The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[curley]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	In football terms, it would mean that Theresa May just lost a couple of friendly games.

Looks more like rugby to me.

That seems to be the main problem: The team to beat is the EU. Instead they grapple within their own team!

	Quote:	curley
	Looks more like rugby to me.

Nope, this is more like it...

[curley]

	Quote:
	Nope, this is more like it...

Yep, totally agree.

	Quote:	SponPlague
	Thev Brits had a meaningful vote in 2016. Now they need a meaningful Brexit.

And the Commons had two meaningful votes in 2019. Now the UK can have a Brexit as meaningful as the votes.

Roll on, Brexitexit.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	And the Commons had two meaningful votes in 2019. Now the UK can have a Brexit as meaningful as the votes. Roll on, Brexitexit.

Indeed as neither UK or EU law has been changed by these votes, the UK will leave on the 29th as laid down in A50.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Indeed as neither UK or EU law has been changed by these votes, the UK will leave on the 29th as laid down in A50.

They just don't say which month or year...

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Indeed as neither UK or EU law has been changed by these votes, the UK will leave on the 29th as laid down in A50.

Probably not. The latest vote resolved to request an extension, which if granted, would postpone Brexit until well past 29 March, and possibly forever.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Probably not. The latest vote resolved to request an extension, which if granted, would postpone Brexit until well past 29 March, and possibly forever.

Unless they can put forward a good reason it won't be accepted, they have voted against a second referendum. No doubt JRM will be down at the bookmakers.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	starmir
	But I find it hugely hypocritical from the political system that they consider themselfs having a 3rd go at voting them selves out, but won't consider asking the people again?

Why? The UK has a sovereign parliament that is what it is there to do, the people have no right to be consulted on this or any other matter either. There is a basic conflict between local representatives representing the interests of their electorate and a nationwide decision forcing them to do something they do not feel is in the best interests of those they represent. You can have a sovereign parliament or a sovereign people but not both.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Unless they can put forward a good reason it won't be accepted, they have voted against a second referendum. No doubt JRM will be down at the bookmakers.

Which leaves two options:
- A general election
- Time needed to pass legislation revoking A50

Don’t be surprised if JRM comes up with some excuse to support May’s deal, the alternative is that he goes down in history as the man that lost BREXIT.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Which leaves two options: - A general election - Time needed to pass legislation revoking A50 Don’t be surprised if JRM comes up with some excuse to support May’s deal, the alternative is that he goes down in history as the man that lost BREXIT.

I don't think either will happen, Labour is committed to leaving so a general election seems very unlikely.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I don't think either will happen, Labour is committed to leaving so a general election seems very unlikely.

Jeremy Corbyn is committed to anything that he thinks would be popular, including a second referendum, for which he just voiced support. I also (still) suspect that Theresa May's ultimate objective is a second referendum (the only way for Parliament to partially wash its hands of this whole Brexit mess). I'm surprised to see you putting blind faith in what the parties stated in their manifestos months or years ago.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Jeremy Corbyn is committed to anything that he thinks would be popular, including a second referendum, for which he just voiced support. I also (still) suspect that Theresa May's ultimate objective is a second referendum (the only way for Parliament to partially wash its hands of this whole Brexit mess). I'm surprised to see you putting blind faith in what the parties stated in their manifestos months or years ago.

It does look as JRM is one of the few sticking to what he has always said, clearly the only person suitable to be the next PM.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	It does look as JRM is one of the few sticking to what he has always said, clearly the only person suitable to be the next PM.

Always the backbencher and never the bride.

[higgybaby]

Some much appreciated light relief.
Did anyone see the Brexit Dance-off last night at the close of BBC1's This Week?

Liz Kedall's sure got snake hips:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...&v=SnpjbU5idLI

[eng_ch]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Unless they can put forward a good reason it won't be accepted, they have voted against a second referendum. No doubt JRM will be down at the bookmakers.

Parliament has not voted against a second referendum; it's voted against ref2 being the reason for extending art 50. Ref2 is likely to be on the cards when practically nothing else is left.


Can't really see the EU failing to accept extension, even with the flimsiest "reason" on UK's side. It clearly has a huge PR problem anyway, with UK having voted to leave - does it really want to go down as the body that effectively expelled the UK without a deal and consigned it to recession? Ed Conway of Sky said that would be an "act of diplomatic aggression"

	Quote:	eng_ch
	Can't really see the EU failing to accept extension, even with the flimsiest "reason" on UK's side. It clearly has a huge PR problem anyway, with UK having voted to leave - does it really want to go down as the body that effectively expelled the UK without a deal and consigned it to recession? Ed Conway of Sky said that would be an "act of diplomatic aggression"

Plus it would rubbish the point of view of the Brexiteers that "The EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU" if the EU would slam the door without a care in the world.

Although, to play devil's advocate, the EU could play hardball just as an example to the other member states, to show them what leaving really means. But I doubt it.

[curley]

	Quote:	eng_ch
	...... It clearly has a huge PR problem anyway, with UK having voted to leave - does it really want to go down as the body that effectively expelled the UK without a deal and consigned it to recession? Ed Conway of Sky said that would be an "act of diplomatic aggression"

After what's been going on for two years now and no end in sight, the only one with a PR problem is GB.

And interesting that it will be the EU who will be guilty of a recession in GB. And it also will be the aggressor. Amazing!
I sure am anti EU but WTF?!

[higgybaby]

If next week's EU agreement re-vote in the Commons passes, TM would have to go to the EU and ask for a 3 months, 12 months, 24 months or whatever extension. And the EU must accept or decline the request unanimously.

I think 3 months would be agreeable or both sides.

But anything longer than 4 months (when the European Parliament restarts in July) there will be a need to either :

• temporarily re-appoint existing UK MEPs or
• the UK could potentially insist on having elections for UK MEPs (???)

and I think through proportional representation allocation methods, it could potentially send a larger contingent of Farages back to Brussels / Strasbourg.
I don't think either side wants that.

As much as the EU heads want to make an example of the UK, the campaign could easily become a terrible PR war calamity and the ongoing noise would also be undesirable.

[eng_ch]

	Quote:	curley
	After what's been going on for two years now and no end in sight, the only one with a PR problem is GB.

Don't you think it would be salutary for the EU to at least wonder why so many people in the UK thought there was something so far wrong with the EU that it was better to leave? Why it has such an (inaccurate) reputation for lack of democracy and "barmy" rules being "imposed" by "Brussels"?

	Quote:
	And interesting that it will be the EU who will be guilty of a recession in GB. And it also will be the aggressor. Amazing!

For sure the UK is its own worst enemy at the moment. But if it goes to the EU cap in hand saying "we want to avoid this for now", how do you think Hungary, Greece et al - who themselves are far from EU fans - would react to the EU taking the most hardball line possible? Do you really think that would that work in favour of EU unity?