The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

Some light at the end of the tunnel!

	Quote:
	May’s final warning to Tory rebels: back me or lose Brexit

In the aftermath of the vote, Brussels warned that the Commons vote blocking a no-deal Brexit was meaningless. A senior EU negotiator described it as “the Titanic voting for the iceberg to get out of the way”!!!

BTW, about the Spelman amendment;

	Quote:
	An alarmed Spelman then attempted to withdraw her amendment but was barred by the Speaker, John Bercow, who said the amendment could be moved by other supportive MPs. Cooper moved the amendment instead and the government was defeated by four votes.

Did I ever post that you could not make this stuff up?

Source

The main political parties are completely splintered.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	There is no apparently about it. It would not period. Go read the judgement.

AFAIK the ruling covered the UK's authority to withdraw the Article 50 notice unilaterally which is now clear and not disputed.

However, also AFAIK (and I just read a summary of the ruling not the ruling itself), it didn't address and wasn't asked to address a bad faith withdrawal - i.e. withdrawal followed by a new 2 year notice a day or 2 later. I read legal opinion (not a ruling) before the judgement suggesting the withdrawal would likely be declared invalid. But until a ruling actually happens (again I do not believe this has been the case but please correct if I'm wrong) no-one knows. Probably depends on the interval between the two events.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	Doesn't need to be. Because of environmental reasons, local and sustainable production might become much more popular.

Much more popular than with barriers? Nope, the local producers (not just farmers, industry as well) had that advantage all along.

	Quote:	Dack Rambo
	I was referring to the customs border. Ireland has warships?

Ireland has something with over 125,000 people in it which floats...Cork.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	Why not withdraw the application and resubmit it when the government has a clue what they're doing? (Or better yet, leave it withdrawn... unless a second referendum still points to Leave.)

Re-submission would likely be against good faith unless the UK waited for an extended period. Given the consequences, and the duration this time around already, I would think the pause would have to be more than a decade.

	Quote:
	Ireland has something with over 125,000 people in it which floats...Cork.

That's not Cork, it's Guinness at St James' Dublin, you fool !!

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Much more popular than with barriers? Nope, the local producers (not just farmers, industry as well) had that advantage all along.

A trend independent of barriers and the UK. With themes like global warming and increased environmental awareness, I cannot imagine that it will be forever acceptable to fly steaks around the world.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Dack Rambo
	I was referring to the customs border. Ireland has warships?

Warships is just a collective term for all navy vessels, everything from a rowing boat to an aircraft carrier.

Ireland does not have a costguard service with boarding capabilities equivalent to the U.K., so all customs checks at sea are conducted by the Irish navy.

Today and everyday the Royal Navy, the Irish Navy and the U.K. Coast Guard conduct boarding parties and under water hull inspections under EU law to enforce Fishing and Customs regulations. Now from experience I’d say about 40% of the time boarding parties will meet with some kind of aggression: anything from having fish hooks, stones and bricks dropped on you to firearms. Add a political element to this mix and it may turn very nasty.

On paper it seems like the logical option, but enforcing it might just set the whole NI thing off again.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:
	I thought I read somewhere that retraction or extension of Article 50 was the prerogative of the country that submitted the article. I'll see if I can dig up the story.

It is actually an ECJ ruling on request from the Scottish courts.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:
	AFAIK the ruling covered the UK's authority to withdraw the Article 50 notice unilaterally which is now clear and not disputed. However, also AFAIK (and I just read a summary of the ruling not the ruling itself), it didn't address and wasn't asked to address a bad faith withdrawal - i.e. withdrawal followed by a new 2 year notice a day or 2 later. I read legal opinion (not a ruling) before the judgement suggesting the withdrawal would likely be declared invalid. But until a ruling actually happens (again I do not believe this has been the case but please correct if I'm wrong) no-one knows. Probably depends on the interval between the two events.

That was part of the Commission’s original reason for opposing it. I don’t think that anything can be done to prevent the U.K. rejoining. But their voting rights could be suspended if they did not act in good faith.

[curley]

	Quote:	marton
	..... “the Titanic voting for the iceberg to get out of the way”......

That describes pretty well how I feel about what GB has been doing the past two years.


Some might be speculating that global warming will melt the subject?

	Quote:	curley
	That describes pretty well how I feel about what GB has been doing the past two years.

More like this...


https://goo.gl/images/zndeYX

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	A trend independent of barriers and the UK. With themes like global warming and increased environmental awareness, I cannot imagine that it will be forever acceptable to fly steaks around the world.

Probably, if you look decades into the future. But for the time being the effects of that "trend" are unnoticeable.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	marton
	The main political parties are completely splintered.

I beg to differ. It's the Conservatives that are the closest to being 'splintered'.

There's a great little feature on this link, https://news.sky.com/story/revealed-...voted-11664245 where you can search for who voted what, and by hitting the arrows in each tab, you can list by how MPs voted in each of these three votes:

1. Supported May's deal in Jan.
2. Supported May's deal in March.
3. Rejected no deal Brexit.

39 MPs voted 1.No 2.Yes 3.No
All 39 Conservative.

14 MPs voted 1.Yes 2.Yes 3.Yes
12 Conservative
2 Independent.
With this small group, it's pretty safe to assume that they want May's deal as the absolute minimum.

81 voted 1.No 2.No 3.No
69 Conservative
10 DUP
2 Labour

303 voted 1.No 2.No 3.Yes
231 Labour
35 SNP
11 Lib Dem
11 TIG
5 Conservative
5 Independent
4 Plaid Cymru
1 Green

This is the voting pattern that shows the most unity within individual parties, and the most consistency of thought / intention.

Almost to a man, this group are united and resolute. Problem is, it means that May will continue concentrate all her efforts in getting agreement from the ERG and DUP to get her deal over the line. They are the self appointed 'king makers'. I believe all her talk of cross party consultations is utter guff. She simply has nothing to gain from it.

[Blueangel]

EU position this morning...

Knife crime in the UK has reached a ten-year high.





I wonder if that statistic includes the House of Commons?

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Re-submission would likely be against good faith unless the UK waited for an extended period. Given the consequences, and the duration this time around already, I would think the pause would have to be more than a decade.

Exactly. So withdraw already!

[curley]

	Quote:
	Exactly. So withdraw already!

Will they vote about that as well?
Which day will that be?

There's a certain irony in all this, isn't there? The PM repeatedly holding the same vote until they get the desired result.

To quote Marton; you couldn't make it up.

[eng_ch]

	Quote:
	There's a certain irony in all this, isn't there? The PM repeatedly holding the same vote until they get the desired result.

.... yet using that as grounds to deny a second referendum. Exactly.