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Old 09.11.2016, 18:53
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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I think what happened to pollsters and media outlets is they decided some people and opinions are too extreme and decided to lop them off because it looks better. Besides, it helped them drive the narrative the establishment wanted them to. Otherwise, they would have to give airtime to such opinions. So they lied.
Don't think so. Do you know anything about the process of sampling and estimation? These people actually work with raw data, something I suspect you never would consider as it can't drive your narrative.

I'm very interested in the failure of these methods as an analytical exercise.
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Old 09.11.2016, 18:54
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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Actually, yes, they are.
It isn't prohibited in the constitution, and that makes a certain sense to me (though I'm a bit surprised that treason isn't explicitly mentioned).

What about the parties? Do their charters have stricter rules?
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Old 09.11.2016, 18:55
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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I would like to make my first poll, but not sure how to do this.

Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

No ! The system is rigged
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Old 09.11.2016, 18:57
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

If Giuliani is the next Attorney General, will he impanel a grand jury to investigate the Clinton Foundation? The FBI cannot impanel a grand jury; only the Department of Justice can (because they are the lawyers; the FBI are the investigators).

A grand jury is made up of typical citizens and has the power to issue subpoenas (which is why the Obama Admin. didn't allow one to be impaneled for Hillary's classified intel investigation).

The FBI has not had subpoena power thus far (except for the time the DOJ sought it from the judge in the Weiner underage sexting investigation).

Remember, Giuliani made his name as an anti-corruption federal prosecutor, finishing up as the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York before becoming mayor of NYC.

Also, the FBI is still investigating the Clinton Foundation for pay-to-play and other corruption. Will Giuliani want to see this through?
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Old 09.11.2016, 18:59
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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I'm very interested in the failure of these methods as an analytical exercise.
Its accuracy is the failure in itself. As for the various methodologies they used, a monkey in China proved to be more accurate.

I believe pollsters have been convening on how they got this and Brexit so wrong. I'm are there are articles and up coming papers on it. I suspect it is simply the human factor of unpredictability.
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  #26  
Old 09.11.2016, 19:01
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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Wait, I thought she will be locked up. Are felons allowed to run for President?
I'm pretty sure what Trump said about locking her up (and many other things) will be quickly forgotten and ignored. It was just 'campaign talk'.
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  #27  
Old 09.11.2016, 19:07
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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I would like to make my first poll, but not sure how to do this.

Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?
Do you mean the real Hillary Clinton or her body double?
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  #28  
Old 09.11.2016, 19:11
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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If Giuliani is the next Attorney General, will he ...want to see this through?
No, because he'll be Homeland Security secretary. Ask Chris Christie instead what he will do.
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  #29  
Old 09.11.2016, 19:28
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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Its accuracy is the failure in itself. As for the various methodologies they used, a monkey in China proved to be more accurate.

I believe pollsters have been convening on how they got this and Brexit so wrong. I'm are there are articles and up coming papers on it. I suspect it is simply the human factor of unpredictability.
I don't think so. You're looking for collusion where none exists. And the polls were close with respect to popular vote, but failed on electoral college.

There is a degree of uncertainty inherent in all estimation. I believe modeling turnout may be the sticking point.

This could drive poll aggregators to use more open source methods. And yes, I expect it's a topic that will be studied.
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Old 09.11.2016, 19:33
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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It's a small sample estimation problem. Probably nothing nefarious like lying, more an issue with sampling and estimation - both of votes and of turnout.
With respect, we don't know that. In the UK the phenomenon of the 'shy Tory' is well established. For various reasons, whether mischievousness or genuine unwillingness to reveal their intentions, the responses of people in polls has become less reliable over the years. In a close race, remember that it takes only a small number e.g. 5% or so, to misrepresent their intentions, and the polls are way out.
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  #31  
Old 09.11.2016, 19:35
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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I don't think so. You're looking for collusion where none exists. And the polls were close with respect to popular vote, but failed on electoral college.

There is a degree of uncertainty inherent in all estimation. I believe modeling turnout may be the sticking point.

This could drive poll aggregators to use more open source methods. And yes, I expect it's a topic that will be studied.
I don't have any linkage on collusion with the polls, but according to leaked emails, there was definitely collusion between the Hillary campaign and mainstream media outlets (CNN, NYT, etc.). The polling organisations are often publicly traded and sure owned by some interests.

On the inaccuracy of the polls, remember that the media and you amongst them worked very hard to shame people for supporting Trump. Racist, bigoted, deplorable and all, I'm sure that many voters did not bother to publicly tell the truth about how they will vote. That is the problem with trying to beat people over the heads like that.
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  #32  
Old 09.11.2016, 19:35
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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No, because he'll be Homeland Security secretary. Ask Chris Christie instead what he will do.


He will close bridges . All part of the infrastructure trump wants to build ,with money congress will not approve
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  #33  
Old 09.11.2016, 19:38
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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I'm pretty sure what Trump said about locking her up (and many other things) will be quickly forgotten and ignored. It was just 'campaign talk'.
Perhaps. But I do think that power in Washington is prefaced on leverage of one person over another. Hell, Clinton had leverage on Bernie Sanders and used it to ward off public criticism. I'm sure there will be some further investigation to warrant the extent of wrongdoing. Whether or not it will be prosecuted, if any evidence is found, may or may not be a value judgment call.
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  #34  
Old 09.11.2016, 19:47
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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I believe pollsters have been convening on how they got this and Brexit so wrong.
I don't know why people keep saying this about Brexit polls. There were plenty of polls giving Leave a narrow lead in the final weeks of the campaign, and plenty giving Remain a narrow lead. Given the margin of error, this was a reasonable reflection of the eventual 52:48 result.

Much more striking was the inaccuracy of the predictions for the 2015 general election. A hung parliament was by far the most popular prediction. Almost no one predicted an outright majority for the Tories.
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  #35  
Old 09.11.2016, 20:08
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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I'm pretty sure what Trump said about locking her up (and many other things) will be quickly forgotten and ignored. It was just 'campaign talk'.
I think hi said all those nasty things to get in the news troughout the campaign.
On the speach after he won, his language was completely different.
Hi will not lock up Hillary. She is not "lockable"IMO
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  #36  
Old 09.11.2016, 20:12
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

Listening to her speech couple of hours ago - I personally think she will run in 4 years time. Was in her eyes. Third time lucky maybe!?
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Old 09.11.2016, 20:17
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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No, because he'll be Homeland Security secretary. Ask Chris Christie instead what he will do.
I assumed Christie's out at Justice because of Bridgegate but I guess you never know.

With Christie as AG, the question still stands (particularly as Christie was a former USA that made his bones doing anti-corruption cases).
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  #38  
Old 09.11.2016, 20:20
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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Listening to her speech couple of hours ago - I personally think she will run in 4 years time. Was in her eyes. Third time lucky maybe!?
I'm sure she'd like to try but by then the party will be done with her.
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  #39  
Old 09.11.2016, 20:23
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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So here goes- which is it:

did people lie when questionned by pollsters:

out of shame for their intentions?

out of a deliberate strategy?


Answer to OP, no.
Polls are a waste of resources to give false hopes to people they deliver nothing and are irrelevant in the modern era
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  #40  
Old 09.11.2016, 20:29
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Re: Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

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Not really, no. Hillary did gain more votes than Trump so the national polls weren't too far off (within margin of error anyway) and the shift to Trump in the swing states has been apparent since the weekend.

She'll never stand again anyway.
She got more votes - hence I've asked this question.
True, she might not get the support from her party. We shall wait and see. Politics changes as we have seen recently.
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