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  #301  
Old 11.10.2017, 07:54
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Suspended independence declared by Catalunya. Smart move to go the Slovenian route but I doubt very much that Spain will negotiate
Perhaps if a neutral mediator with enough reputation offers to help they will.
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  #302  
Old 11.10.2017, 15:44
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Perhaps if a neutral mediator with enough reputation offers to help they will.
Like who or what....? It's a serious question because honestly I don't have that much respect or trust for any organisation, institution, country.
Maybe I don't see it for the moment, so a concrete example would help.
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  #303  
Old 11.10.2017, 15:52
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Like who or what....? It's a serious question because honestly I don't have that much respect or trust for any organisation, institution, country.
Maybe I don't see it for the moment, so a concrete example would help.
are you volunteering for the job?
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  #304  
Old 11.10.2017, 15:56
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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are you volunteering for the job?
Not at all, why do you ask such a thing? I was curious to know how people involved think they can move things forward, who would they ask for mediation. It's just a curiosity and if I was in the same positions I wouldn't have known what to answer.

Would you volunteer, btw? Didn't even think of a physical person, but since you started.
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  #305  
Old 11.10.2017, 16:03
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Like who or what....? It's a serious question because honestly I don't have that much respect or trust for any organisation, institution, country.
Maybe I don't see it for the moment, so a concrete example would help.
Jean-Claude Juncker. He's always struck me as a level-headed, fair-minded kind of chap.
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  #306  
Old 11.10.2017, 16:09
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Jean-Claude Juncker. He's always struck me as a level-headed, fair-minded kind of chap.
He's "only" the boss of the European Commission, would like to have an opinion about other members but have no idea who are they or what they really do...lol
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  #307  
Old 11.10.2017, 18:16
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Perhaps if a neutral mediator with enough reputation offers to help they will.
Won't happen regardless of who that would be.

A mediator requires the Ok of all involved. Such an Ok by Rajoy amounts to the admission that he's no longer captain of the ship, no longer in control. His next action wouldn't be to negotiate but to resign.
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  #308  
Old 11.10.2017, 19:51
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

The funny thing is that you only need to google "Puigdemont rechaza ir al Congreso" to find lots of sources (in Spanish) where you will see that in May he refused to attend a session in the Spanish parliament to discuss the proposal for a referendum. But he refused, claiming that the referendum should be agreed first and only then he would go to the parliament.
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  #309  
Old 11.10.2017, 20:29
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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The funny thing is that you only need to google "Puigdemont rechaza ir al Congreso" to find lots of sources (in Spanish) where you will see that in May he refused to attend a session in the Spanish parliament to discuss the proposal for a referendum. But he refused, claiming that the referendum should be agreed first and only then he would go to the parliament.
Was that the only proposal to discuss the referendum or just the last one ?

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Won't happen regardless of who that would be.

A mediator requires the Ok of all involved. Such an Ok by Rajoy amounts to the admission that he's no longer captain of the ship, no longer in control. His next action wouldn't be to negotiate but to resign.
Not only that but even finding the right mediator that both parties would agree with could take a long, long time...

Apparently there was a recent protest amounting aprox. one million people? (it seems it varies from newspaper to newspaper, so much for good journalism, but let's say there were a few hundreds of thousands) who were against independence.

I'm trying to form an accurate opinion for myself (which obviously can bother some who are rather emotionally involved in this matter), but it's really difficult. I, for one, would need way more info than I really have, from both sides. For the moment I'm not pro- neither against- this independence, if that would matter one iota for those who make decisions, of course. It's curiosity.

Last edited by greenmount; 11.10.2017 at 20:46.
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  #310  
Old 11.10.2017, 21:36
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Was that the only proposal to discuss the referendum or just the last one ?
The position of Madrid's government has always been that a referendum is not possible because, as etsius pointed out, it would require a modification of the Constitution. And for that there is a perfectly established procedure, but the independentists don't want to follow (or even try to follow) that route because it would be a lengthy one and I doubt they would have support to enforce the required change.

I do not think that proposal in May was really a proposal to discuss the referendum, but just a move to show that in fact Puigdemont did not really want to negotiate; he just wanted an excuse to declare independence because that (the independence, not the referendum) was the program of Junts pel Sí in the 2015 autonomic elections.

With respect to the support for independence, you can look at multiple polls in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catala...ferendum,_2017, where you will see that the topic is very contested, and far from having a clear support.

In referenda like in Scotland or Quebec turnout was >85% and sometimes >90%, so you need at least 43-45% of the roll to win. In 1st October referendum turnout was 43% with 90% yes, so that is barely 39% of the roll, and you would obtain similar figures using the 2014 data.

And that is without entering the discussion as to whether 50.1% is enough to proceed to such a dramatic change. In my opinion you should need a majority closer to at least 55-60%. Imagine that we could know the opinion of all the people, every day. Just because one day (the day of the vote) you reach 50.1% it does not mean it is a good idea to enter such a complex process, because just a week later the support for independence may have dropped to 49.8% and what do we do then? It would be democratic to stop the process, right? This is why I think a qualified majority is needed.
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  #311  
Old 11.10.2017, 22:36
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Like who or what....? It's a serious question because honestly I don't have that much respect or trust for any organisation, institution, country.
Maybe I don't see it for the moment, so a concrete example would help.
Bern? I believe this one has all is needed https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Didier_Burkhalter
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  #312  
Old 12.10.2017, 09:16
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Bern? I believe this one has all is needed https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Didier_Burkhalter
Yes, but I guess Switzerland would like to stay....well, neutral.

Meantime I read about Vargas Llosa giving a discourse at the anti-separatist meeting and frankly, couldn't help myself but think he shouldn't be there, neither as an anti- nor as a pro- anything and just mind his literature. We love him for that, nobody needs yet another politician. Just my thoughts.

Anyway, things are complicated and only time will tell.
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  #313  
Old 12.10.2017, 09:56
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Worse still, the military is being sent in

That same image appears in tweets going back several years to include problems in Turkey and the Scottich independence referendum.

In other words, it's fake.
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  #314  
Old 12.10.2017, 10:00
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

So 350,000 people turned out for a pro-unity rally in Barcelona at the weekend. If only there was a simple way that the people could be asked so that this could be settled once and for all
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  #315  
Old 12.10.2017, 10:48
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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So 350,000 people turned out for a pro-unity rally in Barcelona at the weekend. If only there was a simple way that the people could be asked so that this could be settled once and for all
Second referendums?

Where is Odile when you need her?
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  #316  
Old 12.10.2017, 10:53
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

Rajoy has told the Catalan government they must make a clear statement of what they actually want.

As others have pointed out, seceessionism is illegal by the constitution.

So I wonder how they're going to get out of that one.
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  #317  
Old 12.10.2017, 11:18
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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the independentists don't want to follow (or even try to follow) that route because it would be a lengthy one and I doubt they would have support to enforce the required change.
To me this is key. The constitution wasn't forced on them, it was voted on and accepted by a huge margin some 40 years ago. Before the Catalans have tried to go the legal way, and tried hard, they lack even the moral right to do what they're doing now.
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  #318  
Old 12.10.2017, 11:23
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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To me this is key. The constitution wasn't forced on them, it was voted on and accepted by a huge margin some 40 years ago. Before the Catalans have tried to go the legal way, and tried hard, they lack even the moral right to do what they're doing now.
I'm no lawyer, but surely if the constitution says, strictly no secession possible, there isn't much you can do within the framework of the constitution - except maybe change the constitution, but that would require the approval of the rest of Spain which probably isn't forthcoming.
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  #319  
Old 12.10.2017, 12:04
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

Article from John Carlin of The Times & formerly of El Pais (Sacked after being critical of Spanish govt)


Three centuries of Catalan grievances came to a head this week, but the intransigence of Spain’s government is ultimately to blame for the crisis

John Carlin

October 7 2017, The Times


Shortly before the King of Spain addressed the nation this week, some of his more rational-minded subjects hoped that maybe, just maybe, he might rise above the petty-mindedness of the Madrid political establishment. He could, they thought, offer a generous vision of how to resolve the crisis caused by the escalating clamour for Catalan independence. No such luck. By the end of his six-minute speech Felipe VI had only made things worse.

Stiff in his bearing, coldly commanding in his tone, he did not build bridges, he dug trenches. He did not lament the police violence during last Sunday’s simulacrum of a referendum in Catalonia, so damaging to his country’s global image; he denounced the “irresponsibility” and “scorn” of the elected Catalan government and threatened more violence. It was the “responsibility of the legitimate state powers”, the king warned, “to ensure constitutional order”, code for if the Catalan government makes good on its promise to declare unilateral independence, we’ll send in the tanks.

Speaking on behalf not of the nation but of central government, he did as prime minister Mariano Rajoy has done these last five years: he abdicated responsibility and, oblivious to what he was doing, abdicated his sovereign hold on the hearts of Catalonia’s increasingly embittered 7.5 million people, 80 per cent of whom are in favour of the right to vote on independence.

Before Sunday several polls indicated that the secessionist vote in Catalonia stood at between 40 and 50 per cent. There can be no question that those numbers have since risen. As a British friend who knows Spanish politics well remarked, minutes after the king’s speech, “that’s another ten points for the independentistas”. Yes. To add to the ten or more they added after the police clubbings of last Sunday.

I have a more than academic interest in this unfolding slow-motion disaster. My mother is Spanish, from Madrid. I lived 15 years in Catalonia until I moved to London four years ago, but I have always meant to return and applied for a Spanish passport after the Brexit referendum. I love Spain and so am against Catalan independence but I have never loved Spanish politics, especially the authoritarian strain represented by the people in power today and shared by much of the Madrid establishment. I have never forgotten a conversation I had 15 years ago with a man who remains a pillar of that establishment. “I can’t stand the Catalans,” he exclaimed. “They always want to make a deal. They’ve got no principles, for God’s sake! No principles!”

It is Madrid’s adherence to its blessed principles that has led us into today’s dangerous mess. It also explains what, to the Anglo-Saxon mind, seems to be the inexplicable refusal of Rajoy’s government to try to solve the problem through international mediation, or dialogue of any kind. “Principles” in the Catalan context means the Spanish constitution, which does not allow for a Catalan referendum on sovereignty. One might think that a constitution, being a necessarily fallible human document, would be open to change as circumstances change. Not on the Catalan question; not for Rajoy.

Miguel de Unamuno, a celebrated Spanish writer of the last century, lamented what he saw as a national political spirit contaminated “by the barracks and the sacristy”. My sense has long been that the intransigent habit of thought exhibited by Spain’s political classes is the inheritance of 500 years of Catholic absolutism. Spanish Catholicism was to Christendom generally what Saudi Islam is to the Muslim world today: the most resistant to outside philosophical, political, cultural or scientific influence. I don’t think it is any accident that there is no translation in Spanish, or in Arabic, for the English word “compromise”. The concept of “I cede a little and you cede a little so we both end up winning” is alien to the Spanish political mind.

It is why the Spanish empire lost Cuba in 1898 and before that California and the rest of what is now the western United States. It is the chief reason why, on the Catalan question, the centre-right Popular party government of Rajoy and the Madrid establishment have achieved the opposite of what they claim to want: instead of working to preserve the unity of Spain they alienate the Catalan people and fuel the drive for independence.

Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy, King Felipe VI and Catalan president Carles Puigdemont in a rare moment of unity, observing a minute’s silence for victims of the August terrorist attacksMatthias Oesterle/Alamy

Put simply, they are third-rate politicians. Rule one for the intelligent resolution of a dispute like the Catalan one is to know your enemy: put yourself in their shoes, try to understand why they think the way they do and then try to persuade them to come around to your point of view, or at least to meet you halfway. The Struggle for Catalonia, a new book by the New York Times correspondent in Spain, Raphael Minder, ends on just this note. The peoples of Spain will not be reunited, Minder writes, so long as the political establishment in Madrid makes no effort to “understand the feelings expressed by hundreds of thousands on the streets of Barcelona”.

Catalan nationalist feelings go back at least 300 years. On September 11, 1714, at the end of the Spanish war of succession, Barcelona fell after a long siege to the army of Felipe V, Spain’s first Bourbon king. His namesake might have trodden with a little more tact in his speech this week had he chosen to recall that this glorious defeat, the Catalan Dunkirk, today marks the date of Catalonia’s annual national holiday. It is a commemoration of the suicidal heroism of the city’s defenders but also a reminder of the oppression they suffered under Felipe V. An absolute ruler, he demolished a fifth of the city, closed the Catalan parliament and the universities and banned Catalan as an administrative language.

An absolute ruler of more recent memory, Francisco Franco, fanned the flames of nationalist grievance by carrying out uncannily similar measures after he assumed absolute power in 1939 following the victory of his fascist forces in the Spanish civil war. Apart from the executions by firing squad of leading Catalan politicians and thousands more (Including Barca’s President Josep Suñol), he too suppressed the local language, the chief emblem of Catalan identity. Under Franco’s rule parents were not allowed to give their children Catalan names such as Jordi or Josep. The generalissimo chose to regard Catalan as a dialect, which was as insulting as it was wrong: Catalan is just as much a language in its own right as Spanish, French and Italian.

The suppression of Catalan culture after 1939 under General Franco, which included banning Catalan Christian names, finds an echo today in the disdain of many Spaniards for the region and its people.

A hangover of the Franco era that continues to stir the nationalist pot is the disdain for Catalan among other Spaniards. It is accompanied by a dislike for Catalans generally, whom many choose to regard as snooty and superior when the truth is, I think, that they are merely shy. But nationalism is a sentiment, a simmering resentment towards a neighbour perceived to be abusive. Nationalism is not a plan. Independence is. What we see today is how one has evolved into the other and on a scale never before seen. Many who were once merely heart-sore nationalists are now active campaigners for independence.

The years 2006, 2010 and 2012 mark the progression. In 2006 the pro-independence vote stood at barely 15 per cent of the population. A decision taken that year gave hope that the number would drop: not only the Catalan parliament in Barcelona, but the national parliament in Madrid, voted in favour of a new statute defining Catalonia as a nation and granting it greater autonomy than it had enjoyed since the death of Franco in 1975. This included giving Catalonia a greater degree of judicial independence.

Delays in the implementation of the statute gave time for a Spanish nationalist backlash. In 2010 Rajoy’s Popular Party, then in opposition, succumbed to the impulse that sparked the explosion of Catalan independentismo and has led to the present crisis: seeking votes in the rest of Spain, it campaigned against the Catalan statute and took it to the notoriously politicised constitutional court, where it was overruled. The law trumped politics, the precedent that continues to hinder a solution of the problem today.

In 2012 what was then the centre-right Catalan government nevertheless tried to find an accommodation with Rajoy, who had become prime minister the year before. It sought talks to try to obtain fiscal concessions along the lines of those granted to the Basque country, whose government has a much greater authority over the collection and distribution of tax money. But Rajoy rebuffed them. Add the economic crisis and high unemployment to the outrage among ordinary Catalans at the scornful treatment they felt they had received and the upshot was the biggest protest anyone in Catalonia could remember. On the national holiday of September 11 a million people poured on to the streets of Barcelona.

What they called for was a legally binding independence referendum and the clamour only grew after the British government agreed to precisely such a vote in Scotland in 2014. But Rajoy’s government would not budge. The law was the law. Pragmatism was for him an unintelligible Greek word. It was as if he took his cue from the advice Franco once gave a friendly newspaper editor: “Do as I do, don’t get involved in politics.”

But the Catalans were doing plenty of politics and in 2015 a rag-tag pro-independence coalition led by Carles Puigdemont took power by a slender margin in the Catalan parliament. Whereupon the rhetoric from both sides became more angry and the political climate more hostile.

Rajoy’s government and his supporters in the media have portrayed the mop-topped Puigdemont and his radical comrades as irresponsible and infantile but it has been hard to avoid the conclusion that, if so, the supposedly adult politicians in Madrid have descended to the same level. The education minister stoked the flames by stating the government’s intention to españolizar — Spanishify — Catalan children; the foreign minister did the same when he accused the Catalan government of “an uprising” and “a coup d’état”. Felipe González, a former socialist prime minister, trumped them both in an article in El País in which he compared the independence movement to “the German or Italian adventure” of the 1930s. (Plus, Pablo Casado from the PP party threatening assassination of Puigdemont).

Things could have been so different, so easily, starting with the Popular Party restraining the vindictive impulse that drove it to overrule the autonomy statute through the courts. Even if it had not, the massive street protests two years later provided another opportunity. Had Rajoy possessed an ounce of statesmanship, he could have gone to Barcelona, made a conciliatory speech and offered dialogue with the less militant, more pliable Catalan government that was then in power. Applause would have rung out around the hall and the Puigdemont radicals would probably have been done for.

Had Rajoy an ounce of statesmanship, he could have gone to Barcelona in 2012, made a conciliatory speech and offered dialogue with the less militant Catalan government then in power

The dangerous showdown today between Spanish fanatics and Catalan romantics would never have happened if, along with the change in mood music, the upshot of talks had been the granting of a binding referendum such as the one Scotland was given three years ago. Catalans say of themselves that two emotions vie in their hearts, seny and rauxa: common sense and raging passion. They are by ancient Mediterranean tradition a trading nation. When they are not angry, as they are now, they are the most practical people on earth. A proper referendum held a couple of years ago would have yielded in all likelihood a substantial “no” to independence from Spain and, as happened in Quebec, the subject would have been put to bed for a generation at least.

Instead what we have is the cruel absurdity of the Madrid government acting towards the Catalans like a husband who hates his wife and mistreats her but refuses to let her contemplate leaving him, screaming “She’s mine!”.

What happens now? Puigdemont has said he will make a unilateral declaration of independence but his delay in doing so indicates an entirely realistic fear of more violent reprisals from Madrid, hence his stated desire for EU mediation, so far refused. Such a declaration would signify scarcely more in substance than the outcome of the unilateral “referendum”: it would be more political theatre. Catalonia is not a small Pacific island, sufficient unto itself. It is part of Spain and part of the European Union. A hard, overnight Catexit is simply not possible. Puigdemont is playing a high-risk game.

The Spanish government could see he is playing a game, if it chose to, and react proportionately: watch and wait a while and, acknowledging that the Catalan independence clamour has significant numbers behind it, accede to talks. The wife, in this scenario, could respond yet to some blandishments. Rajoy could do what he should have done five years ago and agree to a binding referendum. In the event of a victory for the “yes” vote, order — at least order of the type now found in Brexit Britain — would be restored. Madrid, having given its legal blessing to the referendum, would have to abide through gritted teeth by the result. In the event of a “no” victory, the problem would be solved.

Fat chance, though, as things stand. More likely is that ominous royal defence of the “constitutional order” by “the legitimate state powers”. Luis de Guindos, the economy minister, showed just how inflexible the Spanish government remains when he said in a television interview on Thursday that Catalan independence was “out of the question” because it was, first, “illegal” and, second, “irrational”: “Catalonia has always been part of Spain”.

A part of me still clings to the sliver of hope I felt before the king’s speech, that maybe the EU will intervene and knock sense into Spanish heads. But it is more likely that they will do so only after the cracking of more Catalan bones, by which time it may be too late. One death at the hands of the king’s police, one martyr for the Catalan cause, and anything could happen. Rajoy calls Puigdemont a traitor but if the conflict descends into widespread violence, and if Catalonia does eventually achieve independence, history may record that the bigger traitor was Rajoy.
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  #320  
Old 12.10.2017, 12:12
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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I'm no lawyer, but surely if the constitution says, strictly no secession possible, there isn't much you can do within the framework of the constitution - except maybe change the constitution, but that would require the approval of the rest of Spain which probably isn't forthcoming.
The constitution is essentially a contract. Changing a contract requires the Ok by all involved parties. Unless it can be demonstrated that one party is oppressed (which isn't the same as "I don't get the others to act on my whim") there is no other way as apparently the constituion and laws don't already provide one. So yes, get the parliament to act and create a way out. I guess it additionally requires the king's Ok, which may or may not be a minor detail (probably not).

Of course this won't happen overnight but without trying that claim is the lazy man's excuse.

Fundamentally speaking Rajoy has no options. Of course he can use discretion with the means used in a given situation (and should think twice about using force) but fundamentally speaking he has only one option:
Rajoy has sworn to uphold and protect (and is bound by) the Spanish constitution and its laws. The council that was mentioned before has clearly established that the way the whole thing has been undertaken is illegal. Thus Rajoy simply has to keep Catalonia in, if necessary even with military force - it's part of his job description if you will.

With that said, "der Ton macht die Musik" and the use of force usually doen't soften peoeples's positions, quite the contrary. But Rajoy doesn't get to chose which tune is played.
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