he could make by not working. I was however rather more concerned by the ruling.

...which very much still doesn't say (and what you are implying) that he could simply rock up fresh of the plane from Romania and claim child benefit there and then. Regulations and other rulings make it clear this is not the case; what this actually says is that once he has been employed in Ireland and contributed, then he cannot be discriminated against because of his nationality.

As to your second sentence - that is simply your massive prejudice speaking. You don't know.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	baboon
	...which very much still doesn't say (and what you are implying) that he could simply rock up fresh of the plane from Romania and claim child benefit there and then. Regulations and other rulings make it clear this is not the case; what this actually says is that once he has been employed in Ireland and contributed, then he cannot be discriminated against because of his nationality. As to your second sentence - that is simply your massive prejudice speaking. You don't know.

Wait up. The guy is in Ireland, his children in another EU state. The ruling is that the children in the other EU state should be entitled to Irish family benefits (as if they were living in Ireland).


Makes sense actually.