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View Poll Results: Does he have a good chance?
Yes he can 43 70.49%
No way Jose 18 29.51%
Voters: 61. You may not vote on this poll

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  #121  
Old 01.03.2020, 21:20
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Re: Will Trump get reelected

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State boundaries don't change. Congressional district lines change. Those changes do not impact the Electoral College votes, except in Nebraska and Maine, where the EC votes are allocated based on the congressional district votes and not winner-takes-all.

The party that is in power in the state when a census is done is the party that gets to draw the lines. It's a deliberately political process, and for the most part it's done legally.

It's more noticeable lately due to the polarization of the country, and because Republicans have controlled more state houses/senates in census years recently.
Not so black and white, some state boundaries move but mostly small changes.

In 2000, surveyors had to resurvey the South Carolina-Georgia border after it was discovered the Savannah River, which officially serves as the boundary, had meandered about a half-mile away from its 18th-century path.

Just north of there, North and South Carolina are currently working together to re-monument their shared border. "The boundary was first surveyed between 1735 and 1815," said Gary Thompson, chief surveyor at the North Carolina Geodetic Survey. "Originally, a few stones were placed at endpoints, but most of the markers were trees. The maintenance of the line wasn't updated, so over time that evidence of the boundary has faded away.

For nearly five years, Georgia and Tennessee have been sparring over the location of their shared border.

August 3, 1950 Kansas and Missouri exchanged small portions of land along the Missouri River.

August 25, 1961 About 20 acres of land was transferred from Minnesota to North Dakota

January 14, 1964 The Chamizal, a tract of land between El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, was divided between the United States and Mexico.
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  #122  
Old 01.03.2020, 21:31
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Re: Will Trump get reelected

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Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

The food is GREAT at Sammy’s Mexican Grill in Phoenix, Arizona. Congratulations to Betty & Jorge Rivas on doing such a wonderful job.
I will try hard to stop by the next time I am in Phoenix.
Support Sammy’s!
@foxandfriends
4:11 PM · Mar 1, 2020
Hey grandpaw, this restaurant is not in Phoenix but over a 100 miles away in Tucson.
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  #123  
Old 01.03.2020, 21:43
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Re: Will Trump get reelected

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Not so black and white, some state boundaries move but mostly small changes.

In 2000, surveyors had to resurvey the South Carolina-Georgia border after it was discovered the Savannah River, which officially serves as the boundary, had meandered about a half-mile away from its 18th-century path.

Just north of there, North and South Carolina are currently working together to re-monument their shared border. "The boundary was first surveyed between 1735 and 1815," said Gary Thompson, chief surveyor at the North Carolina Geodetic Survey. "Originally, a few stones were placed at endpoints, but most of the markers were trees. The maintenance of the line wasn't updated, so over time that evidence of the boundary has faded away.

For nearly five years, Georgia and Tennessee have been sparring over the location of their shared border.

August 3, 1950 Kansas and Missouri exchanged small portions of land along the Missouri River.

August 25, 1961 About 20 acres of land was transferred from Minnesota to North Dakota

January 14, 1964 The Chamizal, a tract of land between El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, was divided between the United States and Mexico.
I think you knew what I meant. Gerrymandering does not change state boundaries. It changes the boundaries of state and US house districts in such a way as to give advantage to one party or the other.

Thus these examples are not gerrymandering.
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  #124  
Old 02.03.2020, 07:52
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Re: Will Trump get reelected

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Warren has no chance, and hopefully neither that scumbag Bloomberg.

I like Bernie, but his chance was in 2016, not now.

Biden is over the hill, so the situation is a total shambles.

Amy is best at the moment, but won't win.

Anyway, we will see on Wednesday.

Tom
I like Amy as well, definitely the most presidential candidate. Unfortunately she is in the shadows of the big guys, so she has almost no chance.

Biden might be over the hill, but he is the best chance to drive wins in the House and Senate.
Now that Mayor Pete has pulled out, this might just just give him the 15% he needs in California to stop Bernie running off with all the delegates .
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  #125  
Old 02.03.2020, 10:16
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Re: Will Trump get reelected

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Now that Mayor Pete has pulled out


In decades of voting I have rarely been able to vote for a candidate, but rather often ended up casting a vote against the other guy. Pete was one of the exceptions; he was an admirable candidate, and is an admirable man. I hope he has a future in US politics.

---

NYT columnist Tom Friedman's recent op ed piece 'Team Of Rivals' (a nod to Lincoln's cabinet). Friedman proposes a sane path forward for the democrats:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/o...gtype=Homepage

The article is likely behind a paywall; if you can't access it, a quick summary:

Friedman thinks the nomination will likely go to either Bernie or Bloomberg. Both are polarizing choices - and polarization will sink the democrats.

So he proposes that the way for the eventual democratic nominee to beat Trump is to unify the party by announcing his cabinet choices after the nomination, putting together a cabinet of talented people who represent the various factions of the party: the other candidates. Friedman's suggestions, calling upon the particular strengths of his rivals:

Amy Klobuchar - VP
Bloomberg/Bernie (whichever does not get the nomination) - Treasury
Biden - Sec. of State
Warren - Health and Human Services
Kamala Harris - Attorney General
Pete - Homeland Security
Corey Booker - Housing and Urband Development
Andrew Yang - Energy
Tom Steyer, new position - Sec. Of Infrastructure

He also recommends appointing Mitt Romney as Commerce secretary, a bipartisan move at a time bipartisanship is desperately needed.

An interesting thought exercise - and it could possibly work.

Unfortunately I very much doubt Bernie would go that route, he is too much of an ideologue.

---

My fear, talking to the young voters I know and reading articles discussing their demographic, is that the hard core Bernie supporters are committed to 'Bernie or bust'. If Bernie is not nominated this group will likely not vote at all. Ideological purity is more important to them than winning the general election.


Which leaves us with four more years of Trump. And a generation of Trumpism.
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  #126  
Old 02.03.2020, 12:53
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Re: Will Trump get reelected

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Which leaves us with four more years of Trump. And a generation of Trumpism.
Yep, the US and the world will definitely enter a post-Truth era.

If re-elected, he'll do 100 times more damage 2020-2024 than he did in his first term. He's knobbled the legislature, his next aim will be to knobble the judicial branch, which is extremely scary. I doubt Ruth B-G will last through another term. :-(

Not to mention career non-partisant public servants / SMEs will leave in droves and be replaced by loyalists.

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  #127  
Old 02.03.2020, 19:38
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Re: Will Trump get reelected

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I suppose it depends on just how stupid the generic American is.
I think we figured that out the first time around!
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  #128  
Old 02.03.2020, 20:12
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Re: Will Trump get reelected

I was completely shocked that he took office the first time. I admit, I thought Hillary would win it by a landslide. So I think I'd be a bit delusional to think that he couldn't win again, especially knowing that the electoral college favors Republicans.
I'm sure that every Trump supporter out there will be voting this November, so my only hope is that every Democrat will as well. Like someone else mentioned here, I can just imagine the amount of damage Trump could do in the next four years when he doesn't have to worry about his chances of being re-elected. He's already abusing his power as is.

This is a good website that explains how to vote as an American living abroad an also provides the necessary form(s) to complete online, etc. It's actually very easy. If you want Trump out as much as I do, please vote this November. Every vote counts. And I think this is perhaps one of the most important presidential elections in US history.

https://www.votefromabroad.org/vote/home.htm
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  #129  
Old 02.03.2020, 21:14
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Re: Will Trump get reelected

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In decades of voting I have rarely been able to vote for a candidate, but rather often ended up casting a vote against the other guy.
In US elections, I've voted twice, and both times FOR someone.

First, Reagan (in '84), second, Clinton (in '96).

Tom
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  #130  
Old 02.03.2020, 21:15
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Re: Will Trump get reelected

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the electoral college favors Republicans
It doesn't.

Tom
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