The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Fish Paste]

So who reckons on what now then?
Election? probably not
Referendum? probably not
May replaced? possibly
Cons and Lab falling out? Definitely
No deal? Seems to be off the table now
Mays deal? possibly
Revoke? my money is on revoke


One positive is Brexit seems to be crashing the UK housing market (at least taking some blame) so every cloud etc.

[Swisstree]

No deal Brexit planning is over.

Does this mean Mr. Grayling will be selling his fleet of ships on ebay tomorrow, anyone know?

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/sta...91388638318597

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Swisstree
	No deal Brexit planning is over. Does this mean Mr. Grayling will be selling his fleet of ships on ebay tomorrow, anyone know? https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/sta...91388638318597

Did he have any ships, i mean real ones that float on water, can carry cargo etc, not Lego or Meccano etc...

[SponPlague]

	Quote:	Fish Paste
	So who reckons on what now then? No deal? Seems to be off the table now.

Looking forward to seeing whether its already happened tested in the High Court 🤓

[Swisstree]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Did he have any ships, i mean real ones that float on water, can carry cargo etc, not Lego or Meccano etc...

Well, funny you should ask.. he's been sent out on some brexit boat test runs.

Note the German and Irish boats on standby in case he sinks. Bless.

A whole new meaning to soggy bottoms.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Fish Paste
	So who reckons on what now then? One positive is Brexit seems to be crashing the UK housing market (at least taking some blame) so every cloud etc.

Election: And reduce her majority even further? Nah.
Referendum: Still a possibility
May replaced: Watch for who sticks their head above the parapet during recess
Cons and Lab falling out: Not bothered
No deal: Still definitely an option but increasingly unlikely
Mays deal: In it's original state, doubtful.
Revoke: Much as I would love that to happen, I can't envisage it unless there were a second referendum first.

As for house prices, mine is currently standing at value increase of 285.4% on the purchase price, which is down on the 296% value increase last month. I'm renting it out at £50pcm less than the recommended rate, so I'm happy, my tenants are happy and I won't be increasing the rent as long as they stay there.

[Rob]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Did he have any ships, i mean real ones that float on water, can carry cargo etc, not Lego or Meccano etc...

Of course

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Election: And reduce her majority even further? Nah. Referendum: Still a possibility May replaced: Watch for who sticks their head above the parapet during recess Cons and Lab falling out: Not bothered No deal: Still definitely an option but increasingly unlikely Mays deal: In it's original state, doubtful. Revoke: Much as I would love that to happen, I can't envisage it unless there were a second referendum first.

Britain will have an infinite extension of article 50. Nigel Farage wins the european parliament elections. The EU implodes. All other countries leave with no deal. Nigel Farage, as president of the EU, will rule the EU with only country left, from Brussels.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	Nigel Farage, as president of the EU, will rule the EU with only country left, from Brussels.

...and that country will be Berwick upon Tweed. (long story...)

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Sandgrounder
	That's a bold big boy claim without any links to back it up...

The answer lies in the number of currencies that have existed without interruption and currency reform for at least a century, they're few and far between. That rules out all Euro countries or example, and outside of Europe and North/Middle America most countries of today didn't exist as independent entities before 1919.

Denmark, UK, Sweden, CH(Liechtenstein), USA, Canada, AUS, NZ, and Japan come to mind. Probably Mexico and a few Latin American countries as well. This list may well be comprehensive.

That said I bet he's got the order wrong, both USD and GBP are weak vs the CHF, at least for the last 50 years against the Yen as well.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	22 yards
	Yes, I was going to mention the pound (-74% vs the USD over the last hundred years; the Australian dollar has done better!), but our friend FMF has fits of apoplexy whenever its plummeting value is mentioned.

Just compare to Germany the richest country in the Euro, makes the £ look like a huge winner

[greenmount]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Just compare to Germany the richest country in the Euro, makes the £ look like a huge winner

Ok, Ok, according to you the UK will be doing so much better outside of EU. The rest of them poor suckers...so why do you want oh so much that EU implodes? Why people like you can't wish for an honest retreat and each to their own? Why do you people want misery for all? Wild guess - it ain't that good outside of the EU. And you think that if you bully the weaker countries as you bully your Pakistanis, Indians, Africans etc you hope you might get better deals. Rule Britannia, rule, eh? Or something.

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Just compare to Germany the richest country in the Euro, makes the £ look like a huge winner

If I put enough concealer under my eyes this morning I can ‘make it look’ like I had a great nights sleep.

Seriously, anyone can spout whatever nonsense they like on here without any links to back it up. Your 100 years currency claim got resoundingly shot down so now you’ve come out with freshly-baked nonsense this morning.

Brexit logic - dogged pursuance of grand sounding but vague and unsubstantiated bollocks which can be picked apart in minutes.

[StirB]

	Quote:	Sandgrounder
	Seriously, anyone can spout whatever nonsense they like on here without any links to back it up.

Ah, I see this isn't your first EF Rodeo

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	That said I bet he's got the order wrong, both USD and GBP are weak vs the CHF, at least for the last 50 years against the Yen as well.

Switzerland has only started printing money rather recently, so what happened over the last 50 years, won't repeat. You also need to remember that the USD was worth more in late 2001 than during it's low point around 1978/9. It's certainly not a straight line.
When you take the higher $ interest rates compounded over time the $ will have been a winner over much of the period in question. A 3% interest rate differential doubles your money in 24 years.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Ok, Ok, according to you the UK will be doing so much better outside of EU. The rest of them poor suckers...so why do you want oh so much that EU implodes? Why people like you can't wish for an honest retreat and each to their own? Why do you people want misery for all? Wild guess - it ain't that good outside of the EU. And you think that if you bully the weaker countries as you bully your Pakistanis, Indians, Africans etc you hope you might get better deals. Rule Britannia, rule, eh? Or something.

That is a very wild guess. Emotional.

I'll make mine - this mission wasn't about bullying as you assumed.

But an attempt for transparency and accountability. I still believe that this intent was/is there. It is pretty identical for CH.

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	But an attempt for transparency and accountability. I still believe that this intent was/is there. It is pretty identical for CH.

Shame the transparency and accountability didn’t make up the cornerstones of the referendum campaigning, eh?

Kind of makes the reasons given for leaving the EU hollow and hypocritical, ironically.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Ok, Ok, according to you the UK will be doing so much better outside of EU. The rest of them poor suckers...so why do you want oh so much that EU implodes? Why people like you can't wish for an honest retreat and each to their own? Why do you people want misery for all? Wild guess - it ain't that good outside of the EU. And you think that if you bully the weaker countries as you bully your Pakistanis, Indians, Africans etc you hope you might get better deals. Rule Britannia, rule, eh? Or something.

The highlighted part is actually the definition of a no deal Brexit. Only like that, both parties can negotiate as equals after leaving.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	The highlighted part is actually the definition of a no deal Brexit. Only like that, both parties can negotiate as equals after leaving.

You are so right at this.

It does require a temporary loss of status quo and stability..which is daily life for the rest of the world. Not sure why it is so unpalatable (or opaque?) to the remainers.

[marton]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	The highlighted part is actually the definition of a no deal Brexit. Only like that, both parties can negotiate as equals after leaving.

Problem is they would not be equals.
When a very large trading block negotiates with a single country then guess who wins? The UK already found when trying to replace the EU/third party trade deals with UK/third party deals that the other countries expected to improve the deals for themselves!

Remember Liam Fox said up to 40 trade deals would be ready one second after Brexit @ end of March; currently according to the Gov.uk site around ten are signed so illustrating the difficulties.
Of course if Brexit keeps getting delayed then Liam may well be eventually proven to be correct!
Anyway I was just trying to illustrate they would not be equals.