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View Poll Results: Who will win the US election?
Trump/Pence 11 52.38%
Biden/Harris 10 47.62%
Voters: 21. You may not vote on this poll

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  #3061  
Old 22.11.2020, 14:32
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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I
I must admit your amusing idea really lifted my cold and gloomy Sunday that the Dems somehow inserted six million ballots into the election in the early morning hours.
But this is exactly what the data shows - at least on the graphs presented. I am also wondering how these large numbers of Biden votes got into the system at night. This might be explainable but it doesn’t look “normal”..
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  #3062  
Old 22.11.2020, 14:38
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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But this is exactly what the data shows - at least on the graphs presented. I am also wondering how these large numbers of Biden votes got into the system at night. This might be explainable but it doesn’t look usual.
No, as I explained before. Many people who voted for Biden voted via mail. Their ballots had to be opened, checked and scanned into the system. Large batch uploads at night. Like most big data processing. Mail ballots could only be opened on or after Election Day. Because the election staff was not permitted to open ballots before Election Day. Many Trump voters cast their ballots on Election Day.
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  #3063  
Old 22.11.2020, 14:43
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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No, as I explained before. Many people who voted for Biden voted via mail. Their ballots had to be opened, checked and scanned into the system. Large batch uploads at night. Like most big data processing. Mail ballots could only be opened on or after Election Day. Because the election staff was not permitted to open ballots before Election Day. Many Trump voters cast their ballots on Election Day.
In addition, several states (I think including most of the close calls) had a requirement for mail-in and early votes to be counted last. So not just a slow process, by design the Biden votes came in last.

Last edited by baboon; 22.11.2020 at 15:06.
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  #3064  
Old 22.11.2020, 14:56
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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In addition, several states (I think including almost most of the close calls) had a requirement for mail-in and early votes to be counted last. So not just a slow process, by design the Biden votes came in last.
Yes. Perhaps I wasn’t so clear on that. For example, Pennsylvania’s Republican legislature required mail votes to be opened on/after Election Day.
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Old 22.11.2020, 15:13
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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No, as I explained before. Many people who voted for Biden voted via mail. Their ballots had to be opened, checked and scanned into the system. Large batch uploads at night. Like most big data processing. Mail ballots could only be opened on or after Election Day. Because the election staff was not permitted to open ballots before Election Day. Many Trump voters cast their ballots on Election Day.
This is the graph — look at the big blue pick of 150 thousand votes. I guess this the mail-in vote batch? It shows as 96% Baden which is very high, I think even Putin gets it much smaller.
Even though people were asked to vote by mail by the democrat side, people are asked to do many things and are often slow to respond. Having such a high number of Biden votes in a single and large batch is at least questionable and requires some checking. It still could be correct of course but it is not usual and should be checked, don’t you think?
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Old 22.11.2020, 15:21
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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But this is exactly what the data shows - at least on the graphs presented. I am also wondering how these large numbers of Biden votes got into the system at night. This might be explainable but it doesn’t look “normal”..
And what is your source for normal?
Or to put it another way, how do you know what is normal?

You are just making a fact-free assumption of what is "normal".
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  #3067  
Old 22.11.2020, 15:21
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Trump says he is going to the Supreme Court will this - seems like he was trying to get there as soon as possible.
I wouldn't mind seeing at least one case appealed to SCOTUS, so Trump's hand-picked appointees can give him the slap-down he deserves. Conservative or not, they know the law and aren't going to just hand this to him on a silver platter because he fusses.

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Yes. Perhaps I wasn’t so clear on that. For example, Pennsylvania’s Republican legislature required mail votes to be opened on/after Election Day.
I think many people don't understand the complex process by which absentee/mail-in votes are processed. Keep in mind that unlike Election Day votes, absentee ballots first have to be processed before they can be opened and counted. Processing includes scanning the barcode, verifying the signature, ensuring there's a witness signature, etc.

It takes time to process a ballot, especially if the officials judging signatures (one from each major party) don't agree or if voters have left off important information. Most states' laws allow clerks to contact voters who have left off information and have the voter appear in person to correct whatever is wrong with the outer envelope. That's known as curing.
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Old 22.11.2020, 15:28
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

If someone wants the election to have been rigged in Biden's favor, they're going to perceive it as such -- regardless of a lack of evidence. Trump did a fine job of implanting that idea in people's minds, prior to the election. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I think that 20-30 years from now, people are going to look back on Trump and wonder how the hell he was even 'allowed' to come to power. Perhaps a bit like Germans think of Hitler now. "What the HELL were we thinking???" Trump is going to go down in history as the national 'face palm.'
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Old 22.11.2020, 15:40
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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This is the graph — look at the big blue pick of 150 thousand votes. I guess this the mail-in vote batch? It shows as 96% Baden which is very high, I think even Putin gets it much smaller.
Even though people were asked to vote by mail by the democrat side, people are asked to do many things and are often slow to respond. Having such a high number of Biden votes in a single and large batch is at least questionable and requires some checking. It still could be correct of course but it is not usual and should be checked, don’t you think?
The problem is your graph is incorrect, How a Michigan election map with false information went viral.

Erroneous Michigan vote map

We are used to other EF colleagues sharing false information but you are usually better than this.
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  #3070  
Old 22.11.2020, 16:15
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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This is the graph — look at the big blue pick of 150 thousand votes. I guess this the mail-in vote batch? It shows as 96% Baden which is very high, I think even Putin gets it much smaller.
Even though people were asked to vote by mail by the democrat side, people are asked to do many things and are often slow to respond. Having such a high number of Biden votes in a single and large batch is at least questionable and requires some checking. It still could be correct of course but it is not usual and should be checked, don’t you think?
It was checked, no? And found to be erroneous data, later corrected.

At any rate, when loading data, you’re going to find variation - one batch may be 90%, the next 50% - and this is all perfectly normal and to be expected. 90 and 50 averages out to 70, if the batch sizes are equal, btw.
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  #3071  
Old 22.11.2020, 16:43
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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It was checked, no? And found to be erroneous data, later corrected.

At any rate, when loading data, you’re going to find variation - one batch may be 90%, the next 50% - and this is all perfectly normal and to be expected. 90 and 50 averages out to 70, if the batch sizes are equal, btw.
Ok thanks, I didn’t know this was already found to be wrong and corrected.
When loading data, variations could be expected in both ways, but the larger the batch size, the less likely the big variation. Seeing this big batch with 96% of Biden votes just doesn’t look right, good to know it was corrected. I will try to find the updated graph, wondering how the count went after the error was corrected.
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  #3072  
Old 22.11.2020, 17:01
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Ok thanks, I didn’t know this was already found to be wrong and corrected.
When loading data, variations could be expected in both ways, but the larger the batch size, the less likely the big variation. Seeing this big batch with 96% of Biden votes just doesn’t look right, good to know it was corrected. I will try to find the updated graph, wondering how the count went after the error was corrected.
Here is the updated info for Shiawassee county. Notice that Trump won:
Biden 15,437
Trump 23,149

NYT article correcting (paywall):
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/t...gan-votes.html

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“All it was is there was an extra zero that got typed in,” said Abigail Bowen, the elections clerk in Shiawassee County in Michigan, just northwest of Detroit. “It was caught quickly,” she added. “That’s why we have these checks and balances.”

When Ms. Bowen and her team sent the county’s unofficial vote counts to Michigan officials early Wednesday, they accidentally reported Mr. Biden’s tally as 153,710, when it should have been 15,371, she said. About 20 minutes later, she said a state elections official called her to ask if the number was a typo; Shiawassee County doesn’t even have that many residents. Ms. Bowen said she corrected the figure and the number was updated.
Link to data source within the article:
https://www.electionreporting.com/co...5-85d0c6a3adc0

Reports on media site on election night and even on county/state websites are all unofficial until audits and canvasses are conducted. Audits and canvasses are intended to catch this kind of stuff.
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  #3073  
Old 22.11.2020, 20:26
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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No. People have been explaining this all along. I don’t think it’s unprecedented at all. But, I am a US citizen and used to the bizarreness of US voting.

1. Democrats vigorously encouraged mail in voting, early voting, absentee voting. So, many Democrats voted ahead of time.
2. For whatever reason, states have individual rules about accumulating votes - for example, in PA, you cannot open mail in votes before Election Day. Most states allow for leeway in counting mail in votes after Election Day. This includes both absentee and mail in votes. Some of the limitations regarding signatures, when to open votes, etc are put in force for political reasons. Likewise, limiting the number of drop off boxes in places like Texas.
3. Republicans encouraged Election Day voting.

As a consequence, more Republicans voted on Election Day, more Democrats voted via mail. Democratic votes were counted after Election Day which created a large number of votes for Biden which seemed to accumulate in the middle of the night.


The good thing is that turnout was high. And election officials have mostly worked as bipartisans to ensure a secure vote process, and have not fallen prey to political influence (e.g., Georgia). Citizens had their votes counted, no matter how they chose to vote. And people were given options to vote.

Most of the Trump legal actions have been without merit, again decided by judges who are on either side of the fence. Just because you can cobble together some legal action does not mean it is worthy of consideration.

To be fair, I am clearly on the side of the Democrats. But that doesn’t mean I do not see this for what it is.

I really feel that Trump’s behavior now is akin to a petulant spoiled child who wants to get even - his memory is long. From listening to the press conference (McIniney, or whatever) on Friday, I get the impression Trump is processing some major butthurt from 4 years ago when he felt he was not sufficiently welcomed to the presidency. Whatever. I wish he’d just do his freakin’ job, or leave with some grace. Asking too much, I guess.
Perhaps, Donald Trump is, I want to say in danger of, but I think it's already too far gone, losing all sense of reality. This is exactly what he used to his great advantage in 2016 when the Democrats and mainstream media had some sort of collective meltdown and started turning to crazy conspiracy theories to try and explain his election victory.

You say that Donald Trump's behaviour is akin to a spoiled child. Well this is what happens when the past four years have been spent delegitimising the election result and democratic process. Why shouldn't the Republicans just spend the next four doing the same thing? That's how it works now isn't it?

It starts with your first sentence "I don't think this is unprecedented at all", well I've news for you, IT IS! Unprecedented in the turn out, unprecedented in the number of mail votes, unprecedented in how the count went, unprecedented voting patterns etc.

It all boils back to reality, and when each sides perception of the truth and reality is SO distorted, how are they ever going to see eye to eye? If you think the last four years were bad, you're not going to like what comes next.
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Old 22.11.2020, 20:38
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Old 22.11.2020, 21:12
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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You say that Donald Trump's behaviour is akin to a spoiled child. Well this is what happens when the past four years have been spent delegitimising the election result and democratic process. Why shouldn't the Republicans just spend the next four doing the same thing? That's how it works now isn't it?

It starts with your first sentence "I don't think this is unprecedented at all", well I've news for you, IT IS! Unprecedented in the turn out, unprecedented in the number of mail votes, unprecedented in how the count went, unprecedented voting patterns etc.

It all boils back to reality, and when each sides perception of the truth and reality is SO distorted, how are they ever going to see eye to eye? If you think the last four years were bad, you're not going to like what comes next.
I stand by my statement. Given the effort put forth, this is not unprecedented. This is the sort of turnout one should have for a national election. And given the pandemic, mail in voting is a viable option. For the rest, I really don’t know what you’re on about.

I don’t know how the next four years will be. I guess we’ll have to see.
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Old 22.11.2020, 21:32
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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........................ Well this is what happens when the past four years have been spent delegitimising the election result and democratic process. ............................
Sadly you are correct. That is exactly what Trump has been doing, starting from him claiming he won the popular vote but it is no reason for Biden to attempt the same nonsense.
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Old 22.11.2020, 21:40
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Sadly you are correct. That is exactly what Trump has been doing, starting from him claiming he won the popular vote but it is no reason for Biden to attempt the same nonsense.
Starting from his claim the previous election was rigged and that he'd accept the result...if he won.
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Old 22.11.2020, 21:58
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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I really feel that Trump’s behavior now is akin to a petulant spoiled child who wants to get even...
Posted here just in case you hadn't yet seen this one:
Donny Goes to School - The President Show - Comedy Central
https://youtu.be/Th5uVIhQ8VY
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Old 23.11.2020, 01:36
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

The Trump comedy legal team continues along its chaotic way.
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The Trump campaign on Sunday sought to distance itself from attorney Sidney Powell despite her appearing with campaign lawyers at press events as recently as last Thursday.

In a brief statement released Sunday afternoon, President Trump's lead attorney Rudy Giuliani and senior legal adviser Jenna Ellis said that Powell "is not a member of the Trump Legal Team."
"She is also not a lawyer for the President in his personal capacity," the former New York City mayor added.

Trump himself also referred to Powell as a member of his legal team in tweets as recently as Nov. 14.
Source

A staunch ally of Donald Trump, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, said Trump has failed to provide any evidence of fraud, that his legal team was in shambles and that it's time to put the country first.
"Quite frankly, the conduct of the President's legal team has been a national embarrassment," he said.
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Old 23.11.2020, 09:25
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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If someone wants the election to have been rigged in Biden's favor, they're going to perceive it as such -- regardless of a lack of evidence. Trump did a fine job of implanting that idea in people's minds, prior to the election. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
'
“The bigger the lie, the more it is believed.” –Nazi Propaganda Minister Joseph Goebbels.
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