I would like to make my first poll, but not sure how to do this.

Will Hillary Clinton run for president again?

Why bother with a poll. Surely today's result shows they are completely worthless?

so she can fail for a 3rd time??? no chance

No. I think the old timers have to throw in the towel and allow fresh faces with little to no baggage to bloom and grow on the public.

Unless American's get fed up of 4 years of winning, I'm guessing Trump for a 2nd term.

That's aged badly.

I'm still of the mind that the oldies have got to pass the baton, and a Harris presidency sits very well with me. Sorry, Joe, not wishing anything upon you.

So here goes- which is it:

did people lie when questionned by pollsters:

out of shame for their intentions?

out of a deliberate strategy?


Answer to OP, no.

It's a small sample estimation problem. Probably nothing nefarious like lying, more an issue with sampling and estimation - both of votes and of turnout.

I think what happened to pollsters and media outlets is they decided some people and opinions are too extreme and decided to lop them off because it looks better. Besides, it helped them drive the narrative the establishment wanted them to. Otherwise, they would have to give airtime to such opinions. So they lied.

Phos, wouldn't it be simpler to believe that if there were a media/establishment conspiracy to keep Trump out they would have exagerated Trump gains at the early stages? That might have motivated some marginally convinced voters to vote for Clinton.

Don't think so. Do you know anything about the process of sampling and estimation? These people actually work with raw data, something I suspect you never would consider as it can't drive your narrative.

I'm very interested in the failure of these methods as an analytical exercise.

Yes, and apparently weighting over-sampled Dems by ca. +4.

If Giuliani is the next Attorney General, will he impanel a grand jury to investigate the Clinton Foundation? The FBI cannot impanel a grand jury; only the Department of Justice can (because they are the lawyers; the FBI are the investigators).

A grand jury is made up of typical citizens and has the power to issue subpoenas (which is why the Obama Admin. didn't allow one to be impaneled for Hillary's classified intel investigation).

The FBI has not had subpoena power thus far (except for the time the DOJ sought it from the judge in the Weiner underage sexting investigation).

Remember, Giuliani made his name as an anti-corruption federal prosecutor, finishing up as the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York before becoming mayor of NYC.

Also, the FBI is still investigating the Clinton Foundation for pay-to-play and other corruption. Will Giuliani want to see this through?

With respect, we don't know that. In the UK the phenomenon of the 'shy Tory' is well established. For various reasons, whether mischievousness or genuine unwillingness to reveal their intentions, the responses of people in polls has become less reliable over the years. In a close race, remember that it takes only a small number e.g. 5% or so, to misrepresent their intentions, and the polls are way out.

Polls are a waste of resources to give false hopes to people they deliver nothing and are irrelevant in the modern era

Not really, no. Hillary did gain more votes than Trump so the national polls weren't too far off (within margin of error anyway) and the shift to Trump in the swing states has been apparent since the weekend.

She'll never stand again anyway.

That was it for Hillary, period.

I don't think that's the last we've heard of here. I'm sure she'll be continuing in politics and / or activism in some form, but as for the presidency, it's that last of her.

Wait, I thought she will be locked up. Are felons allowed to run for President?