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  #181  
Old 02.04.2020, 09:09
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Re: Corona - The aftermath

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Nonsense. What you and others in your camp are deliberately choosing to ignore are the following facts:
- the virus can affect very badly not only people with preconditions or in a vulnerable age group
- when it affects badly those 20% out of total cases as estimated so far,
Wrong. It affects 20% of the CONFIRMED cases. Estimated cases are 10 to 20x more (for EF purposes we should agree this). You are just trying to manipulate the figures to suit your argument.

If we estimate, using EdwinNLs post over here (an EF authority on most subjects) - "At the moment in Switzerland 0,205% of the population is confirmed to have been infected, now the numbers 10x and 20x pass by a lot, if that be true than that would suck majorly since we'd then only have an infection rate of 2% to 4%"

The WHO says we have 800,000 confirmed cases. Using the EdwinNL extrapulation, that equates to 8,000,000 to 16,000,000.
The CONFIRMED statistic for the low risk is 0.02% from 800,000.
If we extrapulate that most of the 10x to 20x cases are going to be in the low risk group, then that 0.02% is a gross, gross over estimation of the risk (of death).

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- most families cannot isolate the "sick" one i.e. one person might be sick or with a compromised immune system (like my elder daughter's kindergarten teacher who is young and fit and Swiss but had multiple wrong treatments for a condition that left her with practically no immune system to speak of btw it is just an example), and the rest of the family members who live together are OK, if you let those out now they'll likely to bring the virus at home
And? They will alll be classified as high risk and won't be expected to work. Alternatively, shock horror, the family may need to be split up until a vaccine arrives.
Every hotel in Switzerland is empty. It's possible.

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The truth is we cannot restart all economic activities, other than the essential ones, right now. Maybe in a couple/few months. Get used to this idea. We have a long fight and it is going to last, don't start complaining like a toddler. This is just the beginning.
That is my argument, a controlled ramp up. You're just trying to turn the more level headed suggestions into your own.

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We must flatten the curve of infections so that the rate of recoveries starts being higher than the rate of infections. There are various mathematical models which point to this course of action and which exclude the things you're trying to manipulate people to accept or agree to.
I'm not trying to manpulate anyone, do and think what you want, if people do not agree then that's what keeps this forum alive.
Otherwsie it would just end up like one massive Trump thread (no offense Marton).
And also, you are pushing your agenda of wait and see by the looks of it.
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In the meantime, they'll be able to test various medicines and treatment schemes and they'll start to figure out a cure or at least something that is likely to work for most cases. I don't think we'll have a vaccine earlier than a year, though there are various research institutes across the globe which are trying their best, but a vaccine needs good testing before it's approved.
We'll soon be at the point where we are reducing the life expectency of people tomorrow to save people today.
Robbing Peter to pay Paul.

There are more and more headlines and reports of governments looking towards the ramp up. They are softening us up for the inevitable.
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  #182  
Old 05.04.2020, 10:30
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After the virus - The Great Depression of the 2020's

Many Economists say were on the cusp of the greatest economic depression in history, following all
the lockdowns and restrictions to fight the Coronavirus pandemic and despite the best efforts of
governments to mitigate the immediate economic effects of the Coronavirus pandemic; this problem
will quite simply be, too gigantic to mitigate once the pandemic eases and the restrictions are lifted.

New York Times - Why the Global Recession could last a very long time
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  #183  
Old 05.04.2020, 10:37
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Re: After the virus - The Great Depression of the 2020's

Is it going to be that global? Will some places be better off than others?
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  #184  
Old 05.04.2020, 10:44
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Re: Corona - The aftermath

Who knows ? but I'm sure that great panacea of wealth, buying houses more for how it will increase your wealth
rather than as a home to live in, is likely to take a battering for a start.
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  #185  
Old 05.04.2020, 10:55
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Re: After the virus - The Great Depression of the 2020's

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Is it going to be that global? Will some places be better off than others?
Yes the global North will largely be okay in the mid-term, as always. The global South will descend into chaos in part, social strife will be substantial in particularly very poor places, leading to many, many, many more deaths as a direct consequence of the North's uncoordinated and hasty actions and the resulting twisted peer pressures on every other country, and authoritarian regimes will resurge all over the place.

In the meantime, Spain, Italy and France and a few others in Europe will be (near-)bankrupt, Germany will bail out (who else would), the US debt will reach even more unprecedented heights, the social gap will widen (particularly in but not limited to the US), China will buy some stuff here and there for cheap, the Russians will probably try too, and then all is well in the world.

And if the death rate turns out to be somewhere near the 0.5-max 1% rate (very likely less), and if it turns out that few actually died specifically from the virus rather than a combination of factors where many other things would have had the same effect (also very likely), it'll have been totally worth it.

Been saying all above for 3 weeks and so far, all trends seem to be going in that direction. If a year from now I'm proven wrong, I'll happily stand corrected.

Last edited by Samaire13; 05.04.2020 at 11:11. Reason: Typos (mobile) plus some additions
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  #186  
Old 05.04.2020, 11:03
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Re: After the virus - The Great Depression of the 2020's

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Yes the North will largely be better off in the mid-term, as always. The South will descend into chaos in part, social strife will be substantial in particularly very poor places, leading to many, many, many more deaths as a direct consequence of this and authoritarian regimes will resurge.

Spain, Italy and France will be (near-)bankrupt, Germany will bail out (who else would), China will buy some stuff here and there for cheap, the Russians will probably try too, and then all is well in the world.

And if the death rate turns out ro be somewhere near the 0.5-1% rate (very likely), and if it turns out that few actually died specifically from the virus rather than a combination of factors where many other things wod have had the same effext (also very likely), it'll have been totally worth it. The differenves in coping is actua

Been saying all above for 3 weeks and so far, all trends seem to be going into that direction. If a year from now I'm proven wrong, I'll happily stand corrected.
Those were rhetorical questions. I think the countries who wait&see will protect their economies but destroy moral spirit of their nations, with a lot of human loss. I wouldn't underestimate China and Russia and their strategists.
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  #187  
Old 05.04.2020, 11:07
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Re: After the virus - The Great Depression of the 2020's

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Those were rhetorical questions. I think the countries who wait&see will protect their economies but destroy moral spirit of their nations, with a lot of human loss. I wouldn't underestimate China and Russia and their strategists.
You saying Putin isn't acting out of the goodness of his heart?

PS - made some additions above but you were quicker in quoting than I was in adding and correcting
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  #188  
Old 05.04.2020, 11:11
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Re: After the virus - The Great Depression of the 2020's

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You saying Putin isn't acting out of the goodness of his heart?
You saying Chinese cargo planes full of masks (NL had to claim their shipment and return the faulty masks) and doctors forced to work abroad - aren't an act of solidarity?

EU is being zero help, it leaves a lot of space for "helpers". I don't think EU bonds will fix it.
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  #189  
Old 05.04.2020, 11:14
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Re: After the virus - The Great Depression of the 2020's

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You saying Putin isn't acting out of the goodness of his heart?

PS - made some additions above but you were quicker in quoting than I was in adding and correcting
He goes see sick people, at least wears a full hazmat suit to not spread it, as opposed to potus.

No worries about edits, nobody is paid for journalism here or media presence, these are all just opinions
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  #190  
Old 05.04.2020, 11:25
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Re: After the virus - The Great Depression of the 2020's

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He goes see sick people, at least wears a full hazmat suit to not spread it, as opposed to potus.
Something tells me he is less concerned about infecting others and more about infecting himself

I'll give you the comment on the germophobe orange moron though who probably wishes he could bunker up in Palm Beach and go golfing all day on his private course.
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  #191  
Old 06.04.2020, 11:40
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Slammer´s rambling musings

Being grounded at home and on Kurzsarbeit at work gives one time to let the voices have their words.
One of them, the darker one I keep in the attic has been asking questions...

It is wondering how long this relative calm will last? For now and for most part people are compliant and doing as they are told.
But for how long?
Already the first cracks are showing, citizens in countries not fortunate enough to have access to government assistance are starting to fear for their future, a future that increasingly involves poverty with all the follow on aspects. Unemployment, hunger, no more resources left for healthcare, a breakdown of order.
Even in the so-called „first tier“ countries signs of wear are starting to show. Some political talking head on German TV was in all seriousness talking about „heard immunity“ and lifting restrictions.
Measures that were scrapped weeks ago.
Lenin is quoted by saying that chaos is only three missed meals away.
People are starting to miss those meals, right now.
How long do you think we, the general public, will stand for major companies crying for money, never getting enough and leaving nothing for you and me, the one point five trillion to shore up wall street is just the start.
The shareholder value must be kept at all cost. Any cost, even your life and the life of your loved ones will take second place.
The US has resorted to stealing other countries bought and paid for assets, there are sweeping police powers reminiscent of an embryonic police state all over Europe and Hungary is now de-facto a dictatorship.
It is also coming to light how easy and how fast our cell phones can be used to keep track of our movement, we have known for ages that it can be done but up to now if you mentioned it then people would offer you a tin foil hat. Not any more, the infrastructure is in place waiting only for the green light.
Despite all the measures in place and and the restrictions the numbers keep on rising, the deathtoll keeps on increasing.
I fear that we will reach a tipping point in a month or so and then riots will be the least of our worries.
For now governments are trying to buy time, the "curve" isn´t flattening out. Germany has past the 100.000 mark and counting. The US is on the way to half a million infected and 10.000 deaths.
This thing isn´t going away soon and it´s a race between the virus and the economy and I´m not talking about the one point five trillion for the banks but you and me. At some point even a country like Germany will have no money left and be forced to borrow. In fact all EU countries are at some point going to be forced to borrow from the ECB, or subscribe to the European Covid bonds, after that and I hope I´m wrong, the EU may never recover
In the aftermath the EU could end up broke. On the other hand you stand to lose lives, lots of lives. Or let me put it another way the choice the government has is to determine who is more important: "Either you kill people or the economy!"
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  #192  
Old 06.04.2020, 12:12
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Re: Slammer´s rambling musings

Can't give a general answer since countries differ so incredible much.

Take the EU, giving out EU bonds is just another way of giving Italy again a load of free money for which the rich countries get to pay since the only rich thing about Italy is its history of breaking financial agreements and spending more money than they have. I am strongly against EU bonds, sending money to Italy is like sending food to Afrika it changes nothing and is never enough I'm done with it if they want to bleed let them bleed.

Keeping the companies up, well their shares are our pension money, their jobs keep our economy up. Surely they can be asked to go down on their financial reserves before getting financial help. But keeping them up is important and about much much more than share-holder value.

As for food and such, we'll be fine in Switzerland even if this would last a year. Its countries like Afrika has a lot where people work the day and have to spend the money immediately to have food that same day where a lock-down never could work since it completely lacks a social system that could make such work. They also lack a medical system and it is there where numbers can go insane on huge outbreaks.

As for infection rate, I prefer to see these numbers as high as possible as long as the amount of deaths does not grow along. It be great if Germany now would have 40 Million infections with only about 1500 deaths, that would mean we can accept the price we have to pay by cutting loose the restrictions, now we simply don't know what price would have to be paid.
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  #193  
Old 06.04.2020, 12:20
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Re: Slammer´s rambling musings

@slammer

Some food for thought here. Don't know if you're familiar with this writer (Yuval Noah Harari), if not it's a good opportunity.

https://www.globalvillagespace.com/c...ll-now-emerge/

and here

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  #194  
Old 06.04.2020, 12:33
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Re: Slammer´s rambling musings

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@slammer

Some food for thought here. Don't know if you're familiar with this writer (Yuval Noah Harari), if not it's a good opportunity.

https://www.globalvillagespace.com/c...ll-now-emerge/

and here

It could go both ways, Harari is seeing the future as a opportunity to grow, but I fear that it is down to how the US survives that will dictate how the world recovers.
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  #195  
Old 06.04.2020, 13:09
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Re: Slammer´s rambling musings

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It could go both ways, Harari is seeing the future as a opportunity to grow, but I fear that it is down to how the US survives that will dictate how the world recovers.
Yes, I agree. So far US doesn't play the world leader role too honourably, it's a shame.
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  #196  
Old 06.04.2020, 13:23
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Re: Slammer´s rambling musings

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It could go both ways, Harari is seeing the future as a opportunity to grow, but I fear that it is down to how the US survives that will dictate how the world recovers.
Nonsense, the greatest indirect intangible asset the U.S. holds over any other nation is its resilience. No other country in the world displays it at such level. Take a look at NYC after 911 for instance.
They interviewed this redneck lady with about half a tooth left, right after a tornado blasted through what was formerly her house. The reporter asked her, what she's going to do now. And she answered in the thickest possible Southern accent (I mean, it almost sounded Australian)..."Heoow, we gon' rebiill dis sombish" (translation from phonetics: Yes Sir, I'm glad you asked that question. We have unanimously decided, to combine our efforts and rebuild the structural integrity of our former humble abode). That's 'Merica IMO.
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  #197  
Old 06.04.2020, 13:55
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Re: Corona - The aftermath

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Samaire! FFS will you stop it with all this level headness and rationality!


We either stay in our houses and eventually get eaten by rats/go outside and be struck down by the virus, OR, we go back to work and leave the old and sick (and now including the obese) to their own devices.

Survival of the fittest, some will die, many will survive.


It's one or the other, take a side!
This is a wanktastic attitude, pal.
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  #198  
Old 06.04.2020, 14:45
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Re: Slammer´s rambling musings

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Nonsense, the greatest indirect intangible asset the U.S. holds over any other nation is its resilience. No other country in the world displays it at such level. Take a look at NYC after 911 for instance.
I agree.

Also, the US hasn't had a particular interest in playing the official role of a hegemony for quite some time now. Even if in reality they still have that role. What's funny to me is how people still expect it when shit goes wrong, even though at the same time, they constantly bitch about them (and I don't mean bitch about Trump, but "the US" in general). Can't have it both ways. Granted, the EU has been a weak (political and military) construct to begin with and just about sort of worked as an economic one, and certainly no one is looking to get closer to China or Russia, so I guess the US is all that remains, as much as everyone seems to hate it.
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Old 06.04.2020, 14:48
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Re: Slammer´s rambling musings

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Nonsense, the greatest indirect intangible asset the U.S. holds over any other nation is its resilience. No other country in the world displays it at such level. Take a look at NYC after 911 for instance.
They interviewed this redneck lady with about half a tooth left, right after a tornado blasted through what was formerly her house. The reporter asked her, what she's going to do now. And she answered in the thickest possible Southern accent (I mean, it almost sounded Australian)..."Heoow, we gon' rebiill dis sombish" (translation from phonetics: Yes Sir, I'm glad you asked that question. We have unanimously decided, to combine our efforts and rebuild the structural integrity of our former humble abode). That's 'Merica IMO.
Rednecks don´t dictate US foreign policies regardless of how many banjos are playing.
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Old 06.04.2020, 14:58
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Re: Slammer´s rambling musings

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I agree.

Also, the US hasn't had a particular interest in playing the official role of a hegemony for quite some time now. Even if in reality they still have that role. What's funny to me is how people still expect it when shit goes wrong, even though at the same time, they constantly bitch about them (and I don't mean bitch about Trump, but "the US" in general). Can't have it both ways. Granted, the EU has been a weak (political and military) construct to begin with and just about sort of worked as an economic one, and certainly no one is looking to get closer to China or Russia, so I guess the US is all that remains, as much as everyone seems to hate it.
Loads of people dislike the EU and I believe them, especially now. Loads of people say how much they dislike the US and I have a hard time believing it. It just has been trendy to bitch about it. I think the position of the US now, at the beginning of an unexpected health crisis, is stronger than it would be under a different leadership. The fact that US is not as invested in the world and focusing on their home affairs is something that Trump did, imho. It did not happen by itself.

I am worried more about complacency, folks hating their own old, traditional enemies, etc. is making them too slow to check how the power and access to help is shifting fast.

Slammer, what I find the most dangerous is the new filter that has been installed, to let some in and some out of isolation, be it just by information that gets to them or not. There is a power redistribution happening, right when people are being calmed and fed by solidarity mantra. We are all staying in, isolating. But the new order is happening, with some who will have an access to all and info needed, and others who will keep following the instruction (even if they are quite contradictory or unclear), getting exhausted taking care of others and worrying about their health. Any disorder and lack of organisation or unfair treatment can be now shrugged off as force majeure, innit.
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Last edited by MusicChick; 06.04.2020 at 15:14.
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