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View Poll Results: Will Trump be a good President?
Yes 71 27.41%
No 188 72.59%
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  #6961  
Old 25.04.2017, 18:37
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Originally Posted by BokerTov View Post
True that.

I have a lot of vacation time (for US standards) and yet, aside from business travels which are unavoidable, I have pretty much reduced my outside-USA travels to only two family visits per year. Italy (and maybe Germany) at Christmas, Brazil in the spring/summer. Because I miss my family, but also because I must. If my family was in the USA, not sure I would leave the country at all for personal travel, to be honest.

I have always been travel-curious, but in the last year or so I have had less and less desire to leave the USA at all. The country is yuuuuge and there are enough things to see, even in our backyard. Plus, if I must, I'd rather spend two hours on a plane and be done with it, rather than 20 hours.

I think I am turning into a grumpy old lady!
It's not a bad thing, enjoy. Somebody told me once I make a good Jewish grandma..like a decade ago, lol. I didn't really know what it means, but it must be smart, hahahah.

Anyways, old agile grannies and people looking like trusty old headmasters rock!
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  #6962  
Old 25.04.2017, 19:35
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Originally Posted by MusicChick View Post
It's not a bad thing, enjoy. Somebody told me once I make a good Jewish grandma..like a decade ago, lol. I didn't really know what it means, but it must be smart, hahahah.

Anyways, old agile grannies and people looking like trusty old headmasters rock!
"Somebody told me once I make a good Jewish grandma." Maybe they tried your chicken soup?
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  #6963  
Old 25.04.2017, 23:58
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

Lucky for the US they have a strong Constitution and judges who support it.

Unlucky for Trump he did not get better advice before making his Campaign promises

Quote:
A federal judge on Tuesday blocked the Trump administration from enforcing a threat to take away funds from sanctuary cities -- the latest blow from the federal judiciary to President Donald Trump's immigration agenda.

In his ruling, Judge William H. Orrick sided with Santa Clara County, the city of San Francisco and other jurisdictions, who argued that a threat to take away federal funds from cities that do not cooperate with some federal immigration enforcement could be unconstitutional.

In making the ruling apply nationwide, Orrick blocked the government from enforcing a key portion of Trump's January executive order on immigration, which ordered the Department of Homeland Security and Justice Department to block cities who do not cooperate with federal immigration enforcement from receiving federal funds.
Source

Does not help Trump's 100 day reputation
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Old 26.04.2017, 07:29
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

Nor does this.

Trump backs down on border wall funding.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39708768
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  #6965  
Old 26.04.2017, 13:37
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Originally Posted by amogles View Post
My OH, who is German, mostly travels with her ID within Europe.

In fact she didn't have a passport until she first visited the USA about 6 years ago. I think she had allowed her previous passport to expire some tim in the 1980s and never felt the need for one since. Most EU and neighbouring countries are quite happy allowing you in with an ID.

Entering the Uk was also possible on an ID.

She has taken to using her passport more recently though as this permits her to use the self-scanning machines at UK airports and save some time.

As for the US, I have a friend in Texas who has not only never been outside the US, he has never been outside Texas. Maybe he's a bit of a special case, but he's not your rural gun-toting bible-thumping redneck type. On the contrary, he's quite well informed and reasonably educated. He just never had the time or money to travel much.
I think this is the thing we need to remember...A large part of US tourism will be US citizens, visiting other parts of the US. The problem with that is that domestic tourists are domestic usually because its too expensive to be international tourists. They wont be big spenders, and will be relatively small sources of revenue, per tourist.

Generally, international tourists tend to be of a wealthier demographic, so may well spend more money per tourist while in the US, giving them a disproportionate impact on tourism revenue. So while tourist numbers might not change massively, the amount of $ spent by tourists could change significantly.

Secondly the relatively low vacation time offered in the US means most families will take 1 vacation a year, with most not being able to afford or receive time off for 2-3, like in Europe. This means the 'window' for attracting US tourists is relatively small. If a US family travels in summer, they probably wont travel over Christmas. If they go away for Christmas, they are likely to save their vacation days for then. Unlike in Europe, where its quite common for people to have 2-3 week-long vacations a year, plus a number of other short city trips or other days off work. It also explains why prices around the holidays are proportionally more ridiculous in the US compared to Europe.

And thirdly, international tourists spend international money in the US - In other words, they are a net contributors to the US economy, they are investors. Domestic tourists take money from one state to another - so while the state might benefit economically, the overall US doesn't. If they didn't spend that money on a vacation (and therefore tourism), they would either save it or spend it on something else. in other words, no real net gain, for the USA. Hence, international tourists are for more desirable.

All in all, if international tourist numbers drop by a significant percentage, there will be a significant impact on the overall US tourism industry revenues.
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  #6966  
Old 26.04.2017, 14:18
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Originally Posted by J2488 View Post
I think this is the thing we need to remember...A large part of US tourism will be US citizens, visiting other parts of the US. The problem with that is that domestic tourists are domestic usually because its too expensive to be international tourists. They wont be big spenders, and will be relatively small sources of revenue, per tourist.

Generally, international tourists tend to be of a wealthier demographic, so may well spend more money per tourist while in the US, giving them a disproportionate impact on tourism revenue. So while tourist numbers might not change massively, the amount of $ spent by tourists could change significantly.

Secondly the relatively low vacation time offered in the US means most families will take 1 vacation a year, with most not being able to afford or receive time off for 2-3, like in Europe. This means the 'window' for attracting US tourists is relatively small. If a US family travels in summer, they probably wont travel over Christmas. If they go away for Christmas, they are likely to save their vacation days for then. Unlike in Europe, where its quite common for people to have 2-3 week-long vacations a year, plus a number of other short city trips or other days off work. It also explains why prices around the holidays are proportionally more ridiculous in the US compared to Europe.

And thirdly, international tourists spend international money in the US - In other words, they are a net contributors to the US economy, they are investors. Domestic tourists take money from one state to another - so while the state might benefit economically, the overall US doesn't. If they didn't spend that money on a vacation (and therefore tourism), they would either save it or spend it on something else. in other words, no real net gain, for the USA. Hence, international tourists are for more desirable.

All in all, if international tourist numbers drop by a significant percentage, there will be a significant impact on the overall US tourism industry revenues.

If you couple that with the fact that US workers only get ~10 holidays a year, then their opportunity to contribute to the overall tourism stats is limited compared to many foreigners.
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  #6967  
Old 26.04.2017, 14:29
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

Coincidence this happened in Trump's 100 days?

Quote:
On Tuesday, the World Trade Organization ruled in Mexico's favor about US tuna labelling, allowing it to impose trade sanctions worth $163 million a year against the U.S.
The WTO says that's how much money Mexico has lost from the U.S. unfairly penalizing Mexican tuna.
Source

Mexico's economic ministry said it would immediately take actions to reclaim the $163 million per year since 2008 the WTO said it had lost from the U.S. restrictions.
That will make a nearly 2 Bn hole in the Wall
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  #6968  
Old 26.04.2017, 15:10
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Originally Posted by marton View Post
Lucky for the US they have a strong Constitution and judges who support it.

Unlucky for Trump he did not get better advice before making his Campaign promises

Quote:
A federal judge on Tuesday blocked the Trump administration from enforcing a threat to take away funds from sanctuary cities -- the latest blow from the federal judiciary to President Donald Trump's immigration agenda.

In his ruling, Judge William H. Orrick sided with Santa Clara County, the city of San Francisco and other jurisdictions, who argued that a threat to take away federal funds from cities that do not cooperate with some federal immigration enforcement could be unconstitutional.

In making the ruling apply nationwide, Orrick blocked the government from enforcing a key portion of Trump's January executive order on immigration, which ordered the Department of Homeland Security and Justice Department to block cities who do not cooperate with federal immigration enforcement from receiving federal funds.
Source

Does not help Trump's 100 day reputation
Trump tweet today,

Quote:
Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump 2h2 hours ago

Out of our very big country, with many choices, does everyone notice that both the "ban" case and now the "sanctuary" case is brought in ....the Ninth Circuit, which has a terrible record of being overturned (close to 80%). They used to call this "judge shopping!" Messy system.
The "sanctuary" case was not actually brought in the Ninth Circuit, Judge William Orrick, who handed down Wednesday’s injunction, is a U.S. district court judge based in San Francisco and does not sit on the 9th circuit.
The Hawaiian ban was brought in the 3rd circuit, so one out of three were Ninth Circuit!

It is not true that close to 80% of Ninth Circuit rulings are overturned.
The only Ninth Circuit rulings taken to the Supreme Court are those that have a good chance of being overturned. Actually less than 1% of Ninth Circuit rulings go to the Supreme Court so in reality only about 0.8% of the total are overturned.
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  #6969  
Old 26.04.2017, 15:25
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Originally Posted by marton View Post
...It is not true that close to 80% of Ninth Circuit rulings are overturned.
The only Ninth Circuit rulings taken to the Supreme Court are those that have a good chance of being overturned. Actually less than 1% of Ninth Circuit rulings go to the Supreme Court so in reality only about 0.8% of the total are overturned.
Well, sorta. It's mis-stated, most likely on purpose. Although only about 1% of the total cases from the 9th get appealed to the SCOTUS, 80% of that 1% get overturned.
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  #6970  
Old 26.04.2017, 16:13
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Originally Posted by 3Wishes View Post
Well, sorta. It's mis-stated, most likely on purpose. Although only about 1% of the total cases from the 9th get appealed to the SCOTUS, 80% of that 1% get overturned.
The figure is meaningless if not compared to the overturn rate for cases from other courts.
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  #6971  
Old 26.04.2017, 16:14
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Originally Posted by 3Wishes View Post
Well, sorta. It's mis-stated, most likely on purpose. Although only about 1% of the total cases from the 9th get appealed to the SCOTUS, 80% of that 1% get overturned.
Of course you can say that but it does not really help to understand how well the 9th performs.
For example, in the 12 months leading up to March, 31, 2015, just under 12,000 cases were filed in the 9th Circuit. Despite that gigantic docket, the Supreme Court heard just 11 cases from the 9th Circuit in 2015, reversing eight.

For far more boring details read here.

So Trump tweeting "the Ninth Circuit, which has a terrible record of being overturned" is just another Trump lie.
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  #6972  
Old 26.04.2017, 16:53
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Originally Posted by marton View Post
For example, in the 12 months leading up to March, 31, 2015, just under 12,000 cases were filed in the 9th Circuit. Despite that gigantic docket, the Supreme Court heard just 11 cases from the 9th Circuit in 2015, reversing eight.
Isn't that 73% of 0.09% -- i.e. just 0.06% -- of 9th Circuit decisions (assuming all cases were decided) that were overturned in the SCOTUS, then? Seems like a pretty reliably accurate decision-making body to me.
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  #6973  
Old 26.04.2017, 17:03
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Originally Posted by StirB View Post
If you couple that with the fact that US workers only get ~10 holidays a year, then their opportunity to contribute to the overall tourism stats is limited compared to many foreigners.
A good comparision to understand the situation is to compare the opening days of the follwing amusement parks: Bushgardens Wiliamsburg, VA and Six Flags Great Adventure Jackson, NJ vs. Bushgardens Tampa, FL; Europa Park Rust, DE; or Heide Park Soltau, DE.
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  #6974  
Old 26.04.2017, 17:10
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Originally Posted by aSwissInTheUS View Post
A good comparision to understand the situation is to compare the opening days of the follwing amusement parks: Bushgardens Wiliamsburg, VA and Six Flags Great Adventure Jackson, NJ vs. Bushgardens Tampa, FL; Europa Park Rust, DE; or Heide Park Soltau, DE.
From my rudimentary understanding of theme parks (gleaned pretty much exclusively from Bullfrog's game of the same name) I presume it's hard to compare opening days like that as it is hugely weather based. Ain't nobody going to a theme park when it's raining.
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  #6975  
Old 26.04.2017, 17:22
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Originally Posted by StirB View Post
From my rudimentary understanding of theme parks (gleaned pretty much exclusively from Bullfrog's game of the same name) I presume it's hard to compare opening days like that as it is hugely weather based. Ain't nobody going to a theme park when it's raining.
I think aSITUS's point was to look at the date (how early in the season) each of those parks opens, not the number of visitors on opening day.

Europa Park, for example, is closed most of the year, or so it seems to me (the parent of a 9-year-old EP fanatic).
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  #6976  
Old 26.04.2017, 17:30
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Originally Posted by 22 yards View Post
I think aSITUS's point was to look at the date (how early in the season) each of those parks opens, not the number of visitors on opening day.

Europa Park, for example, is closed most of the year, or so it seems to me (the parent of a 9-year-old EP fanatic).
But isn't that a function of demand which is itself a function of weather?

Also, EP is open April to January, so just closed for the very coldest months.
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Old 26.04.2017, 18:32
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Originally Posted by J2488 View Post
I think this is the thing we need to remember...A large part of US tourism will be US citizens, visiting other parts of the US. The problem with that is that domestic tourists are domestic usually because its too expensive to be international tourists. They wont be big spenders, and will be relatively small sources of revenue, per tourist.

Generally, international tourists tend to be of a wealthier demographic, so may well spend more money per tourist while in the US, giving them a disproportionate impact on tourism revenue. So while tourist numbers might not change massively, the amount of $ spent by tourists could change significantly.

Secondly the relatively low vacation time offered in the US means most families will take 1 vacation a year, with most not being able to afford or receive time off for 2-3, like in Europe. This means the 'window' for attracting US tourists is relatively small. If a US family travels in summer, they probably wont travel over Christmas. If they go away for Christmas, they are likely to save their vacation days for then. Unlike in Europe, where its quite common for people to have 2-3 week-long vacations a year, plus a number of other short city trips or other days off work. It also explains why prices around the holidays are proportionally more ridiculous in the US compared to Europe.

And thirdly, international tourists spend international money in the US - In other words, they are a net contributors to the US economy, they are investors. Domestic tourists take money from one state to another - so while the state might benefit economically, the overall US doesn't. If they didn't spend that money on a vacation (and therefore tourism), they would either save it or spend it on something else. in other words, no real net gain, for the USA. Hence, international tourists are for more desirable.

All in all, if international tourist numbers drop by a significant percentage, there will be a significant impact on the overall US tourism industry revenues.
I think you also need to look at the type of facility.

If you measure the economic benefits of tourism purely in terms of net flow of money into or out of a country, then a place like Disneyworld, whose megahotels have a high dependency on seasonal workers - probably from places like Mexico - will mean that there is money flowing out of the US as workers send money home. If the visitors are also largely foreign, that outflow may be offset by the greater inflow of cash. If visitors are largely American, the outflow will be greater than the inflow and America loses money. If you compare this to say a farmhouse B&B in Amish Country, there will probably be a far lower percentage of that money that flows out of the country, and so it takes only a very small percentage of foreign tourists to make the cash flow positive for America.
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Old 26.04.2017, 21:23
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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But isn't that a function of demand which is itself a function of weather?

Also, EP is open April to January, so just closed for the very coldest months.
Sorry I first wrote "opening hours", then changed it to "opening days" w/o realizing it has an other meaning than "the days on which the park is open".

Sure, EP and Heide Park are open from April 1st till End of October. Straight. Only a few day were they are closed. Six Flags Great America and Bushgardens Wiliamsburg on the other hand start slow. First only weekends, plus maybe a few day during the week. They only start to be open all days of the week with the start of the school summer holiday. And with the end of that they are again only open on weekends and a few days during the week.

This has nothing to do with the weather. May has perfect weather at that locations. Also September is perfectly fine. Or at least not worse than in Europe. If you actually visit those parks at one of the May weekdays you will really enjoy it. Apart from some mothers with small kids, a few classes on field trip you have the park virtually for you alone and you can literally ride at nauseam.

The point is: Local tourism is not the same as in Europe. You cannot really afford to take a day off work during the week as easily as we can here. It also shows how popular places, even near large city such as New York, do when they have only U.S. but not many foreign tourists.
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Old 27.04.2017, 00:54
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Also, EP is open April to January, so just closed for the very coldest months.
It's closed for three months in winter/spring (even though the temperature can be hitting 20° in March), three weeks in November and just to make sure, it's closed for two days over Christmas, too -- at exactly the time when just about everybody is on holidays.

But we digress.
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Old 27.04.2017, 08:00
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

Not sure you can bank on a good March in southern Germany! You'd expect all these places to be closed at Xmas too, every gets time off then, including park workers!

Anyway, aSwissintheUS has cleared up our opening days confusion.
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