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  #21  
Old 27.08.2020, 15:37
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Re: Belarus 2020

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Same story in Bulgaria right now - 50 days of continuous protests against a highly corrupt government not reflected in Western media simply because the EU actually likes the Bulgarian prime-minister simply because compared to Orban and Putin he seems like a good guy and Frau Merkel doesn't want to distort that story. Realpolitik again
EU is also treating Serbia in the same way, or so I hear.
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  #22  
Old 27.08.2020, 15:43
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Re: Belarus 2020

Now we have an re-assurance (of intervention) in Putin's TV interview:
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Russian President Vladimir Putin said the Kremlin has prepared a cadre of police officers to assist Belarus if necessary, sending a strong signal of support for his embattled ally Alexander Lukashenko.

Lukashenko “asked me to form a certain reserve of law-enforcement officers, and I did,” Putin said in an interview with the state-run Rossiya 24 channel broadcast Thursday. “But we also agreed that it will not be used unless the situation gets out of control.”

[...]

“We are certainly not indifferent to what is happening there,” Putin said. “It is a very close, perhaps the closest country to us.” Russia stands ready to provide military support if needed under a collective-security treaty, he said.

Russian law-enforcement officers would be deployed only if “extremist forces, under the cover of political slogans, cross the line to robbery, burning cars, homes, banks and try to take over administrative buildings.”
Bloomberg: Putin Steps Up Support for Belarus With Pledge of Police
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  #23  
Old 27.08.2020, 16:02
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Re: Belarus 2020

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EU is also treating Serbia in the same way, or so I hear.
Hm, I don't understand this comparison. As far as I know, and I got a lot about it from my Serbian friends, the current president of Serbia is extremely nationalistic and populistic, he is also meeting and dealing a lot with Orban.
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Old 27.08.2020, 16:05
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Re: Belarus 2020

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This as far from understanding the strengths and stance of the Eastern European countries towards Russia as it gets.
The military capability of "powerful Poland" is a fraction of Russia - in 2018 it was 11B vs 60B USD. And then Russia has not only a lot "dark" budget apportioned to the military as well, but the capacity to manufacture all the modern weapons while Poland is closer to a 3rd world country (in the capacity of its military industry)and any advanced hardware has to be sourced from elsewhere. That alone should explain everything. Ditto for the Balkan republics. Besides, there is a difference between a nationalistic propaganda soaked country with the purpose of popular support to any "patriotic" conquest and a run of the mill peaceful society which main preoccupation is healthcare of pensions and politicians try to sell these to the voters and not conquest of an even poorer country :-)

This "Russia has to oppose NATO" doesn't really make any sense. NATO was "braindead" until very recently Russia did more aggressive moves. The NATO protection of Poland and Baltic republics is a total joke militarily, it took months to even let some US soldiers to clear beaurocratic barriers to take part in some joint exercises. There are no soldiers, no weapon storages, no defence systems in place. There is simply no any possibility to react. What stops Russia is hopefully the reasoning that they would not gain that much but would loose their only real allies in the struggle with China. (they may posture as China would be their partner but in reality and long term they'd doomed and they know that very well)


That's why Sweden got some cold sweat and started talking anout bringing their military back to shape when they realized Trump's threats might be real.
I think you are incorrect here. Poland has a long history of antagonizing Russia and in every conflict they have had their asses handed to them. So I would say that Russia has every right to be worried about a Poland backed by nato. And if I were Russia I would be wary of pissed off former Soviet states holding a grudge.
Remember there is a precedent when Poland acting under British guarantees of protection fortified the Westerplatte despite German warnings not to.
And then there is the big one: I don´t fear Russia, I fear the American military industrial complex needing a war.
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Old 27.08.2020, 16:23
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Re: Belarus 2020

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I think you are incorrect here. Poland has a long history of antagonizing Russia and in every conflict they have had their asses handed to them. So I would say that Russia has every right to be worried about a Poland backed by nato. And if I were Russia I would be wary of pissed off former Soviet states holding a grudge.
Remember there is a precedent when Poland acting under British guarantees of protection fortified the Westerplatte despite German warnings not to.
And then there is the big one: I don´t fear Russia, I fear the American military industrial complex needing a war.
If you meant 16th century, I could only agree. But if you meant 18 to 20th century, I could only understand it as a particular sense of derisory irony feigning ignorance of Polish role of a pawn. In the same spirit Poland have actually started the WWII by attacking Germany - Wikipedia reference-linkGleiwitz_incident
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  #26  
Old 27.08.2020, 17:11
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Re: Belarus 2020

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If you meant 16th century, I could only agree. But if you meant 18 to 20th century, I could only understand it as a particular sense of derisory irony feigning ignorance of Polish role of a pawn. In the same spirit Poland have actually started the WWII by attacking Germany - Wikipedia reference-linkGleiwitz_incident
As Hitler said: "Nobody asks the winner if he is telling the truth!"
History shows that the Polish-Soviet war of 1919-1921 was initiated by Poland over old border disputes.
A pretty interesting period where almost all countries east of the Oder were fighting over borders.
As a Tonkin moment the attack on the transmitter was not very successful but the incident on the Westerplatte where Poland ignored previous treaties and stationed troops and constructed fortifications played into German hands. Also the Germans were well aware of Polish-French talks over conducting a preemptive strike against Germany, that and the British guarantee makes me ask the question: "Who fired the first shot?"
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Old 27.08.2020, 17:55
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Re: Belarus 2020

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As Hitler said: "Nobody asks the winner if he is telling the truth!"
History shows that the Polish-Soviet war of 1919-1921 was initiated by Poland over old border disputes.
A pretty interesting period where almost all countries east of the Oder were fighting over borders.
As a Tonkin moment the attack on the transmitter was not very successful but the incident on the Westerplatte where Poland ignored previous treaties and stationed troops and constructed fortifications played into German hands. Also the Germans were well aware of Polish-French talks over conducting a preemptive strike against Germany, that and the British guarantee makes me ask the question: "Who fired the first shot?"
Have you checked the military strengths of Poland and Germany in 1939?
Basically the Brits gave Poland these promises to incite it to fight a loosing defensive war if attacked by Germany so that UK would have more time before entering the war. It was to stop Poland from striking a deal with Germany. Not the other way around as you're suggesting. Poland didn't play, it has been effectively played here. Think the other states that actually either stayed neutral or let the Germans do a softer invasion. On the other hand Poland was brutally oppressed by Wehrmacht and the number of civilian casualties speaks for itself - it is order(s) of magnitude higher than in Western Europan countries occupied by Germany.
Edit:
You're taking about Poland as a full state in its own right and capabilities. But in reality it was an assembly of peripheries of three former neighbours with a gap of statehood and unity for more than hundred years. So, here emerges a patchwork of territories from late 18th century, with everything incompatible and many ethnicities, and after a mere 20 years it would be imputed a role of what, conspiring to conquer Germany?
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  #28  
Old 27.08.2020, 20:06
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Re: Belarus 2020

https://twitter.com/ISEUConcerned
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  #29  
Old 28.08.2020, 11:33
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Re: Belarus 2020

Still not sure what OP meant by sacrifice, could you please clarify?

Meanwhile this week, Putin promises support to the dictator, Sweden mobilizes the military while claiming this is not related to Belarus, but aimed at showing readiness while Russia is doing some military exercises in the Baltic. https://app.ft.com/content/832c6b5a-...3-641897298214
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Old 28.08.2020, 16:26
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Re: Belarus 2020

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Still not sure what OP meant by sacrifice, could you please clarify?
The Russian regime needs some degree of popular support and legitimacy for its own stability.
(Viable treat of) imposing harsh economic sanctions for real messing with Belarus internal affairs could have a chilling effect. These sanctions come at an economic cost, of course. This is the sacrifice. However, in long term it should pay off.
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  #31  
Old 28.08.2020, 16:48
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Re: Belarus 2020

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Hm, I don't understand this comparison. As far as I know, and I got a lot about it from my Serbian friends, the current president of Serbia is extremely nationalistic and populistic, he is also meeting and dealing a lot with Orban.
So is Merkel. It's just the German press that loves to perpetuate its dichotomous view.
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Old 28.08.2020, 16:54
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Re: Belarus 2020

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Have you checked the military strengths of Poland and Germany in 1939?
When Neville Chamberlain and Hitler carved up Czechoslovakia in Munich in 1938, Poland got a piece too, did it not?

So the interpretation of Poland being 100% a victim when it comes to Hitler's expansionism is a bit selective maybe.
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Old 28.08.2020, 17:23
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Re: Belarus 2020

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When Neville Chamberlain and Hitler carved up Czechoslovakia in Munich in 1938, Poland got a piece too, did it not?

So the interpretation of Poland being 100% a victim when it comes to Hitler's expansionism is a bit selective maybe.
I think Chamberlain has been treated roughly by history, without the "peace in our time" effort the war could have started in 1938 at a time where Britain was totally unprepared. But just like the first world war could have started in 1912 it was adverted at a very late hour. All the same the game was set for the second one, it just needed a spark.
Thing is, also just like the first war was a continuation of the European wars of the 19th century, ww2 was a war with many fathers.https://www.amazon.com/1939-War-That.../dp/144668623X
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Old 28.08.2020, 17:34
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Re: Belarus 2020

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I think Chamberlain has been treated roughly by history, without the "peace in our time" effort the war could have started in 1938 at a time where Britain was totally unprepared. But just like the first world war could have started in 1912 but was adverted at a very late hour the game was set for the second one in 1938, it just needed a spark.
Thing is, also just like the first war was a continuation of the wars of the European wars of the 19th century, ww2 was a war with many fathers.https://www.amazon.com/1939-War-That.../dp/144668623X
An important contributory factor to WW2 was that there had never been an attempt to resolve territorial claims in Eastern Europe in a manner that gave all sides and claims a fair hearing. This was worsened by the rather dictatorial peace settlements post WW1, and gave Hitler (and other leaders) a veneer of legitimacy in their claims. Although time has healed or wiped away many wounds and many potential conflicts have fortunately vanished, the recent wars we have seen in the former Yugoslavia and to some extent the present day conflicts in the middle east are all direct or indirect consequences of this.
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Old 28.08.2020, 18:57
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Re: Belarus 2020

Oh poor Russia, the good guys from the east, minding their own business and never messing with other, weaker states. Give me break, as somebody coming from former Czechoslovakia, nothing good will ever come from Russia (well good for them, not anybody else).



Putin is relatively smart and cunning, but his KGB methods leave a lot to desire if you want to live in normal stable place. Billions he stole from Russia that he saves via cronies in UBS and other banks here and elsewhere just shows his true character.

If they had the resources, they would be same warmongers as US, only way more corrupt. Luckily for neighbors and rest of the world, they have not, so this is all they have balls to do, which is still plenty.
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Old 28.08.2020, 19:34
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Re: Belarus 2020

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If they had the resources, they would be same warmongers as US, only way more corrupt. Luckily for neighbors and rest of the world, they have not, so this is all they have balls to do, which is still plenty.
Thankfully, Russia did not muster a China-like giant economic leap, but, effectively run as a mafia state, stunted its growth despite its plentiful natural resources and arable land available.
I wonder if they reach N. Korea phase of using its nukes to extort subsidies.
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  #37  
Old 29.08.2020, 12:11
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Re: Belarus 2020

@mikedragos, @Sultan of Swing:
Have a look at the terms " tactical nuclear weapons" and "nuclear blackmail".
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Old 29.08.2020, 19:25
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Re: Belarus 2020

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Oh poor Russia, the good guys from the east, minding their own business and never messing with other, weaker states. Give me break, as somebody coming from former Czechoslovakia, nothing good will ever come from Russia (well good for them, not anybody else).
It would be difficult to provide a better confirmation of what amogles just wrote.
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  #39  
Old 30.08.2020, 16:20
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Re: Belarus 2020

It will be interesting to watch Montenegro elections today. The southern version of Lukashenko - their dictator Djukanovic has been in power since the nineties.

The only difference - he enjoys full support by the EU and the NATO; It will be interesting to watch how the NATO crony rigs the elections to stay in power and what will EU and NATO say about it.

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Old 30.08.2020, 22:21
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Re: Belarus 2020

First results indicate high voter turn out; seems the people were so keen to get rid of him, finally. Despite all EU/NATO support and rhetoric to the Mafia state, the crook will go where he deserves. Finally there could be some trafficking indictments raised in Italy and other countries that were for now parked due to his diplomatic immunity.

Will Montenegro be the country with the shortest NATO membership in history? stay tuned...
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