The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[SponPlague]

	Quote:	gaburko
	French Minister named her cat Brexit as "he wakes me up every morning miaowing to death because he wants to go out, and then when I open the door he stays in the middle, undecided, and then gives me evil looks when I put him out." https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-e...ed-cat-brexit/

Alas, no.

https://order-order.com/2019/03/20/n...called-brexit/

[marton]

	Quote:
	But how are those results of any interest if only the total amount of votes on Yer or No matters? Am I missing something?

You have to ask Loz; he originally quoted constituencies?

But since he got radicalised from reading the NZ shooter's manifesto it is hard to forecast his response.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	SponPlague
	True, but how many expats live in “Western Sahara”? It’s the quantity that concern him....

Two of my former client companies sent British workers to Western Sahara. It doesnlt matter where the votes come from as long as they tally up with the details on the electoral roll. I've entered my Swiss postcode as that's where my postal ballot is sent.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	marton
	You have to ask Loz; he originally quoted constituencies? But since he got radicalised from reading the NZ shooter's manifesto it is hard to forecast his response.

I don't think he's that radical, rather resentful or something. Possibly from an immigrant background. I don't know what fatmanfilms' excuse could be though...age?

[bowlie]

From the Beeb:

	Quote:
	Data from the petitions website on Thursday afternoon suggested more than 960,000 signatures were from people who said they were from the UK, nearly 9,000 from France, nearly 5,000 from Spain and nearly 4,000 from Germany, among others. A Commons spokesman said signature patterns are investigated to check for fraudulent activity and suspect signatures are removed, including those that are "clearly bots". He added: "Anyone who is a UK resident or a British citizen can sign a petition. This includes British citizens living overseas."

2100 GMT: 1,552,836 signatures

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	bowlie
	From the Beeb: 2100 GMT: 1,552,836 signatures

nearly 17 million more to go then

The FT are reporting that Theresa May will accept no deal Brexit

Source

	Quote:
	How Theresa May decided she was willing to accept a no-deal Brexit PM made momentous decision in the early hours of the morning after a day of acrimonious debate In the early hours of Wednesday morning, Theresa May made a momentous choice. After a day of acrimonious debate in her cabinet and inner circle, the prime minister decided that she was willing to take Britain out of the EU without a deal. At Thursday’s European Council meeting in Brussels, EU diplomats wondered whether Mrs May was bluffing, but those close to the prime minister said if she cannot secure her Brexit deal she is determined the UK should embark on a no-deal exit. Since announcing on Wednesday that she would ask EU leaders for a short extension to the bloc’s Article 50 process — to delay Brexit from March 29 to June 30 — people who have spoken to the prime minister said she is reconciled to the implications of what happens if the UK parliament continues to reject her withdrawal agreement. “The mood has hardened on no deal,” said one person close to the prime minister. One Eurosceptic Conservative MP who met Mrs May on Wednesday night said: “She didn’t seem concerned about leaving with no deal.” The prime minister refused to rule out a no-deal Brexit as she arrived in Brussels, and in her preferred scenario this could happen on June 30. But French president Emmanuel Macron said that if the British parliament fails to approve Mrs May’s Brexit deal in a vote earmarked for next week, the UK would be heading for a no-deal exit on March 29. EU leaders were on Thursday discussing an Article 50 extension, and whether it should be conditional on MPs approving Mrs May’s withdrawal agreement. There is, of course, a big question over whether Mrs May would ever be allowed to let the UK crash out of the EU in the face of massive political and business opposition. If she loses what would be the third so-called meaningful vote by MPs on her deal next week, she would be under intense pressure to resign. Senior Europhile Conservative MPs speculated they could ultimately join with Labour to bring down the government in a vote of no confidence and force a general election, rather than allow Mrs May to — in their view — crash the economy. The House of Commons voted this month by 413 to 202 against the UK leaving the EU without an agreement. If Mrs May refused to heed this non-binding vote, MPs could try to seize control of the parliamentary agenda to change the law to stop a no-deal exit. “It is a massive disaster, staggering incompetence,” said one influential Conservative MP. “She is trying to keep the party together in an extraordinarily stupid way. We are heading for no deal, which would be the first time a developed economy has essentially placed sanctions on itself.” Under the prime minister’s scenario planning, MPs have until April 11 to agree an exit deal: that is the legal cut-off date when Britain would have to legislate to take part in May’s European Parliament elections. Mrs May is adamant Britain should not take part in those elections. If the Commons had not signed off her withdrawal agreement by April 11, the prime minister would step up preparations for a no-deal exit, working with the EU to try to mitigate the inevitable economic shock. Chancellor Philip Hammond has put aside £26bn in an “insurance fund” to cushion the immediate impact of the UK crashing out of the EU. In deciding she is willing to take the UK out of the EU without a deal, Mrs May has sided with Eurosceptic members of her cabinet and the pro-Brexit European Research Group of Tory MPs, who are sanguine or even enthusiastic about a “clean break” with the bloc. “She seemed pretty down and low,” said one Conservative MP who met the prime minister on Wednesday night, shortly before she used a televised address to accuse parliament of letting down the country by not approving her deal. The prime minister’s stance on a no-deal exit has filtered out of her inner circle and caused alarm at senior levels of the government. “The prime minister has caved into pressure from the ERG, at huge risk to the integrity and economic prosperity of the UK,” said one minister. The fact Mrs May’s decision was taken in the early hours of Wednesday without formal cabinet approval has fuelled concerns in the Treasury about Mrs May’s judgment. Foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt on Thursday spoke of the “extraordinary pressure” on the prime minister. Mrs May’s allies said she will work with the EU to ensure the UK does not crash out of the bloc on March 29 but that she is serious when she insists she will not consider delaying Brexit beyond June 30. “We are nearly three years on from the original vote,” said the prime minister on Thursday. “It is now the time for parliament to decide. A short extension [to Article 50] gives us that opportunity to decide to leave the European Union, to deliver on the result of that referendum and I sincerely hope that will be with a negotiated deal.” In Brussels, EU officials agreed with Mrs May that the “point of no return” will be in mid-April, but there are diverging views in European capitals about what she would do if she has not secured her Brexit deal by that point. One senior EU negotiator predicted Mrs May, at this juncture, would indeed put “party over country” and take Britain out of the bloc without an agreement. “No deal keeps her in power,” said the official. Other EU negotiators think the opposite, with one saying Mrs May had “too much integrity” to accept a no-deal exit. “You have to destroy the country to do this,” said the official, predicting Mrs May would delay Brexit for more than a year before resigning. “She will not lead the country into the abyss.”

So, Mrs May has apparently lost the support of the Chief Whip... it looks like the EU will grant a short extension (into May 2019), contingent upon the MPs whom Mrs May just alienated approving her deal... another short delay might be granted so Mrs May can bully and cajole a bit more and hope to get her deal approved... Parliament already voted no to no deal and no twice to Mrs May's deal ... and apparently Mrs May is dead opposed to pulling Article 50.

So the EU will grant the short extension, Mrs May will be forced to resign (or will be pushed), the new PM will retract Article 50, there will be a general election which will see the Monster Raving Loony Party gain a majority, and Britain won't fall into the abyss after all.

OK, I made that bit about the MRLP up. But both of the major parties (and probably the DUP and the Lib Dems too) are toast.

[marton]

	Quote:
	My problem with Wilders was that he indeed mentioned very good points, but he always failed to answer question as for how he wanted to achieve such points. Take healthcare as a random example which has/has a huge shortage of care taking employees. Wilders: I'll get 15.000 more caretakers and fly them in from South-Afrika if needed. Questions about previous tests with South-African caretakers in the Dutch systems that showed it is a fail, or where to find them ove rthere, or how even to pay for those 15.000 people and how to alter their education and such never got any answer but just lead to him avoiding the answers with irrelevant stuff. Wilders knows how to pull people in with his 1.000 great oneliners, but in the end he is empty and has no solutions, more and more people start to realise such. Thierry from the FvD seems much smarter in his approach and acts/shows he knows much more about the issues he mentiones, and best of all he also seems to show that making a change is impossible if you can't fund it, something Wilders never showed any realisation of. Wilders was popular among the hard working people, I was one of those but my co-workers could never answer any question that went deeper into the subjects leading me to believe that wilders was indeed for a large part for the dumb (Also shown by all the people in social welfare voting for him since he would make life better for them, where in fact he was all about making life harder for those people.

I have the impression the FvD are quickly toning down their anti EU propaganda now they may have been voted into a position where they may actually have to deliver something?

[marton]

	Quote:
	So, Mrs May has apparently lost the support of the Chief Whip... it looks like the EU will grant a short extension (into May 2019), contingent upon the MPs whom Mrs May just alienated approving her deal... another short delay might be granted so Mrs May can bully and cajole a bit more and hope to get her deal approved... Parliament already voted no to no deal and no twice to Mrs May's deal ... and apparently Mrs May is dead opposed to pulling Article 50. So the EU will grant the short extension, Mrs May will be forced to resign (or will be pushed), the new PM will retract Article 50, there will be a general election which will see the Monster Raving Loony Party gain a majority, and Britain won't fall into the abyss after all. OK, I made that bit about the MRLP up. But both of the major parties (and probably the DUP and the Lib Dems too) are toast.

I blame Cameron and BOJO!

Oh dear, looks like the EU could be about to blink and offer a non conditional extension

Leo Varadkar, Irish Taoiseach, has been putting pressure on the EU to cut UK some slack on the Brexit extension.

Looks like they've listened.

[YuropFlyer]

The EU really, really, really doesn't want to be blamed for the disaster that will follow in the UK following a no-deal brexshit.

So basically the UK will get 2 extra weeks to stock goods if they don't agree to the Dec2020 extension (and then they're off with no-deal) or almost 2 months if they agree to the deal (basically the last possible date due to the EU elections)

In any way, the EU has shown the UK now very clearly what options the UK got left (plus, of course, stay in the EU..)

	Quote:	marton
	I have the impression the FvD are quickly toning down their anti EU propaganda now they may have been voted into a position where they may actually have to deliver something?

Why would they?

Also elections voor de EU in May, but the most important ones are scheduled for March 2021, surely they can give and take some, but letting go of their main issues would devastate them for the national elections for parliament, if they can keep up a good show there is even more growth in it for them and if the current trend keeps on and they can form a coalition in one way or the other Thierry has even a chance of becoming prime-minister.

[marton]

Following is believed to be the current state of play!

	Quote:
	if UK lawmakers approve British Prime Minister Theresa May's withdrawal deal next week, the Brexit process is delayed until May 22. If May's deal is once again rejected, the UK will be get an unconditional delay until April 12 to bring new proposals for a way forward, the European Council statement said. In that scenario, if the UK agreed to take part in European Parliament elections in May, the possibility would be open for a further extension of several months, it said.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Oh dear, looks like the EU could be about to blink and offer a non conditional extension

Oh dear you got it wrong again!

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Oh dear you got it wrong again!

Eh? What part of unconditional extension to the 12 April do you not understand?

Apparently it was offered because the queen of Ireland shat hisself when he was presented with the reality of a no deal Brexit.

[SponPlague]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Two of my former client companies sent British workers to Western Sahara. It doesnlt matter where the votes come from as long as they tally up with the details on the electoral roll. I've entered my Swiss postcode as that's where my postal ballot is sent.

Agreed, but the petition doesn’t check against the electoral roll...

Update: I understand moderators may perform random checks. And Guido’s geography GCSE may be suspect

[lewton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Eh? What part of unconditional extension to the 12 April do you not understand? Apparently it was offered because the queen of Ireland shat hisself when he was presented with the reality of a no deal Brexit.

You must really like May if you can force yourself to focus on the 2-week unconditional extension instead of the 2-month conditional extension.

[gaburko]

	Quote:	SponPlague
	Alas, no. https://order-order.com/2019/03/20/n...called-brexit/

Of course it's a joke! Just like the whole Brexit farce. However, this one is at least true, not only entertaining.