The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Blueangel]

PM's plan:

1) Second meaningful vote by March 12th.
2) If govt hasn't won it by then it'll table a motion for next day on whether House wants no-deal.
3) If House rejects no-deal the govt will on next day bring forward motion on "short limited extension".

Slight problem, the Lords have already emphatically rejected 'no deal'. That's a waste of a day.

What will delaying achieve? There's been two and a half years to negotiate, there is no better deal to be had. The EU doesn't negotiate which is why we're leaving in the first place.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The EU doesn't negotiate which is why we're leaving in the first place.

I like the bit where they refused to negotiate and forced a trade deal on Japan at gunpoint.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	What will delaying achieve? There's been two and a half years to negotiate, there is no better deal to be had. The EU doesn't negotiate which is why we're leaving in the first place.

Possibly the Euro elections in May will see a Euro-wide swing to right of centre parties and maybe a EU that will be more willing to offer the UK more favourable terms.

This is a very long shot though, as none of the front runners in any of the countries have made any statements or promises to that effect AFAIK. Some have criticized the present EU negotiating team but they have not said what they would have done differently.

OTOH, I don't think the EU will be willing to let things drag on that long, and even if there is an extension, it will be of limited duration.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	Possibly the Euro elections in May will see a Euro-wide swing to right of centre parties and maybe a EU that will be more willing to offer the UK more favourable terms. This is a very long shot though, as none of the front runners in any of the countries have made any statements or promises to that effect AFAIK. Some have criticized the present EU negotiating team but they have not said what they would have done differently. OTOH, I don't think the EU will be willing to let things drag on that long, and even if there is an extension, it will be of limited duration.

Anybody know if the UK MEPs will be able to stand for the EU elections in May assuming Brexit is delayed?
And if so will Farage continue to benefit from this gravy train?

[MidfieldGeneral]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	What will delaying achieve? There's been two and a half years to negotiate, there is no better deal to be had. The EU doesn't negotiate which is why we're leaving in the first place.

What exactly should the EU negotiate?

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Anybody know if the UK MEPs will be able to stand for the EU elections in May assuming Brexit is delayed? And if so will Farage continue to benefit from this gravy train?

If the UK is still a full member at the time of the election, it would stand to reason that the UK will also be able to elect MEPs.

This would obviously be costly and rather futile if the UK were to withdraw shortly afterwards, so it stands to reason that both sides want to avoid such a scenario.

OTOH, Farage is no longer in UKIP, and his new party isn't really established yet, so it is not at all a foregone conclusion that he would indeed get re-elected.

[curley]

Looking for something else, I came accross Bertolt Brecht:

<<Wäre es da nicht doch einfacher, die Regierung löste das Volk auf und wählte ein anderes?>>

Would it not be easier for the governement to dissolve the people and elect an other one?

Now that might be a solution here?

[amogles]

	Quote:	curley
	Looking for something else, I came accross Bertolt Brecht: <<Wäre es da nicht doch einfacher, die Regierung löste das Volk auf und wählte ein anderes?>> Would it not be easier for the governement to dissolve the people and elect an other one? Now that might be a solution here?

You mean, like put Teresa May in charge of Germany?

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	marton
	And if so will Farage continue to benefit from this gravy train?

I can't provide a link right now, sorry, but please check out his ramblings on Sky's All Out Politics show with Adam Boulton this morning. If he wants a holiday, I'll happily send him to one of remotest regions on earth

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I can't provide a link right now, sorry, but please check out his ramblings on Sky's All Out Politics show with Adam Boulton this morning. If he wants a holiday, I'll happily send him to one of remotest regions on earth

His interviews are always a joy to watch. What a bellend.

Another one that lets his anger and indignation get the better of his argument.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	PM's plan: 1) Second meaningful vote by March 12th. 2) If govt hasn't won it by then it'll table a motion for next day on whether House wants no-deal. 3) If House rejects no-deal the govt will on next day bring forward motion on "short limited extension". Slight problem, the Lords have already emphatically rejected 'no deal'. That's a waste of a day.

That sounds as if we're heading for (3) as neither (1) nor (2) are likely to find majorities.

	Quote:	amogles
	That sounds as if we're heading for (3) as neither (1) nor (2) are likely to find majorities.

I must admit all this talk of delays is making me go a distinct shade of gammon. Still, looking at the sequencing, I reckon no-deal is very much on the table.

[curley]

	Quote:	amogles
	You mean, like put Teresa May in charge of Germany?

Where does Brecht mention replacing or swapping?

A new people .... two from Sweden, two from Denmark ...... two from Switzerland, two from Spain ..... two from Venezuela, two from Kongo ..... two from .... etc. etc.

If I had any money, I'd put it on the UK still being in the EU on March 30th.

Heck, I'd put it on the UK being in the EU in 2029!

But who doesn't love a nice bit of theatre, eh?

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I must admit all this talk of delays is making me go a distinct shade of gammon. Still, looking at the sequencing, I reckon no-deal is very much on the table.

Most businesses are dead against this and May doesn't want to be left with no nice cushy boards to sit on once she's kicked out of Number 10, does she?

She'll be forced to live off hubby and his hedge funds.

[curley]

	Quote:
	If I had any money, I'd put it on the UK still being in the EU on March 30th. Heck, I'd put it on the UK being in the EU in 2029! But who doesn't love a nice bit of theatre, eh?

LOL, I read the fist sentence - had my thought about it ("which year?") just to be beaten to it by your second sentence.


2016 until 2020 will go down in history as "when GB to hit puberty".

	Quote:
	Most businesses are dead against this and May doesn't want to be left with no nice cushy boards to sit on once she's kicked out of Number 10, does she? She'll be forced to live off hubby and his hedge funds.

It's all about the sequencing.

May's deal isn't getting through.
No Deal will be rejected.

Then it gets interesting. Extension of Art. 50, will this get through? The order of the votes means that if this final vote does get rejected then the UK will leave without a deal on March 29th. Plus it'll give the politicians the added benefit of being able to go out afterwards and say "well I didn't vote for a no deal Brexit".

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	If the UK is still a full member at the time of the election, it would stand to reason that the UK will also be able to elect MEPs. This would obviously be costly and rather futile if the UK were to withdraw shortly afterwards, so it stands to reason that both sides want to avoid such a scenario. OTOH, Farage is no longer in UKIP, and his new party isn't really established yet, so it is not at all a foregone conclusion that he would indeed get re-elected.

It would only be costly and futile if the UK were to withdraw shortly afterwards but if the UK stays around for a couple of years or more then .....

Farage has been a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) for the South East England constituency since 1999. If there would be UK elections for MEPs in May then a very short time and difficult for other candidates to establish themselves as credible opposition?

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It's all about the sequencing. May's deal isn't getting through. No Deal will be rejected. Then it gets interesting. Extension of Art. 50, will this get through? The order of the votes means that if this final vote does get rejected then the UK will leave without a deal on March 29th. Plus it'll give the politicians the added benefit of being able to go out afterwards and say "well I didn't vote for a no deal Brexit".

Even the Daily Brexit is tooting about delaying the EU exit. The comments are comedy gold. So much impotent rage.