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  #321  
Old 12.10.2017, 14:56
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Article from John Carlin of The Times & formerly of El Pais (Sacked after being critical of Spanish govt)
All decent from the political point of view. Where this article fundamentally fails (or lacks) is in the economic point: dozens of companies have moved their HQ's out of cataluna in the last few days. The impact of being out of the EU is something critical the secessionists simply underestimated. Yet, the fundamental claim for independence has been a financial one: "Spain steals money from us". I guess every country has a region that contributes more than others to their country's GDP. Is that a good reason for session? I suppose it depends on each countries' situation, but at this point I frankly doubt that Cataluna could be any wealthier without Spain and the EU.

I would also like to have seen this article talking a bit more about the "other half". It does not say much about the very large amount of Catalans that don't want independence (see demonstrations last Sunday) and respecting their opinion.
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  #322  
Old 12.10.2017, 15:09
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

Those banks leaving have to do with the central Madrid government - just as easily others can come in after independence. It’s a scare tactic that will fail in its aim to squash independence.

Economic argument is a weak one as they are better equipped for a more thriving economy than Andorra or Slovenia
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  #323  
Old 12.10.2017, 16:47
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Those banks leaving have to do with the central Madrid government - just as easily others can come in after independence. It’s a scare tactic that will fail in its aim to squash independence.

Economic argument is a weak one as they are better equipped for a more thriving economy than Andorra or Slovenia
Andorra is a tax heaven without a clear future after it and Slovenia is in EU; so which one Catalonia will be? I don't think they will be part of EU after independence.

Last edited by Dark Blue; 12.10.2017 at 17:26. Reason: grammer
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  #324  
Old 12.10.2017, 17:24
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Those banks leaving have to do with the central Madrid government - just as easily others can come in after independence. It’s a scare tactic that will fail in its aim to squash independence.

Economic argument is a weak one as they are better equipped for a more thriving economy than Andorra or Slovenia
Is not only banks, by the way. I really want to believe that is true what you are saying, as I have family in Cataluna that would/will suffer. But you know what you are saying is, to be polite, naive. Sadly, Money fears Uncertainty. And for the unlikely scenario of an independent Cataluna, there are much more open questions than answers.
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  #325  
Old 12.10.2017, 18:01
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Is not only banks, by the way. I really want to believe that is true what you are saying, as I have family in Cataluna that would/will suffer. But you know what you are saying is, to be polite, naive. Sadly, Money fears Uncertainty. And for the unlikely scenario of an independent Cataluna, there are much more open questions than answers.
The banks that are leaving are bans such as Sabadell and Caixa. Even their names say it. These are banks whose geographical and historical home is in Catalonia. That is also where most of their business is and customers are. Are they really going to serve their home market from a base in Madrid? Will that even be legally and practically possible? And even if it, will customers vote with their feet and close their accounts.

Methinks these banks are just throwing threats around.

But where I see a real threat is that in the absence of trade deals, an independent Catalönia would be forced to pay more for imports and would have great trouble exporting. This will do far greater damage than a coupd of banks moving their HQ around.

Last edited by amogles; 12.10.2017 at 18:13.
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  #326  
Old 12.10.2017, 18:10
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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The constitution is essentially a contract. Changing a contract requires the Ok by all involved parties. Unless it can be demonstrated that one party is oppressed (which isn't the same as "I don't get the others to act on my whim") there is no other way as apparently the constituion and laws don't already provide one. So yes, get the parliament to act and create a way out. I guess it additionally requires the king's Ok, which may or may not be a minor detail (probably not).

Of course this won't happen overnight but without trying that claim is the lazy man's excuse.
A constitution isn't really the same as a regular contract. It was approved 40 years ago, which is before more then half of people alive today in Spain were even born. If a constitution is worded in such a way as to make changes extremely difficult, it risks becming a cumbersome fossil.

The Catalonians have been asking for independence for several decades now. Only every time they asked for negotiations the door was slammed in their face. I think they had no choice but to escalate things a little to force the government to take notice. To turn around now and say "so you want independence, couldn't you simply have said so?" is a bit misplaced, is it not?
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  #327  
Old 12.10.2017, 18:27
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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[FONT=&quot]Article from John Carlin of The Times & formerly of El Pais (Sacked after being critical of Spanish govt
Interesting and enlightening article that i think sums up the situation well.

I beg to differ on one point though.

I don't think the rest of Spain looks down on or disrespects Catalonia. That's not an impression I ever had in any of the conversations I had with different people in Spain. Poitive attributes i've picked up include the Catalans being hard working, industrious, reliable, clean. Negative attributes include them working too much, taking stuff too seriously and their football team being too good so others don't get a chance.
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  #328  
Old 12.10.2017, 19:04
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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All decent from the political point of view. Where this article fundamentally fails (or lacks) is in the economic point: dozens of companies have moved their HQ's out of cataluna in the last few days. The impact of being out of the EU is something critical the secessionists simply underestimated. Yet, the fundamental claim for independence has been a financial one: "Spain steals money from us". I guess every country has a region that contributes more than others to their country's GDP. Is that a good reason for session? I suppose it depends on each countries' situation, but at this point I frankly doubt that Cataluna could be any wealthier without Spain and the EU.

I would also like to have seen this article talking a bit more about the "other half". It does not say much about the very large amount of Catalans that don't want independence (see demonstrations last Sunday) and respecting their opinion.
Well, maybe it is not as bad as the articles he writes about football, but it still constains quite a few inaccuracies:
- Catalan nationalist movements start around 1900, not 300 years ago.
- The PP brought the Catalan Estatut to the Constitutional Court in July 2006; 2010 is when the Court gave their ruling. By the way, the "Defensor del Pueblo", a socialist from the Basque Country at the time, also questioned over 100 articles, and 5 regions (Murcia, Baleares, Valencia, Aragón and Rioja) complained about a minor number of articles too. In the end, the Constitutional Court only declared inconstitutional 14 out of more than 200 articles in it.
- In 2015 Puigdemont was not leading anything. Mas was leading the coalition, but the CUP refused to make him president due to the social cuts in 2012. Probably knowing that the the new president would have to break the law and would be banned from office for it, they chose someone who had no political career or ambitions (Puigdemont).

And there are surely more inaccuracies if you go through it in detail.

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The banks that are leaving are bans such as Sabadell and Caixa. Even their names say it. These are banks whose geographical and historical home is in Catalonia. That is also where most of their business is and customers are. Are they really going to serve their home market from a base in Madrid? Will that even be legally and practically possible? And even if it, will customers vote with their feet and close their accounts.

Methinks these banks are just throwing threats around.

But where I see a real threat is that in the absence of trade deals, an independent Catalönia would be forced to pay more for imports and would have great trouble exporting. This will do far greater damage than a coupd of banks moving their HQ around.
Those banks are clearly Catalan in origin and history, but Catalonia accounts for some 25% of their business only; they have many more customers and deposits in the rest of Spain. Anyway, banks simply don't want to find themselves in a limbo out of UE, they cannot afford that. If Catalonia became independent they would open a subsidiary in Catalonia, for sure, but their core business would remain in the EU.
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  #329  
Old 13.10.2017, 09:36
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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The Catalonians have been asking for independence for several decades now. Only every time they asked for negotiations the door was slammed in their face. I think they had no choice but to escalate things a little to force the government to take notice. To turn around now and say "so you want independence, couldn't you simply have said so?" is a bit misplaced, is it not?
Are you intentionally leaving out 2006?
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  #330  
Old 13.10.2017, 17:23
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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When one has a bias it doesn't matter such a detail, I guess.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catala...ferendum,_2006


Things change though, it's been 11 years since then. Maybe some people are not happy anymore with the status quo and want a change.
A lot of people see more autonomy as an intermediate step to independence. Not an alternative to it.

Remember the SNP backed devolution for Scotland.
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  #331  
Old 13.10.2017, 17:55
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

In fact, Rajoy asked Puigdemont to clarify what he actually said and what the Catalan gov't had actually done, so that Spain/Madrid could take appropriate action. Rajoy did not ask what the Catalans want, nor does he care at this point.

I live outside of Barcelona now and have been following this game of chicken for quite a while now. I would say that it is likely that Puigdemont and several others will be arrested soon and Article 155 (which would allow Madrid to dissolve the Catalan govt and take over, among other things) may be invoked. It doesn't look too good for the Secessionist part of the Catalan gov't and whatever unity they had in Puigdemont's govt is fracturing.

I don't really have a horse in this race and I am not able to vote as a foreign resident. But both sides are politically/morally bankrupt on so many issues.

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Rajoy has told the Catalan government they must make a clear statement of what they actually want.

As others have pointed out, seceessionism is illegal by the constitution.

So I wonder how they're going to get out of that one.

Last edited by My2pups; 13.10.2017 at 18:46.
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  #332  
Old 13.10.2017, 18:18
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Andorra is a tax heaven without a clear future after it and Slovenia is in EU; so which one Catalonia will be? I don't think they will be part of EU after independence.
A new Swiss canton!

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  #333  
Old 13.10.2017, 21:45
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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I don't see how Catalonia's independence would be possible though, theoretically and practically.
If a place like Kosovo could do it, why not a more economically viable region?

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  #334  
Old 13.10.2017, 21:56
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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If a place like Kosovo could do it, why not a more economically viable region?

Tom
Because Kosovo's independence suited the schemes of NATO and the EU, whereas Catalonia's doesn't.
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  #335  
Old 14.10.2017, 01:58
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Because Kosovo was a part of some Balkan rednecks' former country, and Catalonia ain't.

Can imagine bored Americans and old EU officials amusing themselves with those buggers and their hilarious nationalism.
It's always fun as long it's not your problem
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Old 14.10.2017, 10:50
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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It's always fun as long it's not your problem
Indeed. But could Kosovo case be relevant in this case, I don't know (from many POVs). I mean it's obvious that Catalonia can survive without Spain, but Spain is a monarchy and even a symbolic attachment of Catalonia won't be possible after independence. Once this monarchy goes down, then all of them (in Europe) will follow, one after another, and sooner or later. Interesting times ahead.
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  #337  
Old 14.10.2017, 10:53
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

Daily business as usual in Barcelona. I’m going to the city today and will already be leaving tomorrow. Such nice holidays and no disruptions.
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  #338  
Old 14.10.2017, 11:02
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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Jean-Claude Juncker. He's always struck me as a level-headed, fair-minded kind of chap.
EU Spain: Juncker does not want Catalonian independence

"Mr Juncker, speaking at a students forum in Luxembourg, warned it could result in a region too complicated for the European Union (EU) to govern...

"If we allow, but it's not our business, that Catalonia becomes independent, others will do the same and I wouldn't like that," he said.
"I wouldn't like a European Union in 15 years that consists of some 90 states.""


And still there are people that think the EU as it is is a good thing.
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Old 14.10.2017, 12:22
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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EU Spain: Juncker does not want Catalonian independence

"Mr Juncker, speaking at a students forum in Luxembourg, warned it could result in a region too complicated for the European Union (EU) to govern...

"If we allow, but it's not our business, that Catalonia becomes independent, others will do the same and I wouldn't like that," he said.
"I wouldn't like a European Union in 15 years that consists of some 90 states.""


And still there are people that think the EU as it is is a good thing.
It's interesting to observe various reactions to this and how people interpret them. For instance, one comment to that article

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278. Posted by realisticlogic on
5 minutes ago
Juncker has said he does not back Catalan independence, fearing others may follow the same path.

At last he admits that the EU is crumbling & the UK is not the only nation looking to escape.
The last countries to leave will be Germany,France, and that little place ...whats it called.......oh yeah....Luxembourg .
Some people appear to be convinced that Catalonia wants independence from EU and EU won't let it go, not from Spain, which actually is the case.
And then there's the satisfaction that not only UK wanted to escape from EU. I mean, really? With this kind of arguments EU will survive for a long, long time. There are other problems that need to be discussed.
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Old 14.10.2017, 13:31
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Re: Catalan independence referendum vote

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It's interesting to observe various reactions to this and how people interpret them. For instance, one comment to that article



Some people appear to be convinced that Catalonia wants independence from EU and EU won't let it go, not from Spain, which actually is the case.
And then there's the satisfaction that not only UK wanted to escape from EU. I mean, really? With this kind of arguments EU will survive for a long, long time. There are other problems that need to be discussed.
People on both sides are living in cloud cuckoo land. The EU does not support independence movements (unless reasons). Most seekers of independence want their new little countries to stay in the EU. This square cannot be triangled.

What still beggars belief, though, is that anyone - unionist or secessionist alike - thinks the EU has their back. The EU doesn't care about our shitty countries, whether they're big, ugly island nations or cute little new nations. The EU only cares about the EU.

I don't know how Mr Juncker could make it any clearer. Perhaps get some t-shirts and balloons printed up... I dunno.
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