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Old 11.08.2016, 01:43
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Will the UK actually leave the EU?

I've put this in a separate thread as it is quite different to the long thread.

There seems to be mounting opinion that the UK won't actually leave the EU, despite the result of the referendum.

This could be due to back tracking by those in power who want to remain, opposition from various groups or just the actual technical difficulties.

Whether you want the UK to leave or remain it is clear that it is not going to be a simple process. The longer that invoking Article 50 is delayed, the more likely that it won't be in the foreseeable future.

These are a few of the articles that I have seen over the past few months showing how complicated leaving could be and some of the reasons that leaving may not happen.

The Independent, 10 days before the referendum explaining that those wanting to leave wouldn't get their wishes even with a vote in their favour
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...-a7079581.html

The Independent, just after the referendum. How David Cameron put a spanner in the works
http://indy100.independent.co.uk/art...ue--bJhqBql0VZ

Vox World on 5th July saying that the referendum has put the UK in an impossible position
http://www.vox.com/2016/7/5/12098156...n-venn-diagram

The Independent on 21st July outlining some of the reasons that leaving may never happen
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7148816.html

The Evening Standard this week also giving the opinion that leaving is almost impossible
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/co...-a3314616.html

If the referendum result is to be overturned, there needs to be some kind of catalyst to make this palatable to the electorate without the government being seen as breaking all their promises. This would be much harder to talk their way out of, even though the referendum wasn't legally binding.

What could trigger this?

Could it be a general election? Perhaps Parliament or the House of Lords may oppose the vote on article 50 and any agreed terms. Could some kind of alliance with Scotland and a threat by them to leave the UK be a turning point? Maybe some kind of economic crisis? Could there be a break up of the EU in some way making the referendum irrelevant?

Whatever the cause, it seems clear to me that there are far more ways that leaving is impossible than there are of Article 50 being invoked and seen through
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Old 11.08.2016, 02:29
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

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What could trigger this?

Could it be a general election? Perhaps Parliament or the House of Lords may oppose the vote on article 50 and any agreed terms. Could some kind of alliance with Scotland and a threat by them to leave the UK be a turning point? Maybe some kind of economic crisis? Could there be a break up of the EU in some way making the referendum irrelevant?
There are huge swathes of the British political media that are implying that Article 50 won't be triggered. There are also a few people hinting that the UK needs to feel the economic burn before a second vote is 'offered' to the public.


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Could it be a general election?
With the state of the Labour Party, that's not going to happen.


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Perhaps Parliament or the House of Lords may oppose the vote on article 50 and any agreed terms.
My bet is on the Lords vote will scupper the entire process. Besides them being able to flex their political muscles, many of them will have lost an absolute fortune in recent weeks and be feeling the burn far more than your average person.


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Could some kind of alliance with Scotland and a threat by them to leave the UK be a turning point?
Possibly, but there's more likely to be a second Scottish referendum beforehand.


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Maybe some kind of economic crisis?
It's aleady happening and will only get worse in the next 6mths at least.


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Could there be a break up of the EU in some way making the referendum irrelevant?
Nope.
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Old 11.08.2016, 03:30
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

Since the referendum result was announced, I've maintained that I don't think that Britain will go through with leaving the EU. Just how that will (won't) happen, I don't know, but I feel strongly that in the end, nothing will change. Except that David Cameron still won't be PM.
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Old 11.08.2016, 03:51
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

Leaving in EU will not become easy because, there will be talked with 27 countries (EU members countries) about UK withdrawal within 2 years. It can be extend depending on the outcome of this talks. Therefore, I think this UK exit will take years before it will happen.

Anyway, you can see additional information on brexit here.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887
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Old 11.08.2016, 08:44
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

May has said "Brexit means Brexit". In other news, the Grand Unified Theory is the Grand Unified Theory! There's no information about how it will be done.

Perhaps there will be a General Election and the party that wins is the one that says "we won't leave after all". Then they'll merely be following the democratic will of the people...

Frankly, I haven't a clue.
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Old 11.08.2016, 08:48
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

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Will the UK actually leave the EU?
Yes. It's happening.

One way or another. The new PM has said as much. There's a team of diplomats and civil servants dedicated to this single task. The Independent can write what they want, but there's a reason that they don't print newspapers anymore.
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Old 11.08.2016, 09:30
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

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The Independent can write what they want, but there's a reason that they don't print newspapers anymore.
Because the internet makes it so much easier to distribute news? I don't think the quality of journalism has much to do with the demise of paper-based news.
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Old 11.08.2016, 10:11
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Since the referendum result was announced, I've maintained that I don't think that Britain will go through with leaving the EU. Just how that will (won't) happen, I don't know, but I feel strongly that in the end, nothing will change. Except that David Cameron still won't be PM.
Indeed, the only thing that surprised me about the post-referendum politicking was that apparently BoJo really was angling for the PM's job. I had thought he'd planned to let someone else take the crap right now and step in later when a way had been found to stay in the EU on more valuable terms.

Which is what I expect to happen sooner or later anyway.

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Yes. It's happening.

One way or another. The new PM has said as much.
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Old 11.08.2016, 10:31
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

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Could it be a general election? Perhaps Parliament or the House of Lords may oppose the vote on article 50 and any agreed terms. Could some kind of alliance with Scotland and a threat by them to leave the UK be a turning point? Maybe some kind of economic crisis? Could there be a break up of the EU in some way making the referendum irrelevant?
One further option could be further EU reforms and some sort of temporary immigration freeze for the UK (similar to the 7-10 year derogation that existed after the 2004 EU expansion which Britain opted out of), and that could give the PM a compelling enough reason to seek a second referendum.
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Old 11.08.2016, 11:12
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

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One further option could be further EU reforms and some sort of temporary immigration freeze for the UK (similar to the 7-10 year derogation that existed after the 2004 EU expansion which Britain opted out of), and that could give the PM a compelling enough reason to seek a second referendum.
However he can wait the 7-10 years before the new referendum, there is no rush.
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Old 11.08.2016, 11:17
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

It's only been a few weeks since the referendum and there's a suggestion that Article 50 may be triggered in the new year. The Tories held the referendum because they were running scared of their Eurosceptics plus UKIP and I don't doubt that they're still running scared of them. The disarray of Labour and the support for Brexit in Labour heartlands suggests that UKIP could at least mop up a few Labour seats in the next election. If the Tories don't keep their Brexit pledge, they could be at risk too, if they're not already. Nigel Farage has promised to return to UK politics if Brexit doesn't turn out exactly the way he wants it:

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Farage suggested his resignation was more of a sabbatical than a retirement. “If this was not to happen [Brexit], I would find it irresistible to put my shoulder to the wheel again,” he told the cheering audience.
But he warned:


“By the 2020 election if we haven’t got back our territorial fishing waters, haven’t got immigration numbers down, then you ain’t seen nothing yet” in terms of disruption to British politics.
Whatever form Brexit takes, I'm sure he'll be looking for a seat in the House of Commons to replace the stage (and financial support) that the European Parliament has provided him with.
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Old 11.08.2016, 11:28
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

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Whatever form Brexit takes, I'm sure he'll be looking for a seat in the House of Commons to replace the stage (and financial support) that the European Parliament has provided him with.
I think he overplays his influence a tad. Clearly he was instrumental in getting a referendum, but his contribution during the campaign if anything was negative which is why 'Leave' kept him and his UKIP nutters at arms length.

Boris and Michael Gove deserve most of the credit, if you can call it that.
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Old 11.08.2016, 11:33
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

Awesome to see how the Brits can't comprehend the practicality of democracy.

Maybe less pretending of "ruling the waves" and a push to understand the basis of a proper democracy and the inherent commitment that needs to be undertaken to effect the changes that this would bring.
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Old 11.08.2016, 11:38
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

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It's only been a few weeks since the referendum and there's a suggestion that Article 50 may be triggered in the new year. The Tories held the referendum because they were running scared of their Eurosceptics plus UKIP and I don't doubt that they're still running scared of them. The disarray of Labour and the support for Brexit in Labour heartlands suggests that UKIP could at least mop up a few Labour seats in the next election. If the Tories don't keep their Brexit pledge, they could be at risk too, if they're not already. Nigel Farage has promised to return to UK politics if Brexit doesn't turn out exactly the way he wants it:

Whatever form Brexit takes, I'm sure he'll be looking for a seat in the House of Commons to replace the stage (and financial support) that the European Parliament has provided him with.
I think this is what will force Brexit to happen. If it doesn't, UKIP could win by a landslide in the next election (assuming the election becomes a proxy vote on Brexit and the votes are similar to the referendum).
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Old 11.08.2016, 11:41
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

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However he can wait the 7-10 years before the new referendum, there is no rush.
She, FMF... she. (Unless you're forecasting a Labour victory in the near future?)
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Old 11.08.2016, 11:49
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

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The Tories held the referendum because they were running scared of their Eurosceptics plus UKIP and I don't doubt that they're still running scared of them.
The referendum happened because Cameron promised it never ever imagining that he'd win an outright majority and have to follow through with it. Once the Tories won last year he couldn't backtrack.

The same goes for Brexit. It has to happen because no one will ever have the bottle to backtrack against the will of the people.
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Old 11.08.2016, 11:59
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

It is not sure if the UK will leave since many people feel regret of what they voted so UK is planning a new referendum which will happen on the OF COURSE THEY WILL LEAVE! THEY'VE MADE A DEMOCRATIC CHOICE!
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Old 11.08.2016, 12:07
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

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The disarray of Labour and the support for Brexit in Labour heartlands suggests that UKIP could at least mop up a few Labour seats in the next election.
I think UKIP, at least in its present guise, is history. UKIP always was a one issue party. They have achieved their goal. They were out to win the war, not to win the peace. Farage's stepping down was very much a "mission accomplished" statment. Also, it show he knows the UKIP is going to take a nosedive as they have no plan or visison for going forward and it would look better if the meltdown happened under somebody else's leadership. Cruelly enough, the prophecy may even be self-fulfilling because without Farage at the helm and without his comical speeches in Strasbourg, many voters will struggle to figure out what UKIP is about.

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If the Tories don't keep their Brexit pledge, they could be at risk too, if they're not already. Nigel Farage has promised to return to UK politics if Brexit doesn't turn out exactly the way he wants it:
I'm sure he'll be back in some form or another at some point. But probably doing what he does best - being in opposition and making a lot of noise about it.
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Old 11.08.2016, 12:09
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

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It is not sure if the UK will leave since many people feel regret of what they voted so UK is planning a new referendum which will happen on the OF COURSE THEY WILL LEAVE! THEY'VE MADE A DEMOCRATIC CHOICE!
And there's nothing to stop them making another democratic choice to reverse the first one. It's happened dozens of times already, in the UK's relatively recent history -- every time the government changes following a general election, for example (sometimes a matter of months or only a year or two after the preceding change of government).

In fact, those who rail against the idea of any further referendum are actually anti-democratic.
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Old 11.08.2016, 12:10
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Re: Will the UK actually leave the EU?

The European Referendum (ER) should be looked upon as a giant opinion poll. There is no fresh legal process as a result of the ER.

The Labour party did not show any leadership, even though they were not in favour of leaving. The British public were led by the gutter press, and a few broadsheets owned by very rich men living off shore, who of course had NO ulterior motive, other than to sell more newspapers stating the opposite to the government's opinion. Totally irresponsible!

Britain entered the EEC with an act of Parliament, and to leave the EU requires another act of Parliament. That is the law of the UK.

Before the ER only 103 members out of 650 of the House of Commons (lower house) were in favour of leaving. None of the upper House of Lords are in favour of leaving. So any chance of rushing through a new law is about zero.

The Queen must sign the new laws: and she usually does.

Recently there has been a change in the Prime Minister's ability to call a general election. Today Parliament sessions are expected to run for 5 years before another general election.

Now that 50% of the population have put down their Sun newspapers and actually studied the problems with Brexit, there is every chance that a second ER will be hugely different. Now the idiots realise that only after many years of re-negotiations the UK will be worse off than it is now, and will still have to abide by the EU rules on trade and the free movement of population, just as Switzerland does.

Both France and the Netherlands rejected the Treaty of Dublin, and then turned about and enabled the "New EU" to creep in under the guise of the Treaty of Lisbon. Countries have been seen to change their decisions.

I would expect that article 50 will not be triggered until the next general election in 5 year's time, and probably after the next election results, if ever.

In the meantime the low value of the pound is wonderful for UK exports. The UK does still export lots of stuff!

Those Sun readers who can now only afford half a summer holiday in Spain will be annoyed, but it serves them jolly well right!

We will continue to have very cheap holidays in the UK, and maybe one day the price of Heinz baked beans will be cheaper.

.

Last edited by Sbrinz; 11.08.2016 at 12:26.
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