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View Poll Results: Will Trump be a good President?
Yes 88 27.16%
No 236 72.84%
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  #15661  
Old 17.09.2018, 21:50
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Another Whoosh I'm afraid, Urs.
Another one that wasn't there until you posted.
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  #15662  
Old 17.09.2018, 21:54
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Even the minimum number in this range is 50 times the number of deaths quoted by Trump.
Stick to the timeframe defined by his visit. That's what he talks about.

If you move the goalpost you'll only play his game, where he'll beat you by experience.
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  #15663  
Old 17.09.2018, 21:56
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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No other complaints have surfaced. I am registered as an independent in terms of voting in the US and so I have no party alliance/agenda here. But I have a very close relative who was raped and almost killed and I assure you, she knows the exact hour, day and month - notwithstanding second this occurred. She has struggled for years to recover and so I find it curious that this woman cannot even remember the exact year, nor month, nor venue, nor how she got there etc...

Given what my close relative went through/is going through...this seems really odd. And the timing seems suspect as well... I would love to believe her but cannot given her lack of recall. I would expect this from someone drugged or knocked unconscious but this never happened in her case. Something seems amiss...
I'm genuinely sorry for your relative. But please be aware that not everybody deals with such trauma the way she has. Some subconsciously, or even actively, try to displace the traumatic event from their memories. This is often a "feature" of PTSD, which can occur not only in soldiers in combat zones, but in anybody who undergoes a severe trauma, whether physical or mental.

Please don't dismiss any woman who claims to be a victim of sexual abuse just because she has managed to bury her experience in her subconscious. That's exactly what the misogynists and deniers do.
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  #15664  
Old 17.09.2018, 22:02
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Stick to the timeframe defined by his visit. That's what he talks about.

If you move the goalpost you'll only play his game, where he'll beat you by experience.
You've fallen straight into Trump's trap. He is the one setting new goalposts. How many people died due to the hurricane in Puerto Rico? About 3,000. Any other selective reading of the situation is utterly ridiculous.

Is Trump also going to claim that only 265 people died in the September 11th attacks 17 years ago? After all, that's how many people were on the planes that crashed with no survivors. Other people "may" have died later as a result of buildings falling down, or of old age, but hey, that's not what HE was talking about.
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  #15665  
Old 17.09.2018, 22:05
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Stick to the timeframe defined by his visit. That's what he talks about.

If you move the goalpost you'll only play his game, where he'll beat you by experience.
At the time of his visit, according to Trump himself, most of the island's electricity infrastructure and communications network was not working so what level of confidence was there in the casualty statistics quoted?
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  #15666  
Old 17.09.2018, 22:17
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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I'm genuinely sorry for your relative. But please be aware that not everybody deals with such trauma the way she has. Some subconsciously, or even actively, try to displace the traumatic event from their memories. This is often a "feature" of PTSD, which can occur not only in soldiers in combat zones, but in anybody who undergoes a severe trauma, whether physical or mental.

Please don't dismiss any woman who claims to be a victim of sexual abuse just because she has managed to bury her experience in her subconscious. That's exactly what the misogynists and deniers do.
Trust me, I have done extensive research on PTSD. In most cases, those afflicted are hounded by images, nightmares, details etc... And yet this woman cannot recall the exact year this offense took place, nor month, nor day, nor venue? And she was not even raped but claims she was assaulted? Sorry, but this does not run concurrent with my research nor experience with my family member. Most PTSD victims, with which my family member still struggles, remember too much and struggle daily. Therein lies the problem. This accuser forgets and changes her story and it has been how many years?

Memory wreaks havoc and maybe something happened long ago with which she cannot reconcile. But her glaring omission of details is suspect in my view...
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  #15667  
Old 17.09.2018, 22:25
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Trust me, I have done extensive research on PTSD. In most cases, those afflicted are hounded by images, nightmares, details etc... And yet this woman cannot recall the exact year this offense took place, nor month, nor day, nor venue? And she was not even raped but claims she was assaulted? Sorry, but this does not run concurrent with my research nor experience with my family member. Most PTSD victims, with which my family member still struggles, remember too much and struggle daily. Therein lies the problem. This accuser forgets and changes her story and it has been how many years?

Memory wreaks havoc and maybe something happened long ago with which she cannot reconcile. But her glaring omission of details is suspect in my view...
Trust me! LOL!

Statistically most posters on internet forums are pre-teens
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Old 17.09.2018, 22:45
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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  #15669  
Old 18.09.2018, 00:01
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

“Lisa Page Testimony- NO EVIDENCE OF COLLUSION BEFORE MUELLER APPOINTMENT.” @FoxNews by Catherine Herridge.
Therefore, the case should never have been allowed to be brought.
It is a totally illegal Witch Hunt!
"Case"? What case?
Poor confused old guy should be sitting in a rocking chair in a retirement home not with his thumb on the nuclear Armageddon button

Meanwhile
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The investigation into Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Brock Long's alleged misuse of government vehicles has been referred to federal prosecutors.

Long and two other federal employees may have broken multiple laws in their use of government resources. The incident was under review by the inspector general's office, but has since been referred to the U.S. attorney's office.
Source

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Trump to declassify controversial text messages, documents related to Russia probe
Source

Wonder if Trump has read them first?
So far all the documents that have been released have weakened the GOP claims!
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  #15670  
Old 18.09.2018, 07:39
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

Let's hope that the woman that Kavanagh tried to rape and assaulted has a good lawyer when they question her.! Guess he's keeping up the Trump tradition.....grab em........
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  #15671  
Old 18.09.2018, 08:54
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Third party involved in this alleged event is Mark Judge who denies that this ever occurred. Interesting article sent to me by a friend today who subscribes to the Washington Post which sheds more detail on the accuser and what she says took place. Note that her recollection is murky at best (in terms of when and where and how she got there). I found the last two paragraphs the most interesting:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inves...=.bacb8b1311d5
Incredible. I read the article and there's nothing to support your own conclusion - that her recollection of the events is murky. She decided not to sue or go public with her allegations knowing that it could wreck her life havoc and the assaulter will remain unpunished or unaffected "It's not going to matter"...the whole story transpired without her consent and we have no idea what was in the original report. The article can lead you to a certain conclusion, but you're putting it as if there's actually evidence for it.
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Old 18.09.2018, 09:09
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Incredible. I read the article and there's nothing to support your own conclusion - that her recollection of the events is murky. She decided not to sue or go public with her allegations knowing that it could wreck her life havoc and the assaulter will remain unpunished or unaffected "It's not going to matter"...the whole story transpired without her consent and we have no idea what was in the original report. The article can lead you to a certain conclusion, but you're putting it as if there's actually evidence for it.
I don't whether you read the WHOLE article but in the last few paragraphs she says, she is unsure but thinks the event took place in the summer of 1982, she is not sure of the date nor month and she doesn't know the exact location where the event occurred nor how she got there.

You need to REREAD and pay closer attention to detail!!

Incredible indeed!
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  #15673  
Old 18.09.2018, 09:22
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Incredible. I read the article and there's nothing to support your own conclusion - that her recollection of the events is murky. She decided not to sue or go public with her allegations knowing that it could wreck her life havoc and the assaulter will remain unpunished or unaffected "It's not going to matter"...the whole story transpired without her consent and we have no idea what was in the original report. The article can lead you to a certain conclusion, but you're putting it as if there's actually evidence for it.
Yeah, no idea how one gets from that article to terrifisch's conclusion.
>Therapist notes from 6 years ago with details of the incident
>Passed polygraph test
>Contacted the media anonymously as soon as Kavanaugh's name was mentioned (before his nomination).

Here is an expert on false accusations describing the characteristics of them (this was written a year ago)
https://qz.com/980766/the-truth-abou...e-accusations/

Here is the twitter thread from this expert on Christine's particular case:
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Ford's accusation has none of the characteristics of a false accusation.

False accusations tend to paint the attacker as extraordinarily evil and deliberately cruel, not as a kid who is doing something really awful and stupid while black-out drunk.

There is also a grand guignol quality to a lot of false accusations. If you read the UVA accuser's story, or the Duke accuser's story, you can see this. They're involve bizarre forms of violence that aren't even strictly physically possible.

A thing you will not get in a false accusation is an element of slapstick, as in Ford's account of the second boy in the room jumping on top & tumbling Kavanaugh loose so she could get free. A person seeking to harm someone doesn't add comic relief.

False accusers do NOT, contrary to popular belief, have a pattern of reporting a rape thirty years after the fact. This *could* happen, but it's not a thing that crops up over and over. In fact, in my research, I found no proven instance of this ever happening.

False accusers are typically either stressed teens or people with a specific kind of serious mental illness. Not successful adults just going about their business who suddenly decide to do one really crazy pernicious thing that will ruin their life.

This story is nothing like the typical false rape accusation. It is, however, exactly like millions of attempted rapes. It is such a common story that it is certain that it's happening to many people as I type this sentence.
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Old 18.09.2018, 09:44
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Yeah, no idea how one gets from that article to terrifisch's conclusion.
>Therapist notes from 6 years ago with details of the incident
>Passed polygraph test
>Contacted the media anonymously as soon as Kavanaugh's name was mentioned (before his nomination).
All those points would count for nothing in a court of law.
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Old 18.09.2018, 09:50
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All those points would count for nothing in a court of law.
Why does it have to? It's probably enough to start an investigation, though.
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Old 18.09.2018, 09:53
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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Why does it have to? It's probably enough to start an investigation, though.
Sure, have an investigation then, but don't condemn the man until there is more credible evidence or until he's been found guilty.
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Old 18.09.2018, 09:54
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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All those points would count for nothing in a court of law.
Therapist notes would certainly be admissible in court with permission of those under counseling and a jury would weigh the timing of accusations... but your point is moot anyway because Kavanaugh is not defending himself in a criminal court. He, and his advocates, are arguing that he has the professional and moral standing to serve as a Supreme Court justice.

He doesn't go to jail if he is deemed unworthy, just back to his life.
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Old 18.09.2018, 10:02
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He doesn't go to jail if he is deemed unworthy, just back to his life.
As a judge
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Old 18.09.2018, 10:29
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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You've fallen straight into Trump's trap. He is the one setting new goalposts. How many people died due to the hurricane in Puerto Rico? About 3,000. Any other selective reading of the situation is utterly ridiculous.
You can criticize Trump for not updating his numbers, but you can't honestly accuse him of lying this time around. You can criticize the official statistics to be inaccurate but that's definitely not Trump's fault.

But how about some hard facts for a change?

The chart below is taken from an article in the JAMA Internal Medicine magazine, which is published by the American Medical Association and AFAIK will get peer-reviewed. It shows the the expected deaths based on recent years' actual numbers, and the actual deaths in Puerto Rico. Note that the death rate has been rising since 2009 from 7.75 to 8.51 in 2015, and 8.6 in 2017, so the expected number of deaths is a bit too low as the trend hasn't been taken into account; the 2017 numbers show it persisted.

In December the number of deaths was back in the 95% CI so no excess deaths from that month. The other three add up to 1139 deaths above the 95% CI range (1'543 excess deaths compared to the mean and including December).

Now, obviously some people would have died even with perfect emergency services so the number of avoidable deaths was less than either 1'139 or 1'543, depending on which you take as the correct one.

How many these are is anybody's guess but clearly only a part of those excess deaths can be attributed to insufficient emergency help.

And that gives far less than 3'000. And it shows why the NEJM article linked to earlier is useless.

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Old 18.09.2018, 10:31
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Re: Will Trump be a Good President?

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As a judge
Not just any judge, but a federal judge on the DC circuit. The 2nd most powerful court in the US and led by Chief Justice Merrick Garland (who wasn't even given a hearing because of politics). Where he can live out his dream of blocking women from getting abortions.

We really shouldn't be losing sleep over him, he'll be just fine. The GOP will have plenty of time to get another conservative justice confirmed.
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