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View Poll Results: Who will win the US election?
Trump/Pence 11 52.38%
Biden/Harris 10 47.62%
Voters: 21. You may not vote on this poll

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  #2001  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:00
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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If Donald Trump wins, my one hope is that he goes after the social media giants. If they want to behave like publishers, then they should be treated like publishers!
Exactly .. They have way overstepped the mark, I hope he crucifies them.

If he wins :-/
  #2002  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:02
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Exactly .. They have way overstepped the mark, I hope he crucifies them.

If he wins :-/
Indeed. They helped him "govern" the country and get into power.
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  #2003  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:15
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Exactly .. They have way overstepped the mark, I hope he crucifies them.

If he wins :-/
And yet the irony is that Trump spreads fake news and propaganda like a virus and then criticizes the media for doing exactly what he himself does.

But regarding social media, I think that needs to be dismantled due to the ways those sites are designed to program people's minds -- not simply in terms of what information they're being fed but in terms of how those sites are designed to trap people in a dopamine feedback loop, exploiting the "reward centers" of their brains (i.e. generating addiction and the desire for more "likes"). Excess dopamine causes psychopathy and schizophrenia.

Zuckerberg is a puppet master, and he's made billions by exploiting weaknesses in human psychology.

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Indeed. They helped him "govern" the country and get into power.
Yep. e.g. Cambridge Analytica and "Russian bots." Social media is the perfect tool for mass surveillance and mass mind control.

https://www.npr.org/2017/11/05/56205...th-social-bots
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  #2004  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:35
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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And yet we'll never do. I'm more interested in how the hell did these pollsters get it so wrong two times in a row. They had 4 years to fix their methodologies and yet, they didn't.

I'm curious, when will the US start catching up and changing it's election process? This college thing allowing for someone to get elected without having the support of the majority is clearly a nonsense. 2nd time in a row now.
Amazing. Particularly as the polls in 2018 were fairly good. Also, final polls in 2016 were indicating much smaller margins for Clinton than now for Biden. So arguably they had it more wrong now.
  #2005  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:36
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Bigger issue I see is that Democrats are so toxic themselves from undermining their own Bernie in two elections to the sham confirmation hearings for Trump's SC nominees in an election that will inevitably end up being heard by them

Sometimes you can't get what you need, just what you deserve
As Europeans we may like Bernie but its a sure bet that if he was standing it would be a landslide for Trump. They probably picked the best compromise candidate to appeal to all segments of the electorate.
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  #2006  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:38
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

Is Trums win really already certain?
  #2007  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:40
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Is Trums win really already certain?
No, there's still a large amount of mail in ballots to be counted in decisive states, and those ballots tend to lean heavily democratic. That's why Trump wants to stop them from being counted...
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  #2008  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:40
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Is Trums win really already certain?
no. 95% only
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  #2009  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:41
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Trump has one at this point. It is a done deal. PA, FL, WI, MI, GA, NC

Electoral map looks as done deal.
Biden just took the lead in Wisconsin, if he wins there and, say, MI or PA, he wins, which isn't an unlikely proposition if the votes actually get counted.
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  #2010  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:42
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

I'm still scratching my head as to how it has become so close. I was convinced Mr Biden was going to win and quite comfortably too. I mean, how could have the polling been so mistaken for a second time?! Experts, eh?
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  #2011  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:44
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Biden just took the lead in Wisconsin, if he wins there and, say, MI or PA, he wins, which isn't an unlikely proposition if the votes actually get counted.
No, he didn't.
  #2012  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:47
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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No, he didn't.
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  #2013  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:48
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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I'm still scratching my head as to how it has become so close. I was convinced Mr Biden was going to win and quite comfortably too. I mean, how could have the polling been so mistaken for a second time?! Experts, eh?
I've been following this for the last few weeks and I noticed a lot more caveating from pollsters and experts based on the 2016 experience. And in all of Obama's appearances he's been warning of complacency imploring the faithful to not just cheer, but vote.
  #2014  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:51
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Biden just took the lead in Wisconsin, if he wins there and, say, MI or PA, he wins, which isn't an unlikely proposition if the votes actually get counted.
It looks like Biden isn't going to win in PA, though. I'm surprised to see how much of the votes there have gone to Trump (currently at 55.7% to Trump and only 42.9% to Biden). 74% of PA's votes have already been counted, so it's unlikely that the remaining 26% would turn it to Biden's favor.

Trump and Biden appear to be "neck and neck" in Wisconsin now, with Biden at 49.3% and Trump at 49.0%, with an estimated 89% of the votes there having already been counted.

This appears to be a pretty good site for keeping track of each states' results as they come in and also shows the estimated amounts of total votes that have already been counted in each state. If you hover your mouse over each state, it shows the current status for each of them, and it appears to be updated quite often:

https://edition.cnn.com/election/202...n_national_map
  #2015  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:54
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

Looking at what's left, AZ looks to me to be clearly called too early. Republican on the day stuff to come. Unless they know it's the more D bits of on-the-day Maricopa to come...

Lot of R stuff to come in WI - no idea if it's on the day or not though.

GA looks like it will flip.

PA broadly has a lot of D vote still out there, but big trump leads. MI has more blue than red left to come in.

God this looks tight.
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  #2016  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:56
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

Ok. You must have faster internet.
  #2017  
Old 04.11.2020, 10:56
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

I've been using https://www.huffpost.com/elections

The graphics seem a touch friendlier, only they "call" states before there is a confirmation. So use with care.
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  #2018  
Old 04.11.2020, 11:12
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

As it now stands, Biden needs 46 electoral college votes to win (to get to 270), and Trump needs 57.

But the overwhelming majority of electoral votes that haven't yet been considered finalized are going to Trump, so it looks like he is most likely going to win the election unless there is a major shift in the current trend in Pennsylvania (which is unlikely) or a couple of the other high-count states like Michigan, North Carolina or Georgia shift their trend and turn in Biden's favor.

There are currently only 41 outstanding electoral votes that are in Biden's favor (he needs 46 to win) and 70 outstanding electoral votes that seem to be in Trump's favor (he needs 57 to win).
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  #2019  
Old 04.11.2020, 11:31
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

Am going to stick my neck out & call a narrow Biden win 😑

The race stands at 238 electoral votes for Biden to 213 for Trump, with six battleground states outstanding. If Biden can hang on to a narrow lead in Nevada, and seal the deal in Wisconsin, any additional state – North Carolina (15 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Michigan (16) or Pennsylvania (20) – brings him victory.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...s-polls-update
  #2020  
Old 04.11.2020, 11:34
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Am going to stick my neck out & call a narrow Biden win 😑

The race stands at 238 electoral votes for Biden to 213 for Trump, with six battleground states outstanding. If Biden can hang on to a narrow lead in Nevada, and seal the deal in Wisconsin, any additional state – North Carolina (15 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Michigan (16) or Pennsylvania (20) – brings him victory.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...s-polls-update
I'm going to offer the other side of that and say that as long as PA doesn't turn, and Trump hangs on to his broadish lead in the other states, it doesn't matter if he loses Nevada and Wisconsin. Then we'll see the court cases coming from both sides.
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