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View Poll Results: Who will win the US election?
Trump/Pence 11 52.38%
Biden/Harris 10 47.62%
Voters: 21. You may not vote on this poll

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  #601  
Old 03.09.2020, 21:45
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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The basic assumption seems to be that a country in control of its own currency is a closed system.

However the US has a huge debt which it currently funds by selling bonds to other nations.
This has the effect that the US needs to maintain the value of the dollar to a level that makes these bonds attractive to other countries.
Also the US has to make interest payments which need to also have a sufficient dollar value that the payments are attractive to other countries.

It is difficult to see how the US could escape from this which prevents the US being a closed system.
Have a look at the present yields on US Treasuries - all well below 1% except for the 30 years, slightly above.

In real terms, for example in francs, these yields are in fact negative.
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  #602  
Old 03.09.2020, 21:47
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Generally speaking the sum total doesn't shrink. The final years of Clinton's presidency were the rare exception WRT USA, and that caused considerable insecurity among Wallstreet'ers because the financial markets seemed to be about to lose their benchmark bonds.
Actually the opposite is true. The profligacy of the most recent administrations (since Reagan)—Clinton excepted—is in stark contrast with the continual decline in the national debt since the end of WWII. And I think everyone can understand why the debt shot up during the war.

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  #603  
Old 03.09.2020, 22:22
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Actually the opposite is true. The profligacy of the most recent administrations (since Reagan)—Clinton excepted—is in stark contrast with the continual decline in the national debt since the end of WWII. And I think everyone can understand why the debt shot up during the war.
It would be useful if you quote correctly.

As I mentioned, "since the introduction of fiat money". For the US that took place in 1971 with the abolishment of the gold standard. And usually, adjustments to such a system change don't happen overnight.
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The basic assumption seems to be that a country in control of its own currency is a closed system.
It is.

We live in a world of fiat money. In such a system, money is a credit to the central bank (to the treasury in the case of coins, at least for CHF and USD). As with any debt, the only entity that can be held accountable is the debtor.

The foreign money you may hold in your brokerage represents a chain of promises that looks something like
broker/bank -> domestic central bank -> BIS (Bank for International Settlement) -> and the foreign central bank to satisfy its respective counterpart's claim. Likewise for the CHF you may have used to pay for the foreign money.

Last edited by Urs Max; 03.09.2020 at 22:34.
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  #604  
Old 03.09.2020, 22:30
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Doesn't every country that is more than a micronation have some level of domestic stock and bond market as well as a domestic market for collectibles, art, antiques, valuables etc? I'm sure Zimbabwe did.

What happened in Zimbabwe was that land, which is typically a relatively safe and long-term investment opportunity, was rendered worthless by Mugabe's land confiscation policies.
Sure, real estate is another market, and probably bigger than stocks in the US. I just have no market data for the US, so i left it out. No idea about stocks and bonds in Zimbabwe, but to be relevant I would think they need to be of some size and breadth. I would think a price collapse in, say, sports cars wouldn't affect the general economy noticeably, whether that's here or there.
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  #605  
Old 03.09.2020, 22:59
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Nationally, Biden has a big advantage over Trump, with six polls released in the past 24 hours showing him ahead by between 7 and 11 points.
A survey from USA Today and Suffolk University found Biden ahead by 7 points nationally.
New Economist/YouGov and University of Southern California (USC) polls showed the former vice president with an 11-point lead.
Surveys from Quinnipiac University, CNN and Grinnell College put Biden’s advantage in the 8- to 10-point range.

For those who say Clinton was also ahead, compare 2016 with 2020 below;

Attachment 140156

Attachment 140157
If those plots were generated with the same time scale, it would be easier to do a direct comparison. What I mean is that the horizontal axes should be identical. Someone must have done this somewhere....I’ll look around.
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  #606  
Old 03.09.2020, 23:08
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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If those plots were generated with the same time scale, it would be easier to do a direct comparison. What I mean is that the horizontal axes should be identical. Someone must have done this somewhere....I’ll look around.
Yes, well the 2016 plot runs to the 2016 November election whereas the 2020 plot only runs to today
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  #607  
Old 04.09.2020, 07:55
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

More bad news for Mr. Trump... Radio report this morning refers to a poll of 18-29 year olds. Indications are that 77% of these say they intend to vote this year. Much higher than in previous years. In 2016 58% of this group went to Democrats.
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  #608  
Old 04.09.2020, 08:50
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

After Trump's victory in the last election, I'd like to see qualifie predictions on the electoral votes
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  #609  
Old 04.09.2020, 09:20
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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After Trump's victory in the last election, I'd like to see qualifie predictions on the electoral votes
Your wish is my command

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cp...d_table-nc.png

Sorry it comes out too big if I post it as an image.

In the 14 ‘battleground’ states Biden leads in 11. In 2016 Trump took 10. In the 3 other of these states (Georgia, Iowa and Texas) where Trump won in 2016 his lead has diminished considerably. In Texas, for example his lead has fallen from 9.1% to 3.2%.

Could be a landslied for Biden.
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  #610  
Old 04.09.2020, 09:33
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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After Trump's victory in the last election, I'd like to see qualifie predictions on the electoral votes
Everything you ever wanted to know about predictions for the Electoral College. Check out "The winding path to victory" -- a nice graphic that tells the story quite succinctly.

Biden is currently favoured to win the EC in about 70% of election simulations. That's about the same position he was in before the RNC, meaning that Trump received almost no boost from his party's convention.
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  #611  
Old 04.09.2020, 09:34
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

I will not be celebrating anything until the results are in. If Trump wins it will be a dark, dark day, week, month and year(s) and the US can kiss goodbye to democracy and say hello to autocratic authoritarianism and a giant backwards leap in civil liberties.
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Old 04.09.2020, 10:02
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

Jimmy Carter endorses mail-in voting despite GOP claims he is against.
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Jimmy Carter is pushing back on efforts by Attorney General William Barr and the White House to use the former Democratic president's work studying voting by mail to discredit the practice.

He also contextualized his findings from a mail-voting commission in 2005 that Barr and White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany have employed to disparage voting by mail.

McEnany had asserted earlier Thursday that Carter "said in 2005, as part of a bipartisan commission, absentee ballots remain the largest source of potential voter fraud."

But Carter on Thursday pointed to a statement last May from the Carter Center endorsing the use of mail-in ballots. Using the findings from the 2005 commission report, that statement argued "that where safeguards for ballot integrity are in place ... there was little evidence of voter fraud."
Source

Big selloff in US markets yesterday, Nasdaq futures also negative now.

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Over 90 percent of protests this summer were peaceful, report shows
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...l-report-shows
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  #613  
Old 04.09.2020, 10:29
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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As pointed out by CNN yesterday (I know, I know), the national polls in 2016 weren't exactly wrong. Clinton did win the popular vote. Biden could well do the same and still not get enough EC votes to land the presidency.
I'm struggling to believe the polls too. The first and obvious reason is what happened last time out, secondly I think there is a phenomenon at play I've dubbed the "Trump effect", whereby anyone other than the President's most die hard supporters are so shamed for admitting they support the President that they rather keep their views to themselves until polling day, finally I just don't see anything that the Biden campaign is doing or saying that is of appeal to middle America.

The polls have it a shut out for Joe Biden, whereas the Bookmakers have it 50:50
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  #614  
Old 04.09.2020, 10:44
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Exactly. I'm a bit late to reply, but MMT is basically about writing off debt (or interest payments) by printing extra money to pay for it. The only conclusion of that process is inflation. This is Economics 101. Even my teenaged children understand this. Increase the money supply and prices rocket up to accommodate all that lovely new money. Furthermore, other countries understand that the US is just printing money ad lib, so they reduce their valuation of the US dollar in exchange; the US dollar gets devalued. Great for exports, terrible for paying off foreign debt or interest on that debt (depending on how the loan was denominated) -- which, as 3Wishes just pointed out, is some 30% of the total national debt. Many trillions of dollars.

MMT is a terrible idea. It didn't work for Zimbabwe, it didn't work for pre-WWII Germany, it didn't work for Yugoslavia, and it won't work for the USA.
One huge difference between the US and Zimbabwe is that the US dollar is an international anchor currency, and even without the currency, most countries are much more dependent on and interconnected with the US than they are with Zim. And so whereas Mugabe was able to wreck his own country, AOC can wreck half the world.
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  #615  
Old 04.09.2020, 11:15
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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And so whereas Mugabe was able to wreck his own country, AOC can wreck half the world.
Fortunately she won't need to go to the trouble, as Trump is doing it for her.
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Old 04.09.2020, 14:31
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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What is your source or have you been hearing voices in the night again.
17-Year-Old Kyle Rittenhouse Shot ANTIFA Pedophile and Domestic Abuser Dead in Kenosha
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  #617  
Old 04.09.2020, 17:44
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

Oh that looks like a reputable publication. Wonder why CNN hasn’t picked up the story.
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  #618  
Old 04.09.2020, 18:28
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Oh that looks like a reputable publication. Wonder why CNN hasn’t picked up the story.
Probably it's made up or it just doesn't fit their narrative.
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Old 04.09.2020, 18:36
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

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Probably it's made up or it just doesn't fit their narrative.
What about Fox?
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Old 04.09.2020, 19:28
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Re: Trump or Biden .Who you got?

And then there is this about the Portland shooter:

LACEY, WA - It is with heavy hearts that we report the death of Michael Reinoehl, a Portland protester residing in Lacey. Mr. Reinoehl suffered multiple gun shot wounds after engaging with a federal task force who obtained a warrant for arrest from the Portland Police Department in connection with the shooting death of Aaron J Danielson, a far right Trumpeter and self proclaimed “boogaloo boy”. Reinoehl was said to be armed with a fully automatic rotary pistol, and a pickup bed mounted gantry beam rifle.

Reinoehl had returned from the International Space Station just 8 days before his death, after “becoming heavily engaged with an Antifa Facebook page group chat,” said his former spouse and animal caretaking aid at GW Exotic Animal Park. His former spouse went on to clarify that Reinoehl had never been the same following the tsunami disaster at Japan’s Fukashima Daiichi nuclear facility, where he served as head custodian. Initial tests concluded that Reinoehl suffered no lasting radiation poisoning from the meltdown. However, in a statement released by U.S. Marshals service, the head coroner reported what appeared to be a bioluminescent glow from his earlobes and beneath his fingernails.

Details are still emerging regarding the events leading up to Reinoehl’s death, we will continually update this article to ensure the latest and most accurate information.
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