The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH - Page 998

fatmanfilms · #**19941** 12.04.2019, 10:47

	Quote:	marton
	He will get more apoplexy fits when sees this graph of £ vs CHF!! Attachment 136465

I can't see a Swiss bank base rate ever exceeding 7%, UK Base rates hit 17% in 1979. A 10% difference in interest rates means your money would double in 7 years. I wish there was an easy way to calculate the difference in £/$/CHF with compound interest rates applied over the time scale of your graph.

Looking at average salaries in CH/UK/US in 1969 v 2019 then comparing with fx change would be interesting to see the differences.

Average Uk wage in 1970 was £35 a week v £550 today or a 15 fold increase. That more than makes up for the loss v CHF

st2lemans · #**19942** 12.04.2019, 11:00

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Average Uk wage in 1970 was £35 a week v £550 today or a 35 15 fold increase.

FTFY.

Tom

TobiasM · #**19943** 12.04.2019, 11:03

According to the Office for National Statistics composite price index, prices in 2018 are 1,406.97% higher than average prices throughout 1970. The pound experienced an average inflation rate of 5.81% per year during this period.
In other words, £35 in 1970 is equivalent in purchasing power to £527.44 in 2018, a difference of £492.44 over 48 years.
The 1970 inflation rate was 6.40%. The inflation rate in 2018 was 2.48%. The 2018 inflation rate is higher compared to the average inflation rate of 1.80% per year between 2018 and 2019.

TobiasM · #**19944** 12.04.2019, 11:05

Here you go, you can calculate on this website, so the base wage has not increased significantly. So essentially people get paid the same as they always have. Pittence.

http://www.in2013dollars.com/1970-GBP-in-2018?amount=35

fatmanfilms · #**19945** 12.04.2019, 11:08

	Quote:	TobiasM
	According to the Office for National Statistics composite price index, prices in 2018 are 1,406.97% higher than average prices throughout 1970. The pound experienced an average inflation rate of 5.81% per year during this period. In other words, £35 in 1970 is equivalent in purchasing power to £527.44 in 2018, a difference of £492.44 over 48 years. The 1970 inflation rate was 6.40%. The inflation rate in 2018 was 2.48%. The 2018 inflation rate is higher compared to the average inflation rate of 1.80% per year between 2018 and 2019.

Can you do the same for Switzerland?

I can see 203% inflation over the time. 1 chf 1970 is 3.03 chf 2019.

Jim2007 · #**19946** 12.04.2019, 11:11

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I can't see a Swiss bank base rate ever exceeding 7%, UK Base rates hit 17% in 1979. A 10% difference in interest rates means your money would double in 7 years. I wish there was an easy way to calculate the difference in £/$/CHF with compound interest rates applied over the time scale of your graph. Looking at average salaries in CH/UK/US in 1969 v 2019 then comparing with fx change would be interesting to see the differences. Average Uk wage in 1970 was £35 a week v £550 today or a 15 fold increase. That more than makes up for the loss v CHF

Suggest Economics 101 at your local night school.

fatmanfilms · #**19947** 12.04.2019, 11:18

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Suggest Economics 101 at your local night school.

Buying a home in 1970 in London v Bern seems to have escaped your Economics teacher, which is precisely why he was a teacher

MusicChick · #**19948** 12.04.2019, 11:22

Shush!

RufusB · #**19949** 12.04.2019, 11:30

	Quote:	Fish Paste
	One positive is Brexit seems to be crashing the UK housing market (at least taking some blame) so every cloud etc.

Not round here it's not.

fatmanfilms · #**19950** 12.04.2019, 11:36

	Quote:	RufusB
	Not round here it's not.

One of George Osbourne project fear lies then

Of course high end London Prime above £10 million has probably dropped 30%, but more due to stamp duty changes.

RufusB · #**19951** 12.04.2019, 11:46

	Quote:	MusicChick
	You are so right at this. It does require a temporary loss of status quo and stability..which is daily life for the rest of the world. Not sure why it is so unpalatable (or opaque?) to the remainers.

You're seriously wondering why a loss of stability is "unpalatable"? Not sure what opaque has do do with it. Remainers want to remain. Both sides think they're 100% right and the other lot are blunt tools. End of, basically.

What's with the shush? I thought you were all about the freedom to express/live and let live etc? Sounds awfully like an attempt to police, to me. Innit.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	One of George Osbourne project fear lies then Of course high end London Prime above £10 million has probably dropped 30%, but more due to stamp duty changes.

I'm in Greater Manchester. Properties tend to sell well and quickly. 10 mill a little over my price bracket.

3Wishes · #**19952** 12.04.2019, 15:29

	Quote:	RufusB
	What's with the shush?

I think fmf was mocking teachers, and MC is a teacher. Shushing seems somehow an appropriate teacher response.

Blueangel · #**19953** 12.04.2019, 15:45

A pure genius piece of trolling from Led By Donkeys who are publicising this new website at Farage's launch of his new 'The Brexit Party'

https://thebrexitparty.com/

fatmanfilms · #**19954** 12.04.2019, 15:57

	Quote:	3Wishes
	I think fmf was mocking teachers, and MC is a teacher. Shushing seems somehow an appropriate teacher response.

Not all teachers, just the useless ones, who have no idea how useless they are & honestly believe they are good at their jobs.

RufusB · #**19955** 12.04.2019, 16:07

	Quote:	3Wishes
	I think fmf was mocking teachers, and MC is a teacher. Shushing seems somehow an appropriate teacher response.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Not all teachers, just the useless ones, who have no idea how useless they are & honestly believe they are good at their jobs.

Oh... kay...

I took it to be thought policing and group think.

FMF... I've said it before... who ever that teacher was, I reckon they won: you've clearly never forgotten.

fatmanfilms · #**19956** 12.04.2019, 16:47

	Quote:	RufusB
	Oh... kay... I took it to be thought policing and group think. FMF... I've said it before... who ever that teacher was, I reckon they won: you've clearly never forgotten.

Last week I came across a teacher who admitted she went into teaching for the long holidays, first teacher to ever admit that. Normally they just tell you how hard they work v the rest of the population.

MusicChick · #**19957** 12.04.2019, 16:51

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Last week I came across a teacher who admitted she went into teaching for the long holidays, first teacher to ever admit that. Normally they just tell you how hard they work v the rest of the population.

Whaaat. What holidays. You mean those days you spend staring at a white wall trying to get the beehive noise out of your mind?

(I love the noise)

I don't think you hate teachers. I think you just don't like the dumb ones.

So, what would your class on brexit would be like?

It was so fun.

Sandgrounder · #**19958** 12.04.2019, 16:54

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Last week I came across a teacher who admitted she went into teaching for the long holidays, first teacher to ever admit that. Normally they just tell you how hard they work v the rest of the population.

Isn't that a bit like:

The sweet factory worker "Yeah, yeah, I only work here so I can stuff myself with sweets every day"

The publican "Yeah, yeah, I only run a pub cos I can drink beer all the time"

The doctor "Yeah, yeah, I only became a doctor so I could look gross stuff"

Did the teacher accompany it with a massive and slightly resigned eye-roll, then suddenly remembered she had to go and tidy her sock drawer?

I've met people at parties where I've had to do that, too...

Fish Paste · #**19959** 12.04.2019, 17:23

	Quote:	RufusB
	Not round here it's not.

On its way.

Urs Max · #**19960** 12.04.2019, 17:46

	Quote:
	A 3% interest rate differential doubles your money in 24 years.

	Quote:
	A 10% difference in interest rates means your money would double in 7 years.

Not really, you don't apply the Rule of 72 correctly, if that's what you rely on.

While it would be roughly correct to say that with compounding, an interest rate of 10% doubles your money in about 7 years (and 3% in 24), a difference of 10% (ten percentage points, actually) would apply to 32% and 42% as well with the two doubling your money in 2.5 and 2 years, respectively. Compounded over 24 years, 27% results in "only" 56% more than 24% even though the difference is the 3% you mention.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	It's certainly not a straight line.

Nobody say it is, at least not I. The trend however is undisputable.

That said, your comparison implies that you'd be able to pick both the very-long-term bottom and top. I can't be arsed to search for your posts where you say it's impossible to consistently time the market but I suggest you make up your mind.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Can you do the same for Switzerland? I can see 203% inflation over the time. 1 chf 1970 is 3.03 chf 2019.

The index on nominal Swiss salaries went from 534 in 1970 to 2395 in 2107, a real increase by 48%. See here for details.

However, using 1970 as starting point for the comparison is a poor choice, the Bretton Woods agreement with its fixated exchange rates collapsed for a reason. Every significant currency, including the Dutch Guilder, German Mark, Austrian Schilling, Yen, GBP and USD, dropped by 50% or more vs the CHF from 1970-1980. That clearly suggests a general significant undervaluation when Bretton Woods collapsed.