The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[eng_ch]

	Quote:
	MPs wouldn't be doing their job if they just rolled over and ignored 16-odd million people who voted to remain.

Not to mention the 3 million EU citizens in the UK and nearly 5 million UK citizens abroad denied the right to vote in the referendum at all.


Since the private members bill, supported by the government, to scrap the 15 year rule on voting rights failed of Friday, not because it was voted down but because it was filibustered by just one MP (and arch-ERG member at that), there is a petition launched on the UK gov petitions site in favour of at least giving UK citizens abroad the right to vote in any subsequent referendum on Brexit:


https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/237819


[please sign!]

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	By the way, did you see the Chequers away-day Brexiteers formed themselves into a group they've named "The Grand Wizards". Shame they didn't google that before going public... There are not enough faces to palm these days.

Do notice that she doesn't mention any source, just an "apparently". I couldn't find any public statement or similar where the group call themselves that.

It seems much more likely that the term was assigned by Kuenssberg with malevolent intent.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Do notice that she doesn't mention any source, just an "apparently". I couldn't find any public statement or similar where the group call themselves that. It seems much more likely that the term was assigned by Kuenssberg with malevolent intent.

	Quote:
	@bbclaurak More just catching up on timeline, for avoidance of doubt, couple of insiders told me using the nickname informally, no intended connection to anything else 1:49 PM - 25 Mar 2019

"Apparently" was the correct word to use at the time but it seems they are/were using the name informally, although I imagine there will be all sorts of blustering denial now they realise they'll have to back-peddle.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	"Apparently" was the correct word to use at the time but it seems they are/were using the name informally, although I imagine there will be all sorts of blustering denial now they realise they'll have to back-peddle.

In that case she should have mentioned the disclaimer in her tweet.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	In that case she should have mentioned the disclaimer in her tweet.

She did say "apparently".

Should she have said "allegedly"?

I imagine she would have only started running into trouble if she had said "definitely".

If everyone on Twitter suddenly had to put in a disclaimer each time, can you imagine the text count?

[Urs Max]

This disclaimer: "no intended connection to anything else". That would have been the fair thing to do.

[Fish Paste]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	1) won’t happen without a vote. 2) could happen however more likely is all paths now lead to a General Election. Crux of the problem is that Remain MPs don’t want form of Brexit and Leave MP’s don’t want May’s deal. Unless one side changes their position things won’t move.

I’m not sure anyone has an appetite for a GE, especially as the prize is a poison chalice.
Maybe May will resign, maybe she will press the button on Friday. Something needs to trigger a shift.

For sure, nothing on the table today has a majority of support, it looks like Brexit is dead.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	This disclaimer: "no intended connection to anything else". That would have been the fair thing to do.

You mean like "Please don't connect this to the KKK"?

Saying "no intended connection to anything else" would have just caused anyone with even a passing interest to immediately google it.

Anyway, it doesn't matter. It was just another hilarious distraction in the grand shitshow that is Brexit. As you were...

[eng_ch]

	Quote:
	I’m not sure anyone has an appetite for a GE, especially as the prize is a poison chalice.

Especially as it would most likely a) be a one-issue election and de facto 2nd ref and b) result in a hung parliament

This would be a sensible approach (read all the parts):

https://twitter.com/hselftax/status/1110089193777176576

It's quickly coming to another binary decision :-


1) No Deal
or

2) No Brexit


All this rabbiting on about extensions and re-negotiations and "Norway" deals all hinges on the EU playing ball and so far they have shown very little appetite for this

	Quote:	Fish Paste
	I’m not sure anyone has an appetite for a GE, especially as the prize is a poison chalice. Maybe May will resign, maybe she will press the button on Friday. Something needs to trigger a shift. For sure, nothing on the table today has a majority of support, it looks like Brexit is dead.

Whether anyone has an appetite for it doesn't matter. Parliament voted last night to take control of the Brexit process. Theresa May said she's not obliged to follow the instructions (which is true). This happens enough times then the government will be brought down which would result in a General Election.

[Fish Paste]

A GE is certainly possible, however it’s too late to save Brexit.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	She did say "apparently". Should she have said "allegedly"?

I think Johnson, at least, should own it and change it to his rap name 'Grandmaster Flash of the Wizard's Sleeve'.

	Quote:	Fish Paste
	I’m not sure anyone has an appetite for a GE, especially as the prize is a poison chalice

There's a marked difference between what we have an appetite for and what is the procedurally correct thing to do. Right now, I have an appetite for Jaffa Cakes dunked in an Aperol Spritz, but I know it's not the procedurally correct thing to do at 11:38 on a weekday.....despite it being almost, technically, in unicorn land, two of my 5 a day.

	Quote:	Fish Paste
	A GE is certainly possible, however it’s too late to save Brexit.

Again, no. It's one of the two original criteria stated by the EU for offering an extension to Article 50, the other being a 2nd Referendum.

What we all need to watch out for on this, however, is that it takes 16 weeks to organise a referendum. How fast can they arrange a snap election, and would all the postal votes make it back in time?

[Castro]

	Quote:
	All this rabbiting on about extensions and re-negotiations and "Norway" deals all hinges on the EU playing ball and so far they have shown very little appetite for this

As a rule based organisation their approach has been entirely predictable. We were the ones who thought we could have our cake, and these would be the easiest negotiations in history... and now we're blaming them for their intransigence

With regards to Norway/Common Market 2.0, I actually think this has the best chance of succeeding, even though its vastly inferior to membership.

[SponPlague]

Very Jerry Springer:

How does this work?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	You mean like "Please don't connect this to the KKK"? Saying "no intended connection to anything else" would have just caused anyone with even a passing interest to immediately google it. Anyway, it doesn't matter. It was just another hilarious distraction in the grand shitshow that is Brexit. As you were...

As if not mentioning it kept people from making the connection
You're grasping for straws.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	As if not mentioning it kept people from making the connection You're grasping for straws.

To be honest, I've no clue what point you were trying to make in the first place so I was kind of feeling around in the dark guessing.

I understood that you were upset that she didn't put a disclaimer on her tweet.

I countered that her using the word "apparently" took care of that, as in it didn't make it a definitive claim.

What was she supposed/not supposed to mention?

It was a tweet, not a white paper. Not sure why it's getting the forensic treatment.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	What we all need to watch out for on this, however, is that it takes 16 weeks to organise a referendum. How fast can they arrange a snap election, and would all the postal votes make it back in time?

GE requires minimum 25 working days after the dissolution of parliament apparently

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electi...eral_elections

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	GE requires minimum 25 working days after the dissolution of parliament apparently

Seeing as I received a Christmas card on 15 Jan, that had been posted on 12 December...

[SponPlague]

However, an immdiate dissolution of Parliament would mean that there were no MPs to pass a motion to extend Article 50, so we would drop out on Friday.