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View Poll Results: How low will GBP/CHF go?
1.36 or higher 5 6.58%
1.3 8 10.53%
1.25 12 15.79%
1.2 13 17.11%
1.15 9 11.84%
1.1 7 9.21%
1.05 4 5.26%
Parity 9 11.84%
0.95 1 1.32%
Lower?!!! 8 10.53%
Voters: 76. You may not vote on this poll

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  #101  
Old 02.11.2016, 10:21
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Re: How low will GBP go?

There's also the possibility that Brexit may never happen...
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  #102  
Old 02.11.2016, 10:37
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Re: How low will GBP go?

Invoking itself will have zero direct impact, by then everybody and their dog will have prepared for that to happen. It's why we see the £ drop today rather than later.

One main problem at this point is unknowability (is that even a word?) of the future situation as nobody has even a reliable idea what agreement will be reached. Companies can plan for, say, a scenario with 10% or 20% EU import tariffs but you can't plan for the unknown. That renders most investment profitability calculations moot (including but not limited to the internationals), which may well mean postponing the investment or transferring it to another area (into EU territory in this case).

Shifting investments abroad means less investments in the UK, which translates to a weakening or actually weak economy. A weak(-ening) economy usually begets a weakening currency, for various reasons.

UK government members are trying to prevent these shifts, among other things by making big promises to Japanese far manufacturers. Some of these promises may well turn out to be untenable or be extremely expensive.

Not sure, but go the Donald (Rumsfeld) way, the Known knowns and the unknown unknowns, fat better turn of phrase !
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  #103  
Old 02.11.2016, 12:05
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Re: How low will GBP go?

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there's also the possibility that brexit may never happen...
lol
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  #104  
Old 02.11.2016, 18:34
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Re: How low will GBP go?

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There's also the possibility that Brexit may never happen...
There was a time when that idea sound stupid, but now I'm not sure... Perhaps the PM's strategy is to create such obstacles that a BREXIT is no longer a realistic option for people!
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  #105  
Old 02.11.2016, 18:59
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Re: How low will GBP go?

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There was a time when that idea sound stupid, but now I'm not sure... Perhaps the PM's strategy is to create such obstacles that a BREXIT is no longer a realistic option for people!
I don't think there are any obstacles to leaving, no need for any agreement at all with anyone.
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  #106  
Old 02.11.2016, 19:15
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Re: How low will GBP go?

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I don't think there are any obstacles to leaving, no need for any agreement at all with anyone.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...day-article-50
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  #107  
Old 29.03.2017, 10:39
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Re: How low will GBP go?

Brexit: Pound sterling slips ahead of Theresa May triggering Article 50

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7655121.html

Will we witness more substantial slip today?
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  #108  
Old 29.03.2017, 10:44
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Re: How low will GBP go?

I guess we will go lower but then bounce. But hey, I thought gap 1 = 1.70 was a great time to buy pounds.
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  #109  
Old 29.03.2017, 11:57
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Re: How low will GBP go?

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Brexit: Pound sterling slips ahead of Theresa May triggering Article 50

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7655121.html

Will we witness more substantial slip today?
I don't think so. Brexit has been a given for a while now and the markets have got used to the idea that it's happening, so really it should be business as usual today.

It's how the subsequent negotiations go over the next 2 years that'll determine the pound.

However, I could be like how every highly paid Forex analyst often is though - wrong.
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