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  #10041  
Old 31.05.2020, 19:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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Every day makes me laugh!

I know you like ETH studies so you will welcome a new one that forecasts the Swiss coronavirus second wave will bring at least 5,000 deaths.
Myself, I find this scary
Mr. “7% is peanuts” getting worried about a single study suggesting 0.05% of the population of Switzerland could die in a second wave
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  #10042  
Old 01.06.2020, 02:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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Mr. “7% is peanuts” getting worried about a single study suggesting 0.05% of the population of Switzerland could die in a second wave
COVID-19 has killed 1,920 people in Switzerland so far. Have you noticed how concerned everybody (except you and a few friends, maybe) is about that? A second wave killing at least 5,000 would be a very big deal. About a 250% bigger deal than the current wave, in fact.

You can be flippant about 5,000 excess deaths, if you wish, but it's not a great look. I guess you don't have close family here, especially elderly loved ones, otherwise you might rethink your indifference.

By way of comparison, I assume you're aware of the intense focus on road safety in Switzerland -- the low speed limits, police-informer culture (especially in the German part), Via Sicura, stratospheric fines, etc? A lot of this is in response to the unacceptably high death rate on Swiss roads 15 years ago. Do you know how many people died in road accidents in Switzerland in 2007? Let me tell you: 384. It was 233 in 2018.

Do you still think 5,000 deaths -- or even 1,920 -- is laughably insignificant? They are preventable deaths, even more so than road traffic deaths, and they should be prevented. You don't get to choose who lives and who dies.
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  #10043  
Old 01.06.2020, 08:37
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Re: Coronavirus

Interesting read if you want to know more about the virus. Although reading it makes me wonder if a vaccine is even possible, given the number of ways it seems to attack.

https://www.bbc.com/news/52760992
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  #10044  
Old 01.06.2020, 09:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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They are preventable deaths, even more so than road traffic deaths, and they should be prevented. You don't get to choose who lives and who dies.

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  #10045  
Old 01.06.2020, 11:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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Interesting read if you want to know more about the virus. Although reading it makes me wonder if a vaccine is even possible, given the number of ways it seems to attack.

https://www.bbc.com/news/52760992
blood clots, cytokine storms etc is not something new when speaking about respiratory viral infections like flu
you can make a quick google about it and will find out a lot of articles long before pandemic
I wonder, why doctor's so "surprised" about it
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  #10046  
Old 01.06.2020, 11:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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blood clots, cytokine storms etc is not something new when speaking about respiratory viral infections like flu
you can make a quick google about it and will find out a lot of articles long before pandemic
I wonder, why doctor's so "surprised" about it
Maybe because it is much more common than before and this leads to high mortality rate.
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  #10047  
Old 01.06.2020, 14:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Maybe because it is much more common than before and this leads to high mortality rate.
there is still no numbers on this, so no reason to speculate atm
the IFR currently is from 0.2 to 0.4 which is twice more than seasonal flu, but taking in account not all numbers are in place, the actual IFR might be lower
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Old 01.06.2020, 16:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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Interesting read if you want to know more about the virus. Although reading it makes me wonder if a vaccine is even possible, given the number of ways it seems to attack.

https://www.bbc.com/news/52760992
I understand that Novartis started manufacturing a vaccine a couple of days ago. Whether that was for commercialization or for more investigation, I don't know.
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Old 01.06.2020, 17:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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Do you still think 5,000 deaths -- or even 1,920 -- is laughably insignificant? They are preventable deaths, even more so than road traffic deaths, and they should be prevented. You don't get to choose who lives and who dies.
Personally, I've been thinking about this lately. If I ask how many deaths are acceptable, many will immediately answer that no death is acceptable. And while it is obvious that we can always try to further reduce the numbers, there is a point at which drastic measures are not reasonable. For instance, there isn't a debate to ban cars and motorbikes just because that could save a couple hundred lives. Or at least not a significant one.

If now that borders will reopen throughout Europe there is a moderate increase in the number of corona cases, and subsequently in deaths, where is the limit? Let's take a look at the numbers from Germany, just because it is a bigger country. With around 83 million inhabitants there are some 2,500 daily deaths. Would 10 daily corona deaths be too many, while of course, we keep doing as much as possible to find a treatment or a vaccine, we maintain some not too paranoid hygiene measures, etc? Would 20 or 30 daily deaths be ok? For reference, in 2018 3,275 people died in road accidents in Germany, 9 per day. Assuming a CFR of 3%, 10 daily deaths in the long run (in a steady state, not with exponential growth) would mean 330 daily cases, while 20 deaths would mean 670 cases and 30 deaths 1000 cases. Now bring that back to Switzerland, you can give or take divide by 10. Are 30 daily cases and 1 daily death ok? 60 cases and 2 deaths? What is the acceptable limit that means that we can go on with our lives and we do not need stricter measures, border closures, etc?

Edit: the reference to not too paranoid hygiene measures refers mainly to the stupidity I see in my home country

Last edited by youcannotbeserious; 01.06.2020 at 17:18. Reason: add note
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  #10050  
Old 01.06.2020, 17:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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If now that borders will reopen throughout Europe there is a moderate increase in the number of corona cases, and subsequently in deaths, where is the limit? Let's take a look at the numbers from Germany, just because it is a bigger country. With around 83 million inhabitants there are some 2,500 daily deaths. Would 10 daily corona deaths be too many, while of course, we keep doing as much as possible to find a treatment or a vaccine, we maintain some not too paranoid hygiene measures, etc? Would 20 or 30 daily deaths be ok? For reference, in 2018 3,275 people died in road accidents in Germany, 9 per day. Assuming a CFR of 3%, 10 daily deaths in the long run (in a steady state, not with exponential growth) would mean 330 daily cases, while 20 deaths would mean 670 cases and 30 deaths 1000 cases.
Difficult question, also as Germany up to now had a recorded 8.511 people dying from Covid19, which is low comparatively.

And how long will you take those measures, until your economy collapses?

I´m happy that this is not my decision and I hope there will be a vaccin soon.
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  #10051  
Old 01.06.2020, 17:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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there is still no numbers on this, so no reason to speculate atm
the IFR currently is from 0.2 to 0.4 which is twice more than seasonal flu, but taking in account not all numbers are in place, the actual IFR might be lower
NYC population = 8.4M
NYC deaths so far = 21.5k
Divide one by another and you get 0.25% and this assumes everyone in NYC had it, which is obviously not the case. The real value is closer to 1-2%.

There is no reason to speculate on this, indeed. Lookup the numbers before posting nonsence.
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  #10052  
Old 01.06.2020, 18:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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I understand that Novartis started manufacturing a vaccine a couple of days ago. Whether that was for commercialization or for more investigation, I don't know.
That's the 4th one I've heard of going to production. The others are one in China and two in the UK, but I'm sure there are more. The logic is to begin production based upon good results during the second phase of testing (on animals) and before the testing in humans because if successful, the demand will be so great and immediate.
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  #10053  
Old 01.06.2020, 18:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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If now that borders will reopen throughout Europe there is a moderate increase in the number of corona cases, and subsequently in deaths, where is the limit?
The number of deaths is not the only measure. It could be quite serious for an economy if a significant number of people were moderately to seriously ill (so that they can't do their work, and need help), even if they later go on to recover.
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  #10054  
Old 01.06.2020, 19:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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...Now bring that back to Switzerland, you can give or take divide by 10. Are 30 daily cases and 1 daily death ok? 60 cases and 2 deaths? What is the acceptable limit that means that we can go on with our lives and we do not need stricter measures, border closures, etc?...
Switzerland is about at your numbers now. The last day there were more than 50 new cases reported was May 11th. Since May 9th there have not been more than 10 deaths per day. Source.

We've opened up gradually and the trend continues downward. Based on the moves the federal council has made to open up further, it would seem these numbers are what they deem "acceptable" in terms of getting on with life.
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  #10055  
Old 01.06.2020, 19:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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NYC population = 8.4M
NYC deaths so far = 21.5k
Divide one by another and you get 0.25% and this assumes everyone in NYC had it, which is obviously not the case. The real value is closer to 1-2%.

There is no reason to speculate on this, indeed. Lookup the numbers before posting nonsence.
you posted 1-2%. where did you get it? from nowhere?
there is a special trained people, who do the job for you:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....13.20101253v1

"Lookup the numbers before posting nonsence" (c)
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  #10056  
Old 01.06.2020, 19:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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the demand will be so great and immediate.
there is always a chance that long-term side-effects will be much worse then direct effect.
I think it should be used wisely at 1st time
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Old 01.06.2020, 19:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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... getting on with life, cautiously. At least, presumably enough people are still practicing all the recommended hygiene and social distancing measures, enough of the time, for there to have been no increase in infections.

It'll be interesting to see the rates of infection in two, four and six weeks as, bit by bit, people become more mobile again, and also as even the generally sensible, considerate, disciplined or fearful people (whatever their motivation) are likely to gradually grow more lax in upholding those measures.
I walk my dog all throughout central Zurich and I can only say that the numbers outside have doubled or even tripled; very few wear masks and there is very little social distancing compared to 4 weeks ago. The fact that Zurich has not seen any spike is curious to me. Either the warmer weather has mitigated the viral spread or many more people have had this virus than originally thought. I would have expected a spike in Zurich based on what I have observed the past three weeks.
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  #10058  
Old 01.06.2020, 19:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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COVID-19 has killed 1,920 people in Switzerland so far. Have you noticed how concerned everybody (except you and a few friends, maybe) is about that? A second wave killing at least 5,000 would be a very big deal. About a 250% bigger deal than the current wave, in fact.

You can be flippant about 5,000 excess deaths, if you wish, but it's not a great look. I guess you don't have close family here, especially elderly loved ones, otherwise you might rethink your indifference.

By way of comparison, I assume you're aware of the intense focus on road safety in Switzerland -- the low speed limits, police-informer culture (especially in the German part), Via Sicura, stratospheric fines, etc? A lot of this is in response to the unacceptably high death rate on Swiss roads 15 years ago. Do you know how many people died in road accidents in Switzerland in 2007? Let me tell you: 384. It was 233 in 2018.

Do you still think 5,000 deaths -- or even 1,920 -- is laughably insignificant? They are preventable deaths, even more so than road traffic deaths, and they should be prevented. You don't get to choose who lives and who dies.
Save your hand wringing and straw man arguments, there isn't going to be a second wave that kills 5000 people in Switzerland.

https://www.bielertagblatt.ch/nachri...na-welle-geben
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  #10059  
Old 01.06.2020, 20:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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Save your hand wringing and straw man arguments, there isn't going to be a second wave that kills 5000 people in Switzerland.

https://www.bielertagblatt.ch/nachri...na-welle-geben
22yards never said there will be one.....

And even if you do not agree, safety measures probably have saved us from worse.
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  #10060  
Old 01.06.2020, 20:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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I walk my dog all throughout central Zurich and I can only say that the numbers outside have doubled or even tripled; very few wear masks and there is very little social distancing compared to 4 weeks ago. The fact that Zurich has not seen any spike is curious to me. Either the warmer weather has mitigated the viral spread or many more people have had this virus than originally thought. I would have expected a spike in Zurich based on what I have observed the past three weeks.
Remember that big gatherings like concerts, nightclubs, festivals etc are still banned. Many people continue to work from officehome, reducing commuting and contact at theworkplace. Also, nowadays people spend most of their time outdoors, where the spreading chance is lower than in closed space.

And of course, personal hygiene certainly improved. Curious to see what the fall numbers of flu will be.

Last edited by LifeStrain; 01.06.2020 at 21:10. Reason: from home, lol
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