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  #201  
Old 21.06.2019, 13:20
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Re: UK prime minister resigns

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i tried to ignore this for as long as i could, but really. we're facing the likelihood that bojo is going to be PM?

i mean. i found his buffoonery quite entertaining, but i thought it was understood by everybody he was just meant to be a bit of comical light relief? how is it that he's going to be PM?!
now change boris for trump

berlusconi is already organising a kick ass summit for them both in the summer
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  #202  
Old 21.06.2019, 13:42
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Re: UK prime minister resigns

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i tried to ignore this for as long as i could, but really. we're facing the likelihood that bojo is going to be PM?
There's a new fly in the ointment...

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Convicted Tory MP Chris Davies loses seat triggering by-election
https://news.sky.com/story/convicted...ction-11746258

The last election results for this constituency were...

Name:  brecon.JPG
Views: 65
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecon...s_in_the_2010s

In the current climate, that seat could easily go to the LDs or The Brexit Party. If that happened, the Tories, even with the DUP agreement, would only have 322/650 seats in the House.

How low can their numbers go before a GE is automatically triggered (seeing as Loz loves a bit of triggering )? This by-election is going to be a cracking litmus test.
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Old 21.06.2019, 14:04
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Re: UK prime minister resigns

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There's a new fly in the ointment...


https://news.sky.com/story/convicted...ction-11746258

The last election results for this constituency were...

Attachment 137121
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecon...s_in_the_2010s

In the current climate, that seat could easily go to the LDs or The Brexit Party. If that happened, the Tories, even with the DUP agreement, would only have 322/650 seats in the House.

How low can their numbers go before a GE is automatically triggered (seeing as Loz loves a bit of triggering )? This by-election is going to be a cracking litmus test.
Think that by-election is going to come around too early to read too much into it. My prediction for what's going to happen:

Boris to trounce Hunt when the vote goes to the membership (this is a given)
Boris to go to Brussels in an attempt to reopen the withdrawal agreement
EU says no*
Boris says "look, we can't negotiate with these tosspots, we have to leave without a deal"
Parliament blocks no deal
Boris says "I can't work with these tosspots in Parliament, we need a General Election", fights election on basis of UK leaving without a deal
Now this is where I have no idea what will happen. Does magic grandpa pull something out of the hat again? Can Boris fend off the Brexiteer votes going to the Brexit party? What will be the effect of the Libdems? My gut says another hung parliament, but I wouldn't put it past Boris to win an outright majority and get the country out with no deal.

*one caveat here, if the EU agree to allow the UK to exit the backstop unilaterally, then I believe the withdrawal bill would get through Parliament as it is. I think there's a chance the EU could well agree to it too.
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  #204  
Old 21.06.2019, 14:23
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Re: UK prime minister resigns

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Think that by-election is going to come around too early to read too much into it. My prediction for what's going to happen:

Boris to trounce Hunt when the vote goes to the membership (this is a given)
Boris to go to Brussels in an attempt to reopen the withdrawal agreement
EU says no*
Boris says "look, we can't negotiate with these tosspots, we have to leave without a deal"
Parliament blocks no deal
Boris says "I can't work with these tosspots in Parliament, we need a General Election", fights election on basis of UK leaving without a deal
Now this is where I have no idea what will happen. Does magic grandpa pull something out of the hat again? Can Boris fend off the Brexiteer votes going to the Brexit party? What will be the effect of the Libdems? My gut says another hung parliament, but I wouldn't put it past Boris to win an outright majority and get the country out with no deal.

*one caveat here, if the EU agree to allow the UK to exit the backstop unilaterally, then I believe the withdrawal bill would get through Parliament as it is. I think there's a chance the EU could well agree to it too.
After all the flip-flopping and back-stabbing on Brexit, I don't think there is going to be a Tory majority in a new general election. Especially not with the Brexit party possibly splitting the pro-Brexit vote and thus helping LibDems, SNP etc get elected.

I wouldn't put it past Boris that he doesn't actually mind, as he would relish leading the opposition, and probably make a very good job of it with his mixture of buffoonery and calculating tactics and thus bolster up Tory support to re-win maybe the next election after that. Especially if a pro-remain coalition or single party comes to power who retract article 50 without even a second referendum, giving Boris the ammunition that the electorate has been cheated. Especially if an economic backslide sets in, which is pretty likely.

But then it won't work because traditionally the leader of a party who loses an election has to go.
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  #205  
Old 21.06.2019, 15:02
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Re: UK prime minister resigns

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Boris to go to Brussels in an attempt to reopen the withdrawal agreement
Who with?

I suggest that you make yourself familiar with these key dates and work out how any future renegotiation will fit in around these events.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/resour...2_original.jpg
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Old 21.06.2019, 15:06
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Re: UK prime minister resigns

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Who with?

I suggest that you make yourself familiar with these key dates and work out how any future renegotiation will fit in around these events.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/resour...2_original.jpg
The current commission. They’re still responsible until a new commission is elected chosen.
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