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View Poll Results: Who will win the US election?
Trump/Pence 11 52.38%
Biden/Harris 10 47.62%
Voters: 21. You may not vote on this poll

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  #2041  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:09
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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NV, WI and MI will give him the 32 votes needed indeed. It looks like it will be Michigan or Georgia to decide that election.

It feels like listening to a football game on the radio
It's more like a horse race.
Between two dead horses.
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  #2042  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:09
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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With you on this. Wisconsin is the critical one but looks promising. If you look at the outstanding counts in Michigan, they are mainly from Democrat areas (particularly when you look at absolute numbers uncounted), same deal in Nevada where the numbers are in Las Vegas and also looking Democrat.
And if he takes both of those states he still loses. With no chance to win even by delegates defecting Trump at 11th hour.
Let's face it , this is over.

It is another 4 years of Trump railing against deep state , illegal immigration, fake news media and occasionally doing some really great things (Middle East).

The consolation prize is this thread, we can all come here and post incessantly and daily hoping that this will placate our OCD just as well as group therapy.
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  #2043  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:11
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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It´s all about who is seen as who is the better candidate to protect wall street, keep the military budget flowing and let the rich stay rich.
Everything else is just cosmetics for the plebs.
Both candidates have these interests. The cosmetics for the plebs would include - who is seen the better candidate to protect the population from looting and BLM et co.
  #2044  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:12
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

Biden still needs 46 electoral votes to win. As is it now, if he wins all four states currently in his favor (and Wisconsin is a bit iffy, as he's only leading by .2%), that will still only given Biden 31 electoral votes, which means he would still need another 15 to win.

He could do that only if there is a shift and he takes one of the other States that is currently favoring Trump (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia or North Carolina).

This is the percentage of votes that are estimated to already have been counted in those four states:
MI: 84%
PA: 75%
GA: 92%
NC: 95%

So it does look like it's riding on Michigan and/or Pennsylvania to switch if Biden is going to win, since the overwhelming majority of votes in Georgia and North Carolina are already in.
  #2045  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:15
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Curiously, which state(s) have been finalized to give 238 electoral votes to Biden? I'm still seeing him as having only 224 electoral votes (with Trump still at 213).

https://edition.cnn.com/election/202...n_national_map
The discrepancy appears to arise – depending on where else you are looking – from Arizona, which the Associated Press, which The Guardian use, has called for Biden but which some outlets have not called.
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  #2046  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:26
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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The discrepancy appears to arise – depending on where else you are looking – from Arizona, which the Associated Press, which The Guardian use, has called for Biden but which some outlets have not called.
Okay, thanks.
  #2047  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:33
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

Are they really counting the absentee ballots only after the in person ballots? If so, the margins for Trump should shrink from now on. Does not mean Biden will come back.

So yes, from Trump's wicked point of view, a smart move to declare victory and now make any "after midnight" changes look dubious to his supporters and create as much of a minefield as possible.

What a broken country.
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  #2048  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:39
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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...So it does look like it's riding on Michigan and/or Pennsylvania to switch if Biden is going to win, since the overwhelming majority of votes in Georgia and North Carolina are already in.
If you look deeper into the open counts (the Graun has a pretty good tool btw), you will see the biggest chunk of open counting is in something called Wayne County (Detroit as far as I can see) which is solid Biden country. Some 400,000 votes to count of which about 2/3 should go Biden's way.

Wisconsin looks like Biden by a whisker, the handful officially uncounted are too few to overturn that tiny lead. I'm not sure what the status is there with mail-ins (usually helpful to Biden) and I believe the loser (isn't it nice to call Trump a loser even if there is a danger it is short lived) can demand a recount if the margin is less than 1%.
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  #2049  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:41
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

If GA, AZ, NC and PA go to Trump and WI, MI go to Biden it's 269 all.
  #2050  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:41
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Are they really counting the absentee ballots only after the in person ballots? If so, the margins for Trump should shrink from now on. Does not mean Biden will come back.
That's exactly (my) hope! Winning NV, WI and MI will give him the 32 votes needed to call it a day. MI should start turning blue with all the absentee ballots and NV and WI are blue-ish already.
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  #2051  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:42
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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If you look deeper into the open counts (the Graun has a pretty good tool btw), you will see the biggest chunk of open counting is in something called Wayne County (Detroit as far as I can see) which is solid Biden country. Some 400,000 votes to count of which about 2/3 should go Biden's way.

Wisconsin looks like Biden by a whisker, the handful officially uncounted are too few to overturn that tiny lead. I'm not sure what the status is there with mail-ins (usually helpful to Biden) and I believe the loser (isn't it nice to call Trump a loser even if there is a danger it is short lived) can demand a recount if the margin is less than 1%.
Donald Trump will demand a recount in WI and when that fails he'll go after the absentee ballots. Joe Biden will get the numbers now, but this thing isn't going to be over for weeks!
  #2052  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:42
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Are they really counting the absentee ballots only after the in person ballots? If so, the margins for Trump should shrink from now on. Does not mean Biden will come back.
I read that that is the case in Pennsylvania and "others". No idea who the "others" might be, though.
  #2053  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:47
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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If GA, AZ, NC and PA go to Trump and WI, MI go to Biden it's 269 all.
Don't you mean Arizona for Biden? Along with Nevada btw...

Pretty sure that would be 270-268 for Biden. Don't forget Biden picked up one elector in Nebraska.
  #2054  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:47
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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If GA, AZ, NC and PA go to Trump and WI, MI go to Biden it's 269 all.
In that case, I think the US constitution says that Rupert Murdoch has the golden vote.
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  #2055  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:53
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

Biden is gaining rapidly in Michigan with mostly urban votes left to count If Wisconsin and Nevada hold, Biden hits 270. Even Foxnews is now estimating those three states as between 70-90% probability to go to Biden.
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  #2056  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:53
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

I wrote down the stats an hour ago and just noticed that they've changed a bit for Wisconsin and Michigan.

Biden is now showing an even better lead in Wisconsin, and his numbers have improved slightly in Michigan. As someone mentioned above, if most of the votes being counted in MI are from Wayne County, that's probably going to mean a LOT of "black votes" going to Biden.

In PA, GA and NC, it appears that nothing has changed in the past hour in terms of the numbers reported.

I did read a bit ago that Trump is currently leading in PA by 700,000 votes, so I find it unlikely that PA will do a switch and turn in Biden's favor.

So if Biden does end up winning, I think the most likely scenario with that is Biden having taken Wisconsin and Michigan as well as the states he's already been leading in, which would put him at 271 electoral votes -- one more than the 270 he needs to win.

I was born and raised just outside of Detroit.

Come on, Michigan!!!
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  #2057  
Old 04.11.2020, 13:57
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

Puppet Biden has it in the bag, I guarantee
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  #2058  
Old 04.11.2020, 14:11
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

So.... Who is looking forward to Trump v Biden 2024?
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  #2059  
Old 04.11.2020, 14:14
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

Does anyone know about the (dare I say it?) recount provisions in these states? I.e. automatic recount if margin <0.5% or so?
  #2060  
Old 04.11.2020, 14:14
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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So.... Who is looking forward to Trump v Biden 2024?

They might both be dead by then, Covid-23/24.
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