The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I must admit all this talk of delays is making me go a distinct shade of gammon. Still, looking at the sequencing, I reckon no-deal is very much on the table.

Turn down the gammon shade a wee-bit, eh? The only thing that is going to change is the wind and then you'll be stuck looking like that for ever.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Farage has been a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) for the South East England constituency since 1999. If there would be UK elections for MEPs in May then a very short time and difficult for other candidates to establish themselves as credible opposition?

Yes, but he is no longer in UKIP, and because the Euro elections are PR, people don't get to vote for the man but for the party list. How many votes would a small no-name start-up party get, even if Farage was in it?

[amogles]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Then it gets interesting. Extension of Art. 50, will this get through? The order of the votes means that if this final vote does get rejected then the UK will leave without a deal on March 29th. Plus it'll give the politicians the added benefit of being able to go out afterwards and say "well I didn't vote for a no deal Brexit".

Unless something big happens between now and then, I think the extension will be accepted because all the remainer MPs will vote for it, as will those leave MPs who still believe they can get a better deal than no-deal.


And this extension thing can be repeated and repeated. So in other words, May can kick the can down the road until either something new happens, or the EU says enough.


In other words, we get much of the negative outfall associated with Brexir, such as loss of investor confidence, without actually getting the positive bits of Brexit, such as actually being outside the EU.

The problem with the Euro summed up.

CEP study: Germany gains most from euro introduction

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The problem with the Euro summed up. CEP study: Germany gains most from euro introduction

But the caveat at the bottom kind of erodes any credibility it has...

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The problem with the Euro summed up. CEP study: Germany gains most from euro introduction

This study shows Greece gained from introducing the euro; that is contrary to most studies.

Do you not find that to be a little strange?

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	This study shows Greece gained from introducing the euro; that is contrary to most studies. Do you not find that to be a little strange?

The article says Greece benefitted initially, but the more recent austerity wiped out those gains.

But I would have thought that the same could be said of Spain and Italy.

So you're right. Something doesn't quite make sense here.

[John William]

Well almost 30 days to go now & times running out for those British Expats and
immigrants to register their residency.

Suffice to say the El Degüello is still playing for those British Expats who reckon nothings going
to change, just sit tight - no action required as Santa Anna's army, played by the Guardia Civil play
the El Degüello meaning No Quarter for your residency rights if the UK leaves the EU with no deal.

https://youtu.be/MgVyJjzD_-4?t=50

[Dougal's Breakfast]

	Quote:	John William
	Well almost 30 days to go now & times running out for those British Expats and immigrants to register their residency. Suffice to say the El Degüello is still playing for those British Expats who reckon nothings going to change, just sit tight - no action required as Santa Anna's army, played by the Guardia Civil play the El Degüello meaning No Quarter for your residency rights if the UK leaves the EU with no deal. https://youtu.be/MgVyJjzD_-4?t=50

Wtf are you going on about? We're all registered or we wouldn't be living here.

Are you even living in Switzerland? If you were, you'd know this.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Dougal's Breakfast
	Wtf are you going on about? We're all registered or we wouldn't be living here.

That advice was sent out to all UK citizens regostered with the British Embassy in Bern a few weeks ago. Always got to account for people who've been here less than 90 days...and numpties.

You should undertake the following steps now:

• • make sure you’re correctly registered as resident in Switzerland
  • read the UK-Swiss Citizens’ Rights Agreement and our Explainer
  • watch our explanatory video
  • read our FAQs

[Blueangel]

I have absolutely no idea why that post is green

[Dougal's Breakfast]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	That advice was sent out to all UK citizens regostered with the British Embassy in Bern a few weeks ago. Always got to account for people who've been here less than 90 days...and numpties. You should undertake the following steps now: make sure you’re correctly registered as resident in Switzerland read the UK-Swiss Citizens’ Rights Agreement and our Explainer watch our explanatory video read our FAQs

I can understand people living in the EU being unaware of the requirements, some of whom having convinced themselves that they weren't actually foreigners living under the sufferance of their hosts, but in Switzerland? One would have to be exceptionally stupid to be unaware of the need to get registered as soon as possible - even those who have been here less than 90 days.

I don't buy it for a minute.

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I have absolutely no idea why that post is green

Cos y're a snowflake hen!

[Blueangel]

Cheeky marton

1hr ago

	Quote:
	Brexit: No-deal impact assessment published ...."As of February 2019, many businesses in the food supply industry are unprepared for a no-deal scenario." It repeated analysis suggesting a no-deal scenario could leave the UK economy 6.3% to 9% smaller after 15 years, compared to what it would have been. It said the worst-hit areas economically in a no-deal scenario would be Wales (-8.1%), Scotland (-8.0%), Northern Ireland (-9.1%) and the north east (-10.5%).

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47379308

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Dougal's Breakfast
	I don't buy it for a minute.

Fair enough. I can only speak for the info I gave, which was cut and paste from an 'Info Berne' I received on 5th Feb. I just read it as a little C.Y.A. exercise from them.

[Dougal's Breakfast]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Fair enough. I can only speak for the info I gave, which was cut and paste from an 'Info Berne' I received on 5th Feb. I just read it as a little C.Y.A. exercise from them.

Sorry, my last post came off a bit "shoot the messenger". I didn't intend it that way.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Dougal's Breakfast
	Sorry, my last post came off a bit "shoot the messenger". I didn't intend it that way.

No worries. I really didn't take it that way.

I'm not adverse to change, and I'm definitely not adverse to risk, but I do plan as much as I can. I like calculated risk, but this stuff is rudderless and I'm not comfortable with that. Then I read posts like FrankZappa's in #18065 and think "fuuurkkk!" I sincerely wish none of this had happened.

I was lucky enough to have a brief, private one to one chat with our Ambassador a few months ago. I wouldn't be right to repeat what she said, but I damned grateful that she's got her head firmly screwed onto her shoulders. It's just the other @3million Brits in Europe that are jittery now.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I was lucky enough to have a brief, private one to one chat with our Ambassador a few months ago. I wouldn't be right to repeat what she said, but I damned grateful that she's got her head firmly screwed onto her shoulders. It's just the other @3million Brits in Europe that are jittery now.

All these changes will affect future immigrants not people that are already living abroad and have a legal status. Or so they say.

I think a lot of EU immigrants will leave the UK. I think a lot of them will stay. Will be an attractive place from now on? Who knows. I don't know anyone even thinking to immigrate where they're clearly not wanted. Some youth will still choose to study at some British universities no matter what, the academia is not (yet) virally infected with certain ideas. But all in all, I think people will get what they wanted. And then some more.

[Blueangel]

Awkward video footage! You might even think that the left hand doesn't know what the right hand's doing. Now there's a thought...

	Quote:
	Nicholas Mairs @Nicholas_Mairs Among some confusion Sajid Javid confirms ministers will back the Costa amendment on guaranteeing EU citizens rights under no-deal

https://twitter.com/Nicholas_Mairs/s...12571202666496

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Some youth will still choose to study at some British universities no matter what, the academia is not (yet) virally infected with certain ideas. But all in all, I think people will get what they wanted. And then some more.

Just going back to your point, I remember in 2005, my friend's husband enrolled on the Engineering degree course at Manchester UMIST. He's an Estonian/Kenyan dual national. For months, he was on tenterhooks waiting for confirmation that the course would actually take place because they'd had so few applicants. He was informed that they'd had no British applicants, so needed a minimum of 6 foreign students to allow the course to proceed. In the end, it began with just 8 foreign students.

I heard a similar story from a good friend who attended a Masters course at Edinburgh, as a foreign student, in 2009.