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  #21  
Old 03.03.2018, 02:32
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

Here is South Africa's new president Cyril Ramaphosa delivering his first SONA (State of the Nation Address), on 16 February 2018.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VqlUOctT8c

Here is the transcript of this address: http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/spee...yril-ramaphosa
Extract, with regard to agriculture and land:
"Agriculture presents one of the greatest opportunities to significantly grow our economy and create jobs.

Agriculture made the largest contribution, by a significant margin, to the improved growth of our economy in the second and third quarters of 2017.

This year, we will take decisive action to realise the enormous economic potential of agriculture.

We will accelerate our land redistribution programme not only to redress a grave historical injustice, but also to bring more producers into the agricultural sector and to make more land available for cultivation.

We will pursue a comprehensive approach that makes effective use of all the mechanisms at our disposal.

Guided by the resolutions of the 54th National Conference of the governing party, this approach will include the expropriation of land without compensation.

We are determined that expropriation without compensation should be implemented in a way that increases agricultural production, improves food security and ensure that the land is returned to those from whom it was taken under colonialism and apartheid.

Government will undertake a process of consultation to determine the modalities of the implementation of this resolution.

We make a special call to financial institutions to be our partners in mobilising resources to accelerate the land redistribution programme as increased investment will be needed in this sector."



After the ensuing debate about, amongst other things, the issue of land, this was Ramaphosa's Reply of 20 February 2018:
http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/spee...nation-address

Extract, with regard to land:
"The expropriation of land without compensation is envisaged as one of the measures that we will use to accelerate the redistribution of land to black South Africans.

We will need to determine, collectively, how we can implement this measure in a way that promotes agricultural production, improves food security, advances rural development, reduces poverty and strengthens our economy.

For it to serve this purpose, we will need to locate this measure within a broad and comprehensive land redistribution and agricultural development programme.

This is a profound responsibility that has been given to our generation.

We owe it to our ancestors and to our children to ensure that we fulfil it.

In dealing with this complex matter, we will not make the mistakes that others have made.

We will not allow smash and grab interventions.

We will handle this matter in the same way we have handled all difficult issues our country has had to handle.

We will always seek to do what is in the interests of our people.

This includes, Honourable Buthelezi, how we will handle the Ingonyama Trust issue.

No-one is saying that land must be taken away from our people.

Rather it is how can we make sure that our people have equitable access to land and security of tenure.

We must see this process of accelerated land redistribution as an opportunity and not as a threat.

We must see it as an opportunity to free all of us from the bitterness and pain of the past."

Last edited by doropfiz; 03.03.2018 at 02:49.
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  #22  
Old 04.03.2018, 15:13
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

Some time ago there was this thread on someone who had something stolen from him/her. The goods were sold forward, and the question arose whether the buyer (or someone further down the line) could ever be legal owner and possessor, or not.

Under British law the answer is No, under Swiss law the answer is Yes. The clear majority on here (of those who posted) posted the opinion that the Swiss approach is ridiculous and the British approach is just.

Conquest is robbery of the gravest kind. Consequentially the British under British law (and perhaps the Boeres under consistent Dutch law, dunno) never were and never will be the rightful owners of the land. This is now getting corrected, justice is about to be done according to those who posted that the answer above is No.

Be careful what you wish for. Be very careful.

Last edited by Urs Max; 04.03.2018 at 15:24.
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Old 04.03.2018, 17:29
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Conquest is robbery of the gravest kind. Consequentially the British under British law (and perhaps the Boeres under consistent Dutch law, dunno) never were and never will be the rightful owners of the land. This is now getting corrected, justice is about to be done according to those who posted that the answer above is No.
Just for your info:

Dutch law sort of equals Swiss law.

When a good is gained under good faith it can not just be taken away and be given to the original owner. For example if I pay a normal price for a second handed stolen bike in a bike store so there is no reason for me to doubt the legality of the seller to be allowed to commit the transaction I gain lawful possession of the bike and the bike will be mine.

Also there is a timeframe during which an item can be claimed regardless of how the current owner got it. (Even valid for if the current owner is the thief itself), So even if I stole the bike myself and had if for (just an example) 30 years it is legally mine.

As for grounds, If I start using your garden and put a fence around it and use it for 20 years and you do not reclaim it as being yours it will legally be my garden.

Given the time they had these farms and the grounds these are rightfully theirs under Dutch laws. And if it was illegal under South-African law they did not have to make new laws to retrieve possession but could just use current laws to do such.
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Old 05.03.2018, 01:12
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Given the time they had these farms and the grounds these are rightfully theirs under Dutch laws. And if it was illegal under South-African law they did not have to make new laws to retrieve possession but could just use current laws to do such.
I think there's no right or wrong here. Whichever way one swings it's a completely arbitrary decision, each approach has its own pros, cons, and in certain cases injustices. The echo in that other thread however was different, like, the UK way makes sense and the Swiss' doesn't.

I'm just holding up a virtual mirror.
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  #25  
Old 05.03.2018, 08:31
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Even in Germany, it often turned out to be the best to return Eastern German farms to their pre-WW2 owners, after the re-unification.
The experience in Zimbabwe was that turning over the farms to local people destroyed the farms as highly productive units and consequently destroyed the economy.

It was different in Germany as their pre-WW2 owners were farmers.
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Old 05.03.2018, 08:43
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

Interesting article in News24. And goes to the route of the issue.

https://www.news24.com/Columnists/Gu...berty-20180305
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Old 05.03.2018, 09:12
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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I think there's no right or wrong here. Whichever way one swings it's a completely arbitrary decision, each approach has its own pros, cons, and in certain cases injustices. The echo in that other thread however was different, like, the UK way makes sense and the Swiss' doesn't.

I'm just holding up a virtual mirror.
Of course you are correct, in the end it is a decision for the local Govt.

The sad historical fact is that removing farmers and replacing them with local people is disastrous,
We all know about Zimbabwe or let us look at Soviet Union!
Stalin resorted to mass murder and wholesale deportation of farmers to Siberia in order to force the peasants into collectives.
The immediate effects were reduced grain output and almost halved livestock numbers. In 1932–1933, an estimated 11 million people, 3–7 million in Ukraine alone, died from famine and remember these peasants had basic knowledge of farming.
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Old 05.03.2018, 10:13
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Even in Germany, it often turned out to be the best to return Eastern German farms to their pre-WW2 owners, after the re-unification.
Thats not the plan here. At all. The plan is to promise the poor masses to get rich by taking property and redistribute it.

1. In Zimbabwe it failed because farming isn't trivial. You cannot just go and give some slum guy a shovel, a patch and expect him to live successfully on his own crops. It takes a bit more education than that.

2. Farms are a highly political topic in SA. The ones producing food and grapes for export products still got water at the time the poor population suffered. If I was one of the people told to now shower anymore to save water but at the same time see how the little water left is distributed to some grape patches would I be very open to this sort of populism.
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Old 05.03.2018, 10:47
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Thats not the plan here. At all. The plan is to promise the poor masses to get rich by taking property and redistribute it.

1. In Zimbabwe it failed because farming isn't trivial. You cannot just go and give some slum guy a shovel, a patch and expect him to live successfully on his own crops. It takes a bit more education than that.

2. Farms are a highly political topic in SA. The ones producing food and grapes for export products still got water at the time the poor population suffered. If I was one of the people told to now shower anymore to save water but at the same time see how the little water left is distributed to some grape patches would I be very open to this sort of populism.
"The plan is to promise the poor masses to get rich by taking property and redistribute it." But, of course that is an impossible promise. You spread the property over 40 million people and they will not get rich, in fact, each of them will get very little.
But owning property does not make you rich, selling property makes you rich and who will buy property when the Govt. seizes property without compensation?

Then, of course, you have the problem of do you share the property over all the black people or just to the Ethnic groups who were there in 1652 when the first white men arrived?
Many black people are descendants of slaves who were brought in from other parts of Africa or or descendants of immigrants who were escaping tribal conflicts or simply hoped to improve their lives so are they equally deserving of a share of the property or not?

As an example, there are 144 thousand square Km farm land in South Africa. Share that out between 40 million people and they get 360 sq metres each!

Top price for first class farmland in SA is 5 Rand per sqm, say CHF 150 for each person. That is assuming they could sell the plots?
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Old 05.03.2018, 12:09
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

Whatever happens, I hope they don't stop making wine.
Hm, it might be a good idea to stock up, actually
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  #31  
Old 05.03.2018, 12:54
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

Marton makes a good point, so what will likely happen is like BEE, the land will go to the already rich and politically connected allies of CR and the ANC.

The poor blacks will see nothing, and under the new owner they will likely be treated worse than they were under the white farmer.
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  #32  
Old 05.03.2018, 14:42
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Top price for first class farmland in SA is 5 Rand per sqm, say CHF 150 for each person. That is assuming they could sell the plots?
I did not say it makes any sense, I just don't agree that the situation is in any way comparable to the - at times successful - landownership changes in Eastern Germany. It's not about giving anything back to anyone. Its about redistribution of wealth. Done with a big stick... and that has never worked. Neither in Africa or elsewhere...
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Old 05.03.2018, 15:01
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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As for grounds, If I start using your garden and put a fence around it and use it for 20 years and you do not reclaim it as being yours it will legally be my garden.
Much the same exists in British law. It's called adverse possession. Goes back to Roman Law.

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Given the time they had these farms and the grounds these are rightfully theirs under Dutch laws. And if it was illegal under South-African law they did not have to make new laws to retrieve possession but could just use current laws to do such.
And even if you do accept there was an illegal possession at some point in the past, how are you going to identify the heirs of the exact people it belonged to before. And what about when they seized it from some other people before that?
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Old 05.03.2018, 15:04
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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And even if you do accept there was an illegal possession at some point in the past, how are you going to identify the heirs of the exact people it belonged to before. And what about when they seized it from some other people before that?
That will be the most simple part of the plan, you just assume that your friends and your family or those willing to do a "taxfree donation" have the most right to those grounds.
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Old 05.03.2018, 15:12
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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As an example, there are 144 thousand square Km farm land in South Africa. Share that out between 40 million people and they get 360 sq metres each!
ahem 3600
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Old 05.03.2018, 15:20
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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2. Farms are a highly political topic in SA. The ones producing food and grapes for export products still got water at the time the poor population suffered. If I was one of the people told to now shower anymore to save water but at the same time see how the little water left is distributed to some grape patches would I be very open to this sort of populism.
I don't see how re-possession is going to change that.

The new owners will still need to water their grapes. So the guy in the city will still have to do without.

That is, unless you want to stop making grapes and farm cacti instead, which isn't really in the country's interest.

If you want water, it might make more sense to go after the guys in the cities with the private swimming pools.
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Old 05.03.2018, 20:14
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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The sad historical fact is that removing farmers and replacing them with local people is disastrous,
We all know about Zimbabwe or let us look at Soviet Union!
Stalin resorted to mass murder and wholesale deportation of farmers to Siberia in order to force the peasants into collectives.
Though mass deporations and disruption by expropriation certainly didn't help, the main reason behind communism's shortfalls weren't necessarily the confiscation of the land. It seems more likely that centralisation of planning and the absence of rewards was the main problem. There's a reason why the US saw the USSR as the main competitor and thought they were falling behind after WW2.

Consider China as a counter-example:
Nobody can deny its success yet AFAIK you can't own land, you can only lease. Instead of private people the state pockets the increased value, reportedly lease payments are the main source of income for the government. The main thing that changed some 30 years ago was reduced central planning, essentially replaced by a capitalist-like reward system.

So if SA leaves incentives in place, avoids disruptions, smoothens the transition and gives people and the economy time to adjust, this may turn out completely different than Zimbabwe. But I'd agree, the chances for that to happen appear slim.
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I don't see how re-possession is going to change that.

The new owners will still need to water their grapes. So the guy in the city will still have to do without.
If you own the grapes and are forced to chose between watering them or taking a shower, you're much more likely to accept stinking for an additional day.
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Old 05.03.2018, 21:41
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

The first hand news that I have received from my friends from two different sources are that the land expropriation without compensation most likely won’t happen Zimbabwean style, if anything will happen at all. However people live under uncertainty and feel nervous that the newly formed government considers such amendment to the constitution. No panic though. Let’s wait until then and see what really the next steps in land reform are going to be.
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Old 05.03.2018, 22:06
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Though mass deporations and disruption by expropriation certainly didn't help, the main reason behind communism's shortfalls weren't necessarily the confiscation of the land. It seems more likely that centralisation of planning and the absence of rewards was the main problem. There's a reason why the US saw the USSR as the main competitor and thought they were falling behind after WW2.

Consider China as a counter-example:
Nobody can deny its success yet AFAIK you can't own land, you can only lease. Instead of private people the state pockets the increased value, reportedly lease payments are the main source of income for the government. The main thing that changed some 30 years ago was reduced central planning, essentially replaced by a capitalist-like reward system.

So if SA leaves incentives in place, avoids disruptions, smoothens the transition and gives people and the economy time to adjust, this may turn out completely different than Zimbabwe. But I'd agree, the chances for that to happen appear slim.

If you own the grapes and are forced to chose between watering them or taking a shower, you're much more likely to accept stinking for an additional day.
Basic issue is economic!
Poor people cannot be farmers, you need substantial funds to buy fertilisers, crop protection products, seeds, animal feed, fuel for farm vehicles and even to pay for the water before you can bring in your crops and earn money.
Who is going to lend the poor people the necessary when there is a substantial risk of crop failure and losing everything?
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Old 06.03.2018, 10:15
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Basic issue is economic!
Poor people cannot be farmers, you need substantial funds to buy fertilisers, crop protection products, seeds, animal feed, fuel for farm vehicles and even to pay for the water before you can bring in your crops and earn money.
Who is going to lend the poor people the necessary when there is a substantial risk of crop failure and losing everything?
Where are the goalposts? Can you help me put them back?
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