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View Poll Results: Who will win the US election?
Trump/Pence 11 52.38%
Biden/Harris 10 47.62%
Voters: 21. You may not vote on this poll

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  #581  
Old 02.09.2020, 13:34
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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They really don't, just do a search for "white nationalist Trump" or "Fascist Trump" into Twitter and you'll see both sides are as a bad as each other. If you can't see that then you're part of the problem.

Just watch this video of Democrat Representative Deberry, he gets it. Could I vote and were his name on the ballot paper then I would certainly be putting a cross next to his name!

https://twitter.com/mrctv/status/1297707698788728832
Very powerful.

If only turncoat Biden had that kind of backbone.
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  #582  
Old 02.09.2020, 14:02
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

I think this time around, Joe Exotic might have had a chance......
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  #583  
Old 02.09.2020, 18:47
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

Luckily the US federal agencies are politically neutral

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The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in July withheld an analysis meant for its federal, state and local law enforcement partners that warned Russia would attempt to push “allegations about the poor mental health” of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
Source

Seems to be a dirtier election campaign than usual; if that were possible
  #584  
Old 02.09.2020, 20:52
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

Joe Biden has opened up a 10-point lead over President Trump in the latest Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday.

The federal deficit is expected to reach a record $3.3 trillion this year, more than twice the largest level on record, but lower than earlier estimates, according to new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections.

The deficit will amount to 16 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the largest since 1945.
  #585  
Old 03.09.2020, 01:04
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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The federal deficit is expected to reach a record $3.3 trillion this year, more than twice the largest level on record, but lower than earlier estimates, according to new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections.

The deficit will amount to 16 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the largest since 1945.
It's a tad difficult to justify criticising the deficit when, supposedly and according to Modern Monetary Theory, debt no longer matters (at least given the right conditions). It would be difficult to find a leading Democratic politician who is dead set against it. Biden and Harris for instance have already expressed sympathies for the idea.

AOC is particularly fond of it because it obviates the need to finance the Green New Deal.
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  #586  
Old 03.09.2020, 01:10
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

Nationally, Biden has a big advantage over Trump, with six polls released in the past 24 hours showing him ahead by between 7 and 11 points.
A survey from USA Today and Suffolk University found Biden ahead by 7 points nationally.
New Economist/YouGov and University of Southern California (USC) polls showed the former vice president with an 11-point lead.
Surveys from Quinnipiac University, CNN and Grinnell College put Biden’s advantage in the 8- to 10-point range.

For those who say Clinton was also ahead, compare 2016 with 2020 below;

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  #587  
Old 03.09.2020, 03:39
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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It's a tad difficult to justify criticising the deficit when, supposedly and according to Modern Monetary Theory, debt no longer matters (at least given the right conditions). It would be difficult to find a leading Democratic politician who is dead set against it. Biden and Harris for instance have already expressed sympathies for the idea.

AOC is particularly fond of it because it obviates the need to finance the Green New Deal.
I'm not sure that anyone truly believes that "debt no longer matters"... but anyway, the issue with the US national debt and the current budget deficit is that Trump promised in 2016 to "get rid of" the national debt (then $19.6 trillion) over eight years. Instead, he's treated the US like one of his own now-defunct companies, extracting what he can for himself and his acolytes before dumping the bankrupt husk of the former cash cow in the gutter, and the national debt is expected to blow out to $28.5 trillion by 2024 if Trump gets another four years as President.

The historical average deficit in the US is 2.9% of GDP. The 2017 deficit was 3.5%, about 20% higher than average, which is not great. But by 2019 it was already 4.7% of GDP -- more than 60% above the average annual deficit -- and now, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the budget deficit for 2020 will be $3.8 trillion: 18.7% of GDP! That's nearly 550% above the average! That single year's budget deficit alone is equal to the entire federal budget proposed by President Obama for 2011. That's a shocking statistic. Any public company with debt exploding like that would see its entire Board of Directors dumped at the first available opportunity. But of course, the USA is no private company; it's now Trump's personal fiefdom. He is demonstrating again that he has no clue how to manage complex budgets.

The other point about the national debt is, who owns it? I don't have the stats right now but I'm pretty sure that "Chyna" now owns a large chunk of the US, by default (pun intended).

I'm not sure why you think the Green New Deal wouldn't need to be financed. Money spent has to come from somewhere. If it's borrowed, it incurs interest, which has to be paid, and the capital does have to be repaid at some point; the total debt is limited by the United States debt ceiling, which is legislated by Congress. If the US Treasury hits the debt ceiling, and Congress refuses to raise the ceiling, the Treasury would be forced to default on at least part of its debt. And if you think the economic outlook is being impacted by COVID-19, just wait and see what defaulting on public debt looks like.
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  #588  
Old 03.09.2020, 09:29
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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I'm not sure why you think the Green New Deal wouldn't need to be financed. Money spent has to come from somewhere. If it's borrowed, it incurs interest, which has to be paid, and the capital does have to be repaid at some point; the total debt is limited by the United States debt ceiling, which is legislated by Congress. If the US Treasury hits the debt ceiling, and Congress refuses to raise the ceiling, the Treasury would be forced to default on at least part of its debt. And if you think the economic outlook is being impacted by COVID-19, just wait and see what defaulting on public debt looks like.
The debt ceiling doesn’t seem to mean much any more as so far it has been raised every time it was reached . Rather politicians seem to think it’s a bargaining tool . We will raise the ceiling if we get this or that out of it . Outside of the Ron Paul camp (and he is no longer a congressman ) you won’t find many principled no votes .
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  #589  
Old 03.09.2020, 10:11
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

As I forecast the violent protests are dying down leaving Trump's "law and order" theme without any legs to stand on.

Quote:
Kenosha mayor lifts curfew citing several 'peaceful' nights
Source

Trump is claiming credit for the improvement despite the fact that the Dem Governor called in his State national guard before Trump had even heard of the place and there was no extra federal law enforcement involved.

Meanwhile
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Attorney General William Barr, in a wide-ranging interview on CNN Wednesday, condemned states using mail-in voting during the coronavirus pandemic, and didn't object to President Donald Trump seemingly implying that voters should cast two ballots this November.

These comments contradict the views of bipartisan election officials and a wide array of voting experts who say voting-by-mail is a safe option with protections in place to prevent systematic fraud. There is no widespread fraud in US elections, even in states with a history of heavy mail-in voting, running directly counter to Barr's assertions.
Source

The AG has now completely moved to the dark side
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  #590  
Old 03.09.2020, 13:26
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Nationally, Biden has a big advantage over Trump, with six polls released in the past 24 hours showing him ahead by between 7 and 11 points...

For those who say Clinton was also ahead, compare 2016 with 2020
As pointed out by CNN yesterday (I know, I know), the national polls in 2016 weren't exactly wrong. Clinton did win the popular vote. Biden could well do the same and still not get enough EC votes to land the presidency.

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I'm not sure that anyone truly believes that "debt no longer matters"...

The other point about the national debt is, who owns it? I don't have the stats right now but I'm pretty sure that "Chyna" now owns a large chunk of the US, by default (pun intended)...

I'm not sure why you think the Green New Deal wouldn't need to be financed. Money spent has to come from somewhere.
Part 1 - I've been doing a little reading about this, and apparently the new "it" thing is MMT - Modern Monetary Theory. Those who subscribe to the theory believe government debt doesn't matter, because governments can simply print all the money they want. A book dropped this summer titled "The Deficit Myth". Check out the first review of said book here, as it's certainly an interesting theory:
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/...e-deficit-myth

Part 2 - Apparently "only" 30% of U.S. debt is foreign-owned. Pretty chart here:
https://howmuch.net/articles/foreign...f-us-debt-2020

Part 3 - See part 1. If you believe in MMT, which I guess AOC does, the money is easy to find because you simply print what you need.

  #591  
Old 03.09.2020, 14:56
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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I'm not sure why you think the Green New Deal wouldn't need to be financed. Money spent has to come from somewhere.
It's a refreshing and welcome change to see you provide a well formulated logical statement, instead of resorting to silly arguments from authority like you did last time. Thank you for this.

As to your points, what makes you think that I think the Green New Deal doesn't need financing? My post doesn't mention my own position. At best you could infer from my "supposedly" that I'm hesitant to accept MMT, which would be putting it mildly.

I do disagree though with the notion that government debt has to be repaid, since the introduction of FIAT money and credit this happens rather rarely. Of course debt instruments with a maturity do have to get repaid, but when that happens they're either rolled forward or replaced by another form of debt. Generally speaking the sum total doesn't shrink. The final years of Clinton's presidency were the rare exception WRT USA, and that caused considerable insecurity among Wallstreet'ers because the financial markets seemed to be about to lose their benchmark bonds.
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Part 1 - I've been doing a little reading about this, and apparently the new "it" thing is MMT - Modern Monetary Theory.
Wasn't it you who enquired about MMT on here a while ago, and got zero feedback? Maybe that's (was) indicative of its prominence.
  #592  
Old 03.09.2020, 15:08
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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...Wasn't it you who enquired about MMT on here a while ago, and got zero feedback? Maybe that's (was) indicative of its prominence.
I mentioned it somewhere, maybe not on this exact thread, because the book seemed to get a lot of buzz on U.S. media sites and I wondered if similar thoughts were rolling around this side of the pond.

Thinking further, it makes sense it hasn't gained much traction here. EU countries are restricted in that each one can't print as much as it wants to fund whatever it wants. It seems the Swiss have so much money sitting around they don't know what to do with it, so also no need to worry about MMT here?

All that to say at least in the USA some people think MMT is a stellar concept. Not sure I agree.
  #593  
Old 03.09.2020, 16:57
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Part 1 - I've been doing a little reading about this, and apparently the new "it" thing is MMT - Modern Monetary Theory. Those who subscribe to the theory believe government debt doesn't matter, because governments can simply print all the money they want.
If it was that easy, why not abolish taxes altogether?
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  #594  
Old 03.09.2020, 17:11
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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If it was that easy, why not abolish taxes altogether?
Well. Or tax people so high that nobody ends up paying.
  #595  
Old 03.09.2020, 17:12
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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I mentioned it somewhere, maybe not on this exact thread, because the book seemed to get a lot of buzz on U.S. media sites and I wondered if similar thoughts were rolling around this side of the pond.

Thinking further, it makes sense it hasn't gained much traction here. EU countries are restricted in that each one can't print as much as it wants to fund whatever it wants. It seems the Swiss have so much money sitting around they don't know what to do with it, so also no need to worry about MMT here?

All that to say at least in the USA some people think MMT is a stellar concept. Not sure I agree.
Why not ask Robert Mugabe how just printing more money worked out for him. The worthless 100 Trillion banknote might give you an idea.
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  #596  
Old 03.09.2020, 18:27
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Why not ask Robert Mugabe how just printing more money worked out for him. The worthless 100 Trillion banknote might give you an idea.
Exactly. I'm a bit late to reply, but MMT is basically about writing off debt (or interest payments) by printing extra money to pay for it. The only conclusion of that process is inflation. This is Economics 101. Even my teenaged children understand this. Increase the money supply and prices rocket up to accommodate all that lovely new money. Furthermore, other countries understand that the US is just printing money ad lib, so they reduce their valuation of the US dollar in exchange; the US dollar gets devalued. Great for exports, terrible for paying off foreign debt or interest on that debt (depending on how the loan was denominated) -- which, as 3Wishes just pointed out, is some 30% of the total national debt. Many trillions of dollars.

MMT is a terrible idea. It didn't work for Zimbabwe, it didn't work for pre-WWII Germany, it didn't work for Yugoslavia, and it won't work for the USA.
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  #597  
Old 03.09.2020, 18:28
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Why not ask Robert Mugabe how just printing more money worked out for him.
Well, he's dead...
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  #598  
Old 03.09.2020, 20:44
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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I mentioned it somewhere, maybe not on this exact thread, because the book seemed to get a lot of buzz on U.S. media sites and I wondered if similar thoughts were rolling around this side of the pond.

Thinking further, it makes sense it hasn't gained much traction here. EU countries are restricted in that each one can't print as much as it wants to fund whatever it wants. It seems the Swiss have so much money sitting around they don't know what to do with it, so also no need to worry about MMT here?

All that to say at least in the USA some people think MMT is a stellar concept. Not sure I agree.
The basic assumption seems to be that a country in control of its own currency is a closed system.

However the US has a huge debt which it currently funds by selling bonds to other nations.
This has the effect that the US needs to maintain the value of the dollar to a level that makes these bonds attractive to other countries.
Also the US has to make interest payments which need to also have a sufficient dollar value that the payments are attractive to other countries.

It is difficult to see how the US could escape from this which prevents the US being a closed system.
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  #599  
Old 03.09.2020, 20:53
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

In a developed economy, money can flow into more markets than consumer goods only, and push prices upwards. Since 1980 M1 and M2 money supply has increased about 10-fold, the US CPI (consumer price index) however has increased 3.6-fold only whereas the SP500 increased ~30-fold. Collectibles may have increased even more, according to the German Wiki the most expensive painting in 1980 was sold for $6mln, today the record is $450mln, a 75-fold increase.

So, it doesn't look like the connection between money supply and CPI in western economies is that direct, that inelastic. Rather the contrary. As a consequence the comparison to Zimbabwe is probably flawed because there were no domestic stock, bond, collectibles, etc markets.

The comparison with the Weimarer Republik fails because we no longer have the gold standard. In today's fiat money systems money supply can be changed at will, as we're just witnessing due to Covid-19.
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Old 03.09.2020, 21:34
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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As a consequence the comparison to Zimbabwe is probably flawed because there were no domestic stock, bond, collectibles, etc markets.
Doesn't every country that is more than a micronation have some level of domestic stock and bond market as well as a domestic market for collectibles, art, antiques, valuables etc? I'm sure Zimbabwe did.

What happened in Zimbabwe was that land, which is typically a relatively safe and long-term investment opportunity, was rendered worthless by Mugabe's land confiscation policies.
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