Will Trump be a Good President? - Page 783

Urs Max · #**15641** 17.09.2018, 20:19

	Quote:
	Fair enough, one rape is fine, 2+ too many, I'll keep that in mind.

It's not (only) about the number of inicidents, it's about being reasonably certain. Apparently they were by two, if the other aggressor confirms the incident there is a case.

Would you react the same if it was about a Democrat? Or about a women? Being a Republican is not a crime.

How would you, or anybody else reading this and finding it just to act based on unconfirmed allegations, like to be found guilty without actual prrof?

#**15642** 17.09.2018, 20:24

	Quote:
	Fair enough, one rape is fine, 2+ too many, I'll keep that in mind.

No alleged rape took place according to the accuser. Sexual assault is claimed but rape is a far more egregious offense... Let's not confuse the two...

#**15643** 17.09.2018, 20:26

	Quote:	Urs Max
	It's not (only) about the number of inicidents, it's about being reasonably certain. Apparently they were by two, if the other aggressor confirms the incident there is a case. Would you react the same if it was about a Democrat? Or about a women? Being a Republican is not a crime. How would you, or anybody else reading this and finding it just to act based on unconfirmed allegations, like to be found guilty without actual prrof?

Another Whoosh I'm afraid, Urs.

marton · #**15644** 17.09.2018, 21:25

	Quote:	terrifisch
	Third party involved in this alleged event is Mark Judge who denies that this ever occurred. Interesting article sent to me by a friend today who subscribes to the Washington Post which sheds more detail on the accuser and what she says took place. Note that her recollection is murky at best (in terms of when and where and how she got there). I found the last two paragraphs the most interesting: https://www.washingtonpost.com/inves...=.bacb8b1311d5

Was this alleged incident an isolated case or will there be more?

The way the alleged incident is described seems to indicate a pattern of behaviour but it remains an isolated case without further complaints.

marton · #**15645** 17.09.2018, 21:59

	Quote:	Urs Max
	The 95% confidence interval for the number of excess deaths ranges from 793 to 8498. That's more than a full order of magnitude between the extremes! And keep in mind, this is with 95% confidence. That is, statistically speaking, in 1 of 20 cases the excess death toll probably lies outside of that confidence interval. That's not a result you can put a number on you're fairly safe to be reasonably accurate. In my book the study essentially says "There quite probably were some unnecessary deaths but we can't really assign a meaningful number with confidence."

Even the minimum number in this range is 50 times the number of deaths quoted by Trump.

If he had done a better job of restoring infrastructure in Puerto Rico then the confidence would have been much higher.

Hurricane Maria hit the island on Sept. 20, 2017. The first 2,600 soldiers arrived in Puerto Rico eight days later and would stay until mid-November.

Compare with US mainland and Hurricane Florence where 7,000 troops were available on day 1.

Or compare with the Haiti earthquake where the first US troops arrived after 2 days.

marton · #**15646** 17.09.2018, 22:29

	Quote:	marton
	Was this alleged incident an isolated case or will there be more? The way the alleged incident is described seems to indicate a pattern of behaviour but it remains an isolated case without further complaints.

	Quote:
	Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said Monday that Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh denies attending an early 1980s party at the center of a sexual assault allegation against him.

Source

Impressive, I do not remember every party I attended three years ago, never mind over 30 years!

Brett Kavanaugh would be better advised to keep his mouth shut!

Mark Judge told the New York Times on Friday," I never saw anything like what was described." So he was at this party? With Kavanaugh?

Mark Judge wrote his 1997 memoir, "Wasted: Tales of a GenX Drunk".

It is claimed that some quotes are;
"His drinking became so extreme that he had blackout episodes, and woke up on the floor of a restaurant bathroom with no memory of how he got there.
Once “I had the first beer, I found it impossible to stop until I was completely annihilated,” he wrote."

Judge said last week he had no memory of the incident described by Kavanaugh’s accuser.

Great character witness

#**15647** 17.09.2018, 22:35

	Quote:	marton
	Was this alleged incident an isolated case or will there be more? The way the alleged incident is described seems to indicate a pattern of behaviour but it remains an isolated case without further complaints.

No other complaints have surfaced. I am registered as an independent in terms of voting in the US and so I have no party alliance/agenda here. But I have a very close relative who was raped and almost killed and I assure you, she knows the exact hour, day and month - notwithstanding second this occurred. She has struggled for years to recover and so I find it curious that this woman cannot even remember the exact year, nor month, nor venue, nor how she got there etc...

Given what my close relative went through/is going through...this seems really odd. And the timing seems suspect as well... I would love to believe her but cannot given her lack of recall. I would expect this from someone drugged or knocked unconscious but this never happened in her case. Something seems amiss...

Urs Max · #**15648** 17.09.2018, 22:50

	Quote:
	Another Whoosh I'm afraid, Urs.

Another one that wasn't there until you posted.

Urs Max · #**15649** 17.09.2018, 22:54

	Quote:	marton
	Even the minimum number in this range is 50 times the number of deaths quoted by Trump.

Stick to the timeframe defined by his visit. That's what he talks about.

If you move the goalpost you'll only play his game, where he'll beat you by experience.

#**15650** 17.09.2018, 22:56

	Quote:	terrifisch
	No other complaints have surfaced. I am registered as an independent in terms of voting in the US and so I have no party alliance/agenda here. But I have a very close relative who was raped and almost killed and I assure you, she knows the exact hour, day and month - notwithstanding second this occurred. She has struggled for years to recover and so I find it curious that this woman cannot even remember the exact year, nor month, nor venue, nor how she got there etc... Given what my close relative went through/is going through...this seems really odd. And the timing seems suspect as well... I would love to believe her but cannot given her lack of recall. I would expect this from someone drugged or knocked unconscious but this never happened in her case. Something seems amiss...

I'm genuinely sorry for your relative. But please be aware that not everybody deals with such trauma the way she has. Some subconsciously, or even actively, try to displace the traumatic event from their memories. This is often a "feature" of PTSD, which can occur not only in soldiers in combat zones, but in anybody who undergoes a severe trauma, whether physical or mental.

Please don't dismiss any woman who claims to be a victim of sexual abuse just because she has managed to bury her experience in her subconscious. That's exactly what the misogynists and deniers do.

#**15651** 17.09.2018, 23:02

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Stick to the timeframe defined by his visit. That's what he talks about. If you move the goalpost you'll only play his game, where he'll beat you by experience.

You've fallen straight into Trump's trap. He is the one setting new goalposts. How many people died due to the hurricane in Puerto Rico? About 3,000. Any other selective reading of the situation is utterly ridiculous.

Is Trump also going to claim that only 265 people died in the September 11th attacks 17 years ago? After all, that's how many people were on the planes that crashed with no survivors. Other people "may" have died later as a result of buildings falling down, or of old age, but hey, that's not what HE was talking about.

marton · #**15652** 17.09.2018, 23:05

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Stick to the timeframe defined by his visit. That's what he talks about. If you move the goalpost you'll only play his game, where he'll beat you by experience.

At the time of his visit, according to Trump himself, most of the island's electricity infrastructure and communications network was not working so what level of confidence was there in the casualty statistics quoted?

#**15653** 17.09.2018, 23:17

	Quote:
	I'm genuinely sorry for your relative. But please be aware that not everybody deals with such trauma the way she has. Some subconsciously, or even actively, try to displace the traumatic event from their memories. This is often a "feature" of PTSD, which can occur not only in soldiers in combat zones, but in anybody who undergoes a severe trauma, whether physical or mental. Please don't dismiss any woman who claims to be a victim of sexual abuse just because she has managed to bury her experience in her subconscious. That's exactly what the misogynists and deniers do.

Trust me, I have done extensive research on PTSD. In most cases, those afflicted are hounded by images, nightmares, details etc... And yet this woman cannot recall the exact year this offense took place, nor month, nor day, nor venue? And she was not even raped but claims she was assaulted? Sorry, but this does not run concurrent with my research nor experience with my family member. Most PTSD victims, with which my family member still struggles, remember too much and struggle daily. Therein lies the problem. This accuser forgets and changes her story and it has been how many years?

Memory wreaks havoc and maybe something happened long ago with which she cannot reconcile. But her glaring omission of details is suspect in my view...

marton · #**15654** 17.09.2018, 23:25

	Quote:	terrifisch
	Trust me, I have done extensive research on PTSD. In most cases, those afflicted are hounded by images, nightmares, details etc... And yet this woman cannot recall the exact year this offense took place, nor month, nor day, nor venue? And she was not even raped but claims she was assaulted? Sorry, but this does not run concurrent with my research nor experience with my family member. Most PTSD victims, with which my family member still struggles, remember too much and struggle daily. Therein lies the problem. This accuser forgets and changes her story and it has been how many years? Memory wreaks havoc and maybe something happened long ago with which she cannot reconcile. But her glaring omission of details is suspect in my view...

Trust me! LOL!

Statistically most posters on internet forums are pre-teens

#**15655** 17.09.2018, 23:45

How does this work?

marton · #**15656** 18.09.2018, 01:01

	Quote:
	Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump “Lisa Page Testimony- NO EVIDENCE OF COLLUSION BEFORE MUELLER APPOINTMENT.” @FoxNews by Catherine Herridge. Therefore, the case should never have been allowed to be brought. It is a totally illegal Witch Hunt!

"Case"? What case?
Poor confused old guy should be sitting in a rocking chair in a retirement home not with his thumb on the nuclear Armageddon button

Meanwhile

	Quote:
	The investigation into Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Brock Long's alleged misuse of government vehicles has been referred to federal prosecutors. Long and two other federal employees may have broken multiple laws in their use of government resources. The incident was under review by the inspector general's office, but has since been referred to the U.S. attorney's office.

Source

	Quote:
	Trump to declassify controversial text messages, documents related to Russia probe

Source

Wonder if Trump has read them first?
So far all the documents that have been released have weakened the GOP claims!

omtatsat · #**15657** 18.09.2018, 08:39

Let's hope that the woman that Kavanagh tried to rape and assaulted has a good lawyer when they question her.! Guess he's keeping up the Trump tradition.....grab em........

greenmount · #**15658** 18.09.2018, 09:54

	Quote:	terrifisch
	Third party involved in this alleged event is Mark Judge who denies that this ever occurred. Interesting article sent to me by a friend today who subscribes to the Washington Post which sheds more detail on the accuser and what she says took place. Note that her recollection is murky at best (in terms of when and where and how she got there). I found the last two paragraphs the most interesting: https://www.washingtonpost.com/inves...=.bacb8b1311d5

Incredible. I read the article and there's nothing to support your own conclusion - that her recollection of the events is murky. She decided not to sue or go public with her allegations knowing that it could wreck her life havoc and the assaulter will remain unpunished or unaffected "It's not going to matter"...the whole story transpired without her consent and we have no idea what was in the original report. The article can lead you to a certain conclusion, but you're putting it as if there's actually evidence for it.

#**15659** 18.09.2018, 10:09

	Quote:	greenmount
	Incredible. I read the article and there's nothing to support your own conclusion - that her recollection of the events is murky. She decided not to sue or go public with her allegations knowing that it could wreck her life havoc and the assaulter will remain unpunished or unaffected "It's not going to matter"...the whole story transpired without her consent and we have no idea what was in the original report. The article can lead you to a certain conclusion, but you're putting it as if there's actually evidence for it.

I don't whether you read the WHOLE article but in the last few paragraphs she says, she is unsure but thinks the event took place in the summer of 1982, she is not sure of the date nor month and she doesn't know the exact location where the event occurred nor how she got there.

You need to REREAD and pay closer attention to detail!!

Incredible indeed!

taduncombe · #**15660** 18.09.2018, 10:22

	Quote:	greenmount
	Incredible. I read the article and there's nothing to support your own conclusion - that her recollection of the events is murky. She decided not to sue or go public with her allegations knowing that it could wreck her life havoc and the assaulter will remain unpunished or unaffected "It's not going to matter"...the whole story transpired without her consent and we have no idea what was in the original report. The article can lead you to a certain conclusion, but you're putting it as if there's actually evidence for it.

Yeah, no idea how one gets from that article to terrifisch's conclusion.
>Therapist notes from 6 years ago with details of the incident
>Passed polygraph test
>Contacted the media anonymously as soon as Kavanaugh's name was mentioned (before his nomination).

Here is an expert on false accusations describing the characteristics of them (this was written a year ago)
https://qz.com/980766/the-truth-abou...e-accusations/

Here is the twitter thread from this expert on Christine's particular case:

	Quote:
	Ford's accusation has none of the characteristics of a false accusation. False accusations tend to paint the attacker as extraordinarily evil and deliberately cruel, not as a kid who is doing something really awful and stupid while black-out drunk. There is also a grand guignol quality to a lot of false accusations. If you read the UVA accuser's story, or the Duke accuser's story, you can see this. They're involve bizarre forms of violence that aren't even strictly physically possible. A thing you will not get in a false accusation is an element of slapstick, as in Ford's account of the second boy in the room jumping on top & tumbling Kavanaugh loose so she could get free. A person seeking to harm someone doesn't add comic relief. False accusers do NOT, contrary to popular belief, have a pattern of reporting a rape thirty years after the fact. This could happen, but it's not a thing that crops up over and over. In fact, in my research, I found no proven instance of this ever happening. False accusers are typically either stressed teens or people with a specific kind of serious mental illness. Not successful adults just going about their business who suddenly decide to do one really crazy pernicious thing that will ruin their life. This story is nothing like the typical false rape accusation. It is, however, exactly like millions of attempted rapes. It is such a common story that it is certain that it's happening to many people as I type this sentence.