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  #41  
Old 06.03.2018, 10:27
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Basic issue is economic!
Poor people cannot be farmers, you need substantial funds to buy fertilisers, crop protection products, seeds, animal feed, fuel for farm vehicles and even to pay for the water before you can bring in your crops and earn money.
Who is going to lend the poor people the necessary when there is a substantial risk of crop failure and losing everything?
In Zimbabwe the new "farmers" solved this by only using a small piece of the farm to grow just enough for themselves.
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  #42  
Old 06.03.2018, 11:11
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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In Zimbabwe the new "farmers" solved this by only using a small piece of the farm to grow just enough for themselves.
Exactly and destroying the Zimbabwe economy in the process.
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  #43  
Old 06.03.2018, 12:00
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Consider China as a counter-example:
Nobody can deny its success yet AFAIK you can't own land, you can only lease. Instead of private people the state pockets the increased value, reportedly lease payments are the main source of income for the government. The main thing that changed some 30 years ago was reduced central planning, essentially replaced by a capitalist-like reward system.
China is capitalist in all but name.

If you check out the real estate listings of the richer suburbs of Shanghai, the houses there are being sold for mouth-watering prices. Not quite Swiss level, but definitely French or German level. And the fact that technically they aren't selling the actual property but just the perpetual, sellable and inheritable lease rights on it is a legal technicality.

A lot of people in China have got very rich by "owning" the right real estate.

If the government would try to dis-posess them, they would have a serious revolt on their hands.

But they wouldn't even dream of it because most of the top brass in the party "own* properties in these areas too.

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If you own the grapes and are forced to chose between watering them or taking a shower, you're much more likely to accept stinking for an additional day.
That only works if you are actually actively involved with the grapes. In other words, everybody gets an actual piece of farmland and then works it. But I don't think that is what is being pursied, or what would really work.
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  #44  
Old 06.03.2018, 13:00
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

I think there is also an important symbolic element here.

Land ownership is often eotional, and thus quickly becomes symbolic.

Among townies, there is often also a false perspective that farming is easy.

And with that practical considerations are thrown out of the window.
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  #45  
Old 06.03.2018, 13:24
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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I think there is also an important symbolic element here.

Land ownership is often eotional, and thus quickly becomes symbolic.

Among townies & politicians, there is often also a false perspective that farming is easy.

And with that practical considerations are thrown out of the window.
ftfy
Indeed you are correct; they just make difficult situations more difficult.
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  #46  
Old 07.03.2018, 01:10
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

This article, from 6th March 2018, seems to set out the main points which are, or are not, to be discussed.
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opin.../#.Wp8tW0xFyzw
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  #47  
Old 07.03.2018, 02:17
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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China is capitalist in all but name.

If you check out the real estate listings of the richer suburbs of Shanghai, the houses there are being sold for mouth-watering prices. Not quite Swiss level, but definitely French or German level. And the fact that technically they aren't selling the actual property but just the perpetual, sellable and inheritable lease rights on it is a legal technicality.
While you are of course free to show that land in China is nowadays owned rather than leased, which you won't be able to do btw, it has nothing to do with the topic at hand in the first place.

The actual topic at hand is the possibiltiy of economic development (and worldwide success) under a regime that forbids or severely limits private land ownership. This is exactly the situation China was in 40 years ago when its ascent to worldwide top place was launched. Incidentally it's still the retime in place today.

Obviously lack of private land ownership didn't prevent China's ascent. The only logical conclusion is that, at least under certain conditions, it's not a requirement at all. Actually it may be completely irrelevant - see "incentives" in my post above.
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That only works if you are actually actively involved with the grapes. In other words, everybody gets an actual piece of farmland and then works it. But I don't think that is what is being pursied, or what would really work.
To make it short, you're assuming. Opinion, not fact.
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  #48  
Old 07.03.2018, 09:20
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Though mass deporations and disruption by expropriation certainly didn't help, the main reason behind communism's shortfalls weren't necessarily the confiscation of the land. It seems more likely that centralisation of planning and the absence of rewards was the main problem. There's a reason why the US saw the USSR as the main competitor and thought they were falling behind after WW2.

Consider China as a counter-example:
Nobody can deny its success yet AFAIK you can't own land, you can only lease. Instead of private people the state pockets the increased value, reportedly lease payments are the main source of income for the government. The main thing that changed some 30 years ago was reduced central planning, essentially replaced by a capitalist-like reward system.
China:
Forced collectivization under the so called great leap forward resulted in the deadliest famine of the mankind (23-55mln people perished).
Only relaxing the disastrous politics and allowing some individual farming helped.
You may call it a "success" if you insist.

BTW: land ownership may not matter for the production yields if it is incentivized by market economy, but it may matter for the income (in)equality. Think about middle class Swiss farmers vs large agriculture corporations in US employing working poors.
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  #49  
Old 07.03.2018, 12:23
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Only relaxing the disastrous politics and allowing some individual farming helped.
Therefore expropriation of the land wasn't among the main reasons that caused the famine. Centralized plannign and poor farming techniques were, obviously they're distinct from expropriation.

Thank you for making my case.
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Old 07.03.2018, 12:45
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Therefore expropriation of the land wasn't among the main reasons that caused the famine. Centralized plannign and poor farming techniques were, obviously they're distinct from expropriation.

Thank you for making my case.
If you want to be fundamental about it, all property is illusion.

And that illusion of property is strengthened by the government putting in place policies and tools that safeguard our rights to that illusion.

Everything, if you go far enough back in time, was seized from somebody else, be it in war, or a government expropriation, or something else.

But this illusion works because people protect what they think they own and take care of it, invest in it, etc. Communism showed us how, when people think it's not theirs, it belongs to the state, they reduce their willingness to make personal sacrifices for it.

These incentives can be compensated by other methods. For example in many jobs we get payed a bonus if we fulfill or exceed certain goals.

So if you want to remove ownership of the land, but still want those same experts to keep on farming it at the same high standard, you're going to have to create some other incentive to encourage them , firstly to stay put and keep on doing the work, and secondly, do the work to the same high standard as before.

There certainly are ways of creating that incentive. But is that more efficient than leaving them the illusion that they actually own the land?
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Old 07.03.2018, 15:30
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Therefore expropriation of the land wasn't among the main reasons that caused the famine. Centralized plannign and poor farming techniques were, obviously they're distinct from expropriation.

Thank you for making my case.
Where was expropriation succesful ?
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Old 07.03.2018, 22:51
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Where was expropriation succesful ?
in parts of post feudal Europe where land "reforms" created individual farmers / owners and forced large owners to sell some of their land to their serfs.
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Old 07.03.2018, 22:55
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Where was expropriation succesful ?
The claim is that expropriation must lead to grave disruptions, and Zimbabwe-like consequences in SA.
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  #54  
Old 07.03.2018, 23:05
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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So if you want to remove ownership of the land, but still want those same experts to keep on farming it at the same high standard, you're going to have to create some other incentive to encourage them , firstly to stay put and keep on doing the work, and secondly, do the work to the same high standard as before.
To that I can only quote myself, see #38:
"So if SA leaves incentives in place, avoids disruptions, smoothens the transition and gives people and the economy time to adjust, this may turn out completely different than Zimbabwe. But I'd agree, the chances for that to happen appear slim."

Thank you for also making my case.
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Old 08.03.2018, 08:46
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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The claim is that expropriation must lead to grave disruptions, and Zimbabwe-like consequences in SA.
ok - exproritation is very likely to lead to grave disruptions, but not necessarily.

And your claim is ?
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Old 08.03.2018, 09:30
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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The claim is that expropriation must lead to grave disruptions, and Zimbabwe-like consequences in SA.
In every country that carried out a major expropriation of farm land there quickly followed a major food shortage even famine with consequent deaths.
Soviet Union 1932 - 33
China 1958 -62
Cambodia 1975 - 79
Zimbabwe

I am sure SA will be different

"he who ignores history is doomed to repeat it"
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Old 08.03.2018, 09:53
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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To that I can only quote myself, see #38:
"So if SA leaves incentives in place, avoids disruptions, smoothens the transition and gives people and the economy time to adjust, this may turn out completely different than Zimbabwe. But I'd agree, the chances for that to happen appear slim."

Thank you for also making my case.
The case I was trying to make is that ownership is the cheapest form of incentive.

Ownership is an emotional thing. If you think you own the land you do all sorts of things for it, including ruining your health. So from the government's perspective that illusion of ownership they have given you is a good investment.

If they were to seek to pay out the monetary equivelent of that, it would cost them much more.

Not to ignore the fact that bonus objectives always invite for manipulation. We know this from the bankers etc. Make one KPI bonus-relevant and the others not and sooner or later you will see crafty was of leveraging that one KPI at the cost of everything else.

Ownership works. This is empirically proven. Other stuff maybe works. To try it out would be a huge experiment. Nothing against experiments mind you, but the cautious thing with experiments is to try with a handful of farms and observe. Not to wager the future of an entire country on a whim.
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Old 08.03.2018, 13:20
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

Sometimes it is not just ownership, but other factors as well, e.g. large scale farms can afford harvesters and so on. A smaller ones would need to organize in sort of cooperatives to pool the machines.
Same about access to credit, enough leverage to sell to the middlemen at a fair price (so that the middlemen and further processing doesn't cream off all the profit). All these structures are now in place relatively large farms.

In SA the unemployment is about 26%. I think to some extent it might be as underdeveloped country as a former communist countries; there the individual small plots of land served an important role in supplanting families food security and as a small income source. Basically families would do subsistence farming and also any other other (manufacturing, office or service job if available).

So a land redistribution could help more people to live in the mode subsistence farming until the country develops more so that those on a salary would no longer need to supplant their income with food from a subsistence farming. And, BTW, individual farmers are probably much better at creating healthy communities than unattached migrant workers.
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Old 08.03.2018, 13:27
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

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Sometimes it is not just ownership, but other factors as well, e.g. large scale farms can afford harvesters and so on. A smaller ones would need to organize in sort of cooperatives to pool the machines.
Same about access to credit, enough leverage to sell to the middlemen at a fair price (so that the middlemen and further processing doesn't cream off all the profit). All these structures are now in place relatively large farms.

In SA the unemployment is about 26%. I think to some extent it might be as underdeveloped country as a former communist countries; there the individual small plots of land served an important role in supplanting families food security and as a small income source. Basically families would do subsistence farming and also any other other (manufacturing, office or service job if available).

So a land redistribution could help more people to live in the mode subsistence farming until the country develops more so that those on a salary would no longer need to supplant their income with food from a subsistence farming. And, BTW, individual farmers are probably much better at creating healthy communities than unattached migrant workers.
If you split large farms into small plots of subsistence farmers then overall the quantity of food produced is much reduced with consequent impacts on the economy and leading to malnutrition and even famine. Many people have become urbanised and no longer have any hands on experience of subsistence farming.
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Old 08.03.2018, 13:36
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Re: Is S. Africa planning to follow Zimbabwe and destroy its economy?

Nothing that hasn't been tried, and failed, before.

Gracchi reforms
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