The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	I agree with all that you say above, but maybe I didn't make my point clearly enough. What is not clear is whether the forecasts applied to the first two years after the referendum (i.e. pre-Brexit), or the first two years after Brexit. In order to satisfy one or other of the two conditions (which at the time were seen as the only alternatives), Britain would have had to have exited the EU -- i.e. post-Brexit. If the forecasts were for the pre-Brexit period, they could only have applied once the (future) trading rules for the UK had been determined, and that could reasonably have been assumed to take many months or years (as indeed it has). It would be meaningless to forecast financial metrics for a country under a given set of conditions, or even a country operating under the expectation that a given set of conditions would one day apply, when that set of conditions is not known. To put it simply (I hope!... this is getting convoluted), you can't forecast the UK's financial performance pre-Brexit on the assumption that the country would have a specific trade deal while nobody in the UK could make that assumption (because the trade deal would not be determined until the end of the two year period, so everybody would be in the dark). You can only model the performance of individuals and businesses, and ultimately the whole of the UK, in the period before some future trade deal if, and only if, everybody is operating on the expectation that the specified trade deal would be in place one day. The fact is that nobody knew whether there would be a deal or the UK would crash out and trade on WTO terms, so nobody could forecast how people would react to the anticipated trading situation. Hmmmm... I'm not sure that's any clearer. But I tried. Maybe this helps: Of course you can make a prediction on the economic forecast of a given set of events. The forecast will guess what would happen once that set of events has occurred (i.e. a trade deal has been made). But the forecast can't guess what will happen before the set of events has occurred, when nobody knows whether to expect set A or set B.

I get it and I do agree, any of the predictions were guesses because of course we didnt drop out immediately but they were still making a stab at what they thought the outcome might be because we didnt know how quickly or slowly sorting out the post brext deal would be (article 50 can be six months notice, 2 years is the max).

Rather than soldier on lets call it a draw but perhaps the best thing to take away is actually the complexity we can both see here. So think of some poor sodding ex-mining town in wales where no one has really been to school past 16 and the majority of the population used to work down the pit. What possible chance did they have to grasp what brexit actually meant. Which allows me to re-iterate what I have always thought: This referendum should never have happened because the electorate in the main is too thick to understand whats being asked.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Oohh dear. Eurosceptics all over the place it seems....... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...S-Uue4okYdSjNo

The EU is likely to not have been the biggest issue causing these results. Migration, Safety and Environment are the big issues these elections.

Several institutions like tax and unemployment department are an incredible mess, their IT systems are ancient and attempts to modernise it have costed Billions up to now but all failed, fraud with unemployment money is very common and hardly anything is done about it.

A lot of scandals have been popping up, the democratic party dismantling the referendum, the labourparty turned into a migration party, the handling of flight MH17, sending materials to terrorist groups in Syria, Whistle blowers get "shot" down, police throwing away half of the filed reports due to lack of manpower and knowledge etc... etc.. and the clear and blatant lies of politicians about all of this.

As for the EU, there is a lot of sentiment against it in the Netherlands and for yrs it is growing, people for example fear that the EU wants to get a grip on the Dutch pension funds about which it talks a lot with growing interest in it which have an amount of money in it which is with about 1.600 Billion almost more than double of what bigger countries like, Spain, Germany, France and Italy have combined and compared to GDP even the biggest in the world.

	Quote:	Mikers
	This referendum should never have happened because the electorate in the main is too thick to understand whats being asked.

I wouldn't put it quite that way. However, it's absolutely true that the electorate was asked to make a very important decision without having the information required to come to that decision, and yes, in the main being incapable of processing what little reliable information there was, along with the complexities resulting from each of the two options.

And as we all know now, the referendum question was deeply flawed. It didn't go anywhere near far enough, especially with regard to the "Leave" option.

[marton]

	Quote:
	I wouldn't put it quite that way. However, it's absolutely true that the electorate was asked to make a very important decision without having the information required to come to that decision, and yes, in the main being incapable of processing what little reliable information there was, along with the complexities resulting from each of the two options. And as we all know now, the referendum question was deeply flawed. It didn't go anywhere near far enough, especially with regard to the "Leave" option.

I also wouldn't put it quite that way.

A long time ago I lived in Treharris so I have a lot of sympathy for Welsh mining towns.

I fully agree the electorate was asked to make a very important decision without having the information required to come to that decision, what worsened the situation was both sides pulling on emotional levers that had no logic behind them.
Remember something like 70 million Turks will join the EU and then come here and take your jobs!

Made worse that the UK government never really understood or took the time to understand how the EU worked; they were focused on keeping their jobs in the UK!

Remember the UK's ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, resigned. The BBC revealed he had privately told ministers a UK-EU trade deal might take 10 years to finalise, sparking criticism from some MPs which led to his resignation!
He also said UK government never really understood how the EU worked

[Mikers]

	Quote:	marton
	I also wouldn't put it quite that way. A long time ago I lived in Treharris so I have a lot of sympathy for Welsh mining towns. I fully agree the electorate was asked to make a very important decision without having the information required to come to that decision, what worsened the situation was both sides pulling on emotional levers that had no logic behind them. Remember something like 70 million Turks will join the EU and then come here and take your jobs! Made worse that the UK government never really understood or took the time to understand how the EU worked; they were focused on keeping their jobs in the UK! Remember the UK's ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, resigned. The BBC revealed he had privately told ministers a UK-EU trade deal might take 10 years to finalise, sparking criticism from some MPs which led to his resignation! He also said UK government never really understood how the EU worked

I think most people have sympathy for welsh former mining towns. If people had actually had the courage to put it that way, then we wouldn't have had a referendum and we'd all be ok. The fear of offending people nowadays is the root cause of many of our problems.

[BasP72]

Hm, just read May's letter.... too weak in my opinion for the EU to grant the extention... placing the blame on the speaker, asking for a bit of extra stuff to be ratified so it can be presented as a new deal, so he won't object. And then we hope it goes through this third time.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	Mikers
	I think most people have sympathy for welsh former mining towns.

do they? they held the country to ransom time after time until it bit them on the arse. wasn't it some of these towns who also voted leave then asked if they'd still get the EU grants??

I tbh find that letter one big bad joke.

[Blueangel]

I thought the 'People's Vote March' on Saturday would pull about 2/3 of the estimated 700k for the last one, but after watching today's PMQs, anything is possible.

That letter in full:

	Quote:	Theresa May
	Darling fascist bully boy, Give me an extension, you bastard. May the seed of your loins be fruitful in the belly of your woman, Theresa.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:
	Darling fascist bully boy, Give me an extension, you bastard. May the seed of your loins be fruitful in the belly of your woman, Theresa.

and we all know how that ended, look out, cliff!!!

9 days until no deal Brexit. Flights booked, English sparkling wine at the ready. Can't wait

Toyota to build new model for Suzuki at UK plant

	Quote:	Loz1983
	9 days until no deal Brexit. Flights booked, English sparkling wine at the ready. Can't wait

It ain't happening. Mr Tusk will say no, then Mrs May will throw her hands in the air and cry, "It can't be done! It can't be done!". Then Brexit will be cancelled and it will all be Mr Rees-Mogg's fault.

I wonder what job they've got lined up for her in Brussels?

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Toyota to build new model for Suzuki at UK plant

Do you ever read past the headline?

It will not lead to any more jobs or investments but will increase the utilisation rate at Toyota's car factory

Hooray, an instance of Brexit not leading to massive job losses. Break out the bunting.

[lewton]

	Quote:
	I wonder what job they've got lined up for her in Brussels?

Evil woman at charge.

[Troublawesome]

No deal by stupidity is still the most likely outcome.


I can't imagine any UK politician revoking Article 50, only if they have terminal cancer and they don't care for their career.


Anyone from that bunch would rather see the country go down in flames and them re-elected or even become PM than the country prospering and them voted out.


Sad state of affairs, one positive thing is that the illusion of any significance the UK had globally is now diminished for a few generations, it even managed to surpass the ridiculousness of Greece's referendum where Tsipras made the No into a Yes the next day.



I feel bad for those who voted sensibly and are trapped in all this.

[eng_ch]

An interesting legal opinion here; in summary, that the Art50 notice automatically lapses unless an Act of Parliament is passed either to approve a deal or to approve no deal

https://ukhumanrightsblog.com/2019/0...om-rose-slowe/

[SponPlague]

Gilray would have had fun!

[Castro]

	Quote:	Mikers
	This referendum should never have happened because the electorate in the main is too thick to understand whats being asked.

Well I was too thick to comprehend the ramifications of leaving the EU, so I went for the sane option of retaining the status quo i.e Remain.