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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #18801  
Old 20.03.2019, 09:26
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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he is the only person I have ever known to be shot dead on their front door step.
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I did not personally know Jill Dando so very different.

Again never spent any time with John Lennon either.
How extraordinary that you personally know only one person shot to death on their own front doorstep.
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  #18802  
Old 20.03.2019, 09:30
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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How extraordinary that you personally know only one person shot to death on their own front doorstep.
How many people do you know who were shot on their front door. It has quite an impact to a 13 year old kid.

No doubt you will delete this post in addition to yesterdays I always thought another mod should deal with such things, but then another mod had already liked the post in question.
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  #18803  
Old 20.03.2019, 09:39
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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How many people do you know who were shot on their front door.
None. That's why I find it extraordinary that you'd say "the only person", as if you were surprised that there were no others.

I do know one person who died in a private plane crash and one who died on the operating table. Not sure if either is relevant to the Brexit topic, though.
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  #18804  
Old 20.03.2019, 09:42
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Mad cat woman, if you please.
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  #18805  
Old 20.03.2019, 09:47
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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while the other side said.. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics...endum-36355564

" Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock, with growth between 3% and 6% lower.

David Cameron said it was the "self-destruct option" for the country.
"In such a scenario, it suggests sterling would fall by 12%, unemployment would rise by 520,000, average wages would fall by 2.8% and house prices would be hit by 10%."


so if you believed that your pretty thick as well. so it looks like everyone is a bit dim, which is maybe why we are in such a complete mess.

I still think it'll be cancelled and we'll all go back to normal.
That article is rather confusing. It's not clear whether the forecast applies to the last two years (immediately after the referendum) or to the first two years post-Brexit, which hasn't happened yet and, as you say, may never happen. For example, the worst case WTO-trade-rules-scenario forecast could only apply once the UK were to start trading under WTO rules, which could only be post-Brexit.

If the forecasts are indeed for the post-Brexit period, nobody has a clue yet whether they are accurate or not, and nobody may ever know.
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  #18806  
Old 20.03.2019, 09:47
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Not sure if either is relevant to the Brexit topic, though.
Hugely symbolic that competent debate in favour of Brexit has completely run out of steam.

Lights off, grab coats and head down the pub?
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  #18807  
Old 20.03.2019, 09:51
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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That article is rather confusing. It's not clear whether the forecast applies to the last two years (immediately after the referendum) or to the first two years post-Brexit, which hasn't happened yet and, as you say, may never happen. For example, the worst case WTO-trade-rules-scenario forecast could only apply once the UK were to start trading under WTO rules, which could only be post-Brexit.

If the forecasts are indeed for the post-Brexit period, nobody has a clue yet whether they are accurate or not, and nobody may ever know.
You would have been less confused at the time, as Osborne had said the result of voting no would cause an immediate loss of 800,000 jobs & an emergency budget would be needed.
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  #18808  
Old 20.03.2019, 10:01
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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You would have been less confused at the time, as Osborne had said the result of voting no would cause an immediate loss of 800,000 jobs & an emergency budget would be needed.
Whereas everything the Leave campaign said was demonstrably and undeniably true.

The two campaigns were as bad as each other and they've currently got the result they deserve. The British people don't deserve it, though.
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  #18809  
Old 20.03.2019, 10:09
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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That article is rather confusing. It's not clear whether the forecast applies to the last two years (immediately after the referendum) or to the first two years post-Brexit, which hasn't happened yet and, as you say, may never happen. For example, the worst case WTO-trade-rules-scenario forecast could only apply once the UK were to start trading under WTO rules, which could only be post-Brexit.

If the forecasts are indeed for the post-Brexit period, nobody has a clue yet whether they are accurate or not, and nobody may ever know.
I read it as approximating both:

The Treasury's "cautious" economic forecasts of the two years following a vote to leave - which assumes a bilateral trade agreement with the EU would have been negotiated - predicts Gross Domestic Product would grow by 3.6% less than currently predicted.

In such a scenario, it suggests sterling would fall by 12%, unemployment would rise by 520,000, average wages would fall by 2.8% and house prices would be hit by 10%.


A second, "severe shock" scenario, also modelled by the Treasury, predicts what would happen if Britain left the EU's single market and defaulted to World Trade Organization membership.

In this scenario, after two years GDP would be 6% lower, up to 820,000 jobs could go, take-home pay would fall by 4%, house prices would fall by 18% and the pound would be 15% lower.


So they tried to show immediate and then WTO outcomes. At the time of voting of course everything was about future predictions - on the original subject of unemployment benefits which was posted, David Cameron was talking about getting reform out of the EU, even though he had just returned from an EU summit and failed miserably to get anything at the time. So how, now, would we have known if what he was predicting he would acheieve on his next visit was true, a bit true, or a straight lie ? Of course we can't because in any referendum its about what you would do, not what is happening.
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  #18810  
Old 20.03.2019, 10:18
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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You would have been less confused at the time, as Osborne had said the result of voting no would cause an immediate loss of 800,000 jobs & an emergency budget would be needed.
Not true though, is it. This is what the Treasury at the time said could occur during a Severe Shock scenario, i.e. the worst case scenario. There is no mention of an immediate 800,000 jobs either. Try and be a bit accurate, occasionally. Please.

Source: Gov UK
The impact of a vote to leave the EU: severe shock scenario

In the ‘severe shock’ scenario – which represents a credible risk - the size of the transition effect is linked to the estimate of Britain leaving the Single Market and defaulting to WTO membership.
After two years GDP would be 6% lower and 800,000 UK jobs would be lost, compared to a vote to remain. The value of the pound would fall by 15% and there would be a further increase in inflation of 2.7 percentage points, with a hit to the value of people’s homes of 18%.
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  #18811  
Old 20.03.2019, 10:29
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Oohh dear. Eurosceptics all over the place it seems.......
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...S-Uue4okYdSjNo
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  #18812  
Old 20.03.2019, 10:55
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I read it as approximating both:

The Treasury's "cautious" economic forecasts of the two years following a vote to leave - which assumes a bilateral trade agreement with the EU would have been negotiated - predicts Gross Domestic Product would grow by 3.6% less than currently predicted.

In such a scenario, it suggests sterling would fall by 12%, unemployment would rise by 520,000, average wages would fall by 2.8% and house prices would be hit by 10%.


A second, "severe shock" scenario, also modelled by the Treasury, predicts what would happen if Britain left the EU's single market and defaulted to World Trade Organization membership.

In this scenario, after two years GDP would be 6% lower, up to 820,000 jobs could go, take-home pay would fall by 4%, house prices would fall by 18% and the pound would be 15% lower.


So they tried to show immediate and then WTO outcomes. At the time of voting of course everything was about future predictions - on the original subject of unemployment benefits which was posted, David Cameron was talking about getting reform out of the EU, even though he had just returned from an EU summit and failed miserably to get anything at the time. So how, now, would we have known if what he was predicting he would acheieve on his next visit was true, a bit true, or a straight lie ? Of course we can't because in any referendum its about what you would do, not what is happening.
I don't see how the forecasts could have been "both", I.e. for consecutive periods, as the two conditions ("a bilateral trade agreement with the EU would have been negotiated" and "Britain left the EU's single market and defaulted to World Trade Organization membership") are mutually exclusive. Furthermore, neither of those two scenarios were/are possible pre-Brexit, while the UK remains in the EU, nor could either outcome of the negotiating period after the referendum be known for a considerable period (more than two years, as it turns out). Therefore I think that the forecasts were for the first two years post-Brexit, which as I've mentioned in passing once or twice hasn't happened yet and may never happen.
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  #18813  
Old 20.03.2019, 11:00
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Mad cat woman, if you please.
*Ding Ding* Round 2 of shoot the messenger. Boring.....

I care nothing for the woman. Where she was possibly wrong is that the ongoing investigation is being conducted by the National Crime Agency. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1NA1ZI That may or may not include the MET, I honestly don't know, but it is being investigated by the NCA...unless you can prove by any shadow of a doubt otherwise?
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  #18814  
Old 20.03.2019, 11:09
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

I am actually starting to feel sorry for Barnier/Juncker!!

It looks like May will roll up to Brussels today (or send a letter) requesting an Article 50 extension.

Then Barnier/Juncker will have to meet the EU27 and try to convince them that such an extension is necessary for the UK to complete worthwhile stuff despite the fact that the UK have wasted the last two and half years negotiating a deal which the UK Parliament has rejected!!!
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  #18815  
Old 20.03.2019, 11:17
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I am actually starting to feel sorry for Barnier/Juncker!!

It looks like May will roll up to Brussels today (or send a letter) requesting an Article 50 extension.

Then Barnier/Juncker will have to meet the EU27 and try to convince them that such an extension is necessary for the UK to complete worthwhile stuff despite the fact that the UK have wasted the last two and half years negotiating a deal which the UK Parliament has rejected!!!
All the more reason they should not allow an extension. Time to play hard ball.


No deal or revoke, then let's see who has the balls to go through it.
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  #18816  
Old 20.03.2019, 11:38
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I don't see how the forecasts could have been "both", I.e. for consecutive periods, as the two conditions ("a bilateral trade agreement with the EU would have been negotiated" and "Britain left the EU's single market and defaulted to World Trade Organization membership") are mutually exclusive. Furthermore, neither of those two scenarios were/are possible pre-Brexit, while the UK remains in the EU, nor could either outcome of the negotiating period after the referendum be known for a considerable period (more than two years, as it turns out). Therefore I think that the forecasts were for the first two years post-Brexit, which as I've mentioned in passing once or twice hasn't happened yet and may never happen.
The statements were for two mutually exclusive outcomes, one with a bilateral trade deal, the other under WTO rules (i.e. effective no deal). The prediction was for an economic prediction of both conditions given that at the time, we were still in the EU. When you are in a referendum about "leaving the EU" giving predictive scenarios of the economic environment under given models is the normal way of explaining to people what you think will happen.

the idea that you cannot make a prediction on the economic forecast of a given set of events is absurd, it is (was) the job of the remain and leave campaigns to do just that so I don't see where the confusion is here. You could give me a prediction that you will have eggs for breakfast tommorow given you have a history of eating eggs and I might agree with you. I could alternatively say you couldnt possibly say that because until tomorow comes we wont know whether you will eat eggs. i.e. no future prediction is possible until that future time arrives.
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  #18817  
Old 20.03.2019, 11:57
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

I don't know about Brexit, my option is not in the polls. The engineer in me likes to poke things to see how the system responds (impulse response anyone ?). It'll be interesting to see what happens, especially from the 'safe' side. But my GF has 3, soon 4, kids living in London (on Swiss passes, I understand an agreement is in place already). For their future I think it's better not to Brexit.


If I were the EU, I would not grant an extention. I don't see it bringing anything, plus it might cause the UK to revoke artikel 50 (which for the kids is the best option). It would come down to a revoke or hard Brexit.
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  #18818  
Old 20.03.2019, 11:57
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Hugely symbolic that competent debate in favour of Brexit has completely run out of steam.

Lights off, grab coats and head down the pub?
Whose round is it and where can we get the cheapest jugs of cocktails? I have a sudden craving for several espresso martinis.
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  #18819  
Old 20.03.2019, 12:03
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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And this is, in short, how Brexit happened. Some people would believe everything. Brexit fanboys and fangirls are not very smart..
Oh the Irony... and you believe the info the No-Brexit side came up with even tho it is an old proposal which is of the table for some time.

Thanks for the laughter
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  #18820  
Old 20.03.2019, 12:14
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The statements were for two mutually exclusive outcomes, one with a bilateral trade deal, the other under WTO rules (i.e. effective no deal). The prediction was for an economic prediction of both conditions given that at the time, we were still in the EU. When you are in a referendum about "leaving the EU" giving predictive scenarios of the economic environment under given models is the normal way of explaining to people what you think will happen.

the idea that you cannot make a prediction on the economic forecast of a given set of events is absurd, it is (was) the job of the remain and leave campaigns to do just that so I don't see where the confusion is here. You could give me a prediction that you will have eggs for breakfast tommorow given you have a history of eating eggs and I might agree with you. I could alternatively say you couldnt possibly say that because until tomorow comes we wont know whether you will eat eggs. i.e. no future prediction is possible until that future time arrives.
I agree with all that you say above, but maybe I didn't make my point clearly enough. What is not clear is whether the forecasts applied to the first two years after the referendum (i.e. pre-Brexit), or the first two years after Brexit. In order to satisfy one or other of the two conditions (which at the time were seen as the only alternatives), Britain would have had to have exited the EU -- i.e. post-Brexit.

If the forecasts were for the pre-Brexit period, they could only have applied once the (future) trading rules for the UK had been determined, and that could reasonably have been assumed to take many months or years (as indeed it has). It would be meaningless to forecast financial metrics for a country under a given set of conditions, or even a country operating under the expectation that a given set of conditions would one day apply, when that set of conditions is not known.

To put it simply (I hope!... this is getting convoluted), you can't forecast the UK's financial performance pre-Brexit on the assumption that the country would have a specific trade deal while nobody in the UK could make that assumption (because the trade deal would not be determined until the end of the two year period, so everybody would be in the dark). You can only model the performance of individuals and businesses, and ultimately the whole of the UK, in the period before some future trade deal if, and only if, everybody is operating on the expectation that the specified trade deal would be in place one day.

The fact is that nobody knew whether there would be a deal or the UK would crash out and trade on WTO terms, so nobody could forecast how people would react to the anticipated trading situation.

Hmmmm... I'm not sure that's any clearer. But I tried.

Maybe this helps: Of course you can make a prediction on the economic forecast of a given set of events. The forecast will guess what would happen once that set of events has occurred (i.e. a trade deal has been made). But the forecast can't guess what will happen before the set of events has occurred, when nobody knows whether to expect set A or set B.
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