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  #61  
Old 19.11.2020, 14:55
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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Eh? That link (the part of my post you quoted) was ONLY about battery recycling as was your original (and confusing) answer. Although I'm happy you say I understood it.

On renewables, because of their inherantly less reliable nature there HAS to be (and will be) a planned oversupply coupled with storage. One method will certainly to use battery cars and the pricing of recharging to buffer some of that unpredictability and encouraging recharging when supply is plentiful.

On a small scale, there are already people using their cars as a storage and overnight home supply for the PV supply from their roofs.
None of these anecdotes defend your statement that Solar and Wind will provide oversupply of energy.

Let's define oversupply for private FV or Wind supply system; Oversupply is when you provide all necessary energy for all your personal needs and sell Excess (Oversupply) of electricity to the grid. Wind and Solar in a future might allow people to live 100% off the electrical grid, but their Oversupply will never meet the needs of the society growing demands for energy. In other words the Wind and Solar are always going to be marginal players in electricity production due to their inherent lack of efficiency and energy density of the source. They might actually be phased out if when scaled up they prove to be too taxing on environment and too energy demanding in recycling of their worn equipment.
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Old 19.11.2020, 15:04
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

I found this interesting

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Old 19.11.2020, 15:06
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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None of these anecdotes defend your statement that Solar and Wind will provide oversupply of energy.

Let's define oversupply for private FV or Wind supply system; Oversupply is when you provide all necessary energy for all your personal needs and sell Excess (Oversupply) of electricity to the grid. Wind and Solar in a future might allow people to live 100% off the electrical grid, but their Oversupply will never meet the needs of the society growing demands for energy. In other words the Wind and Solar are always going to be marginal players in electricity production due to their inherent lack of efficiency and energy density of the source. They might actually be phased out if when scaled up they prove to be too taxing on environment and too energy demanding in recycling of their worn equipment.
He didn't say "Solar and Wind", he said "renewable" which also includes hydro, tidal, geothermal, biofuel etc etc.

It is very likely that there will be peak overcapacity across all of these options, and even possible that there is enough continuous capacity.
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Old 19.11.2020, 16:22
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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He didn't say "Solar and Wind", he said "renewable" which also includes hydro, tidal, geothermal, biofuel etc etc.

It is very likely that there will be peak overcapacity across all of these options, and even possible that there is enough continuous capacity.
He said exactly solar and wind and added 'in good weather conditions'.
Here is the quote:
'EVs are a perfect mix with solar or wind which in future will have overcapacity in good weather conditions.'
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Old 19.11.2020, 16:31
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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He said exactly solar and wind and added 'in good weather conditions'.
Here is the quote:
'EVs are a perfect mix with solar or wind which in future will have overcapacity in good weather conditions.'
I see; perhaps next time you could quote the thing you're replying to rather than an item several iterations further down.

In any case you took his "over capacity" point, ignored the part about good weather, and replied with a more generic denial that wind and solar would be adequate for overall supply.
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Old 19.11.2020, 17:57
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

The thing about cost is the following:

For cheaper cars, fuel is a substantial part of the total cost of ownership.
For more expensive cars, depreciation completely takes over, so buying a car that sheds 7-8-10-15k/year in the first years of ownership and justify it's saving 1-2k on fuel costs is ridiculous in my mind.

Maintenance will also remain an issue. Many problems with older cars are not necessarily coming from the engine. They can come from the engine, and maybe in some cases majority comes from there, but suspension and infotainment and sensor issues will remain because these systems will go nowhere.

So if you're part of the market that is leasing and getting new cars every other year or so, you're not saving much because depreciation will bite you in the ass no matter the engine. With potential battery degradation, or technology becoming visibly obsolete as the new car has substantially better range, depreciation could get even steeper.

If you're part of the "I run a car to the ground" part of the market, you're still have issues with all systems other than the engine. And while the motors are not going to have issues are they are simple reliable things, the batteries can be a royal PITA. You won't need to repair them, but you also won't be able to repair them. You'll just chuck them in recycling (for a hefty charge probably), and then you'll need to get another one.


Not much will change, other than the experience. And even there, most cars are already getting closer and closer to the electric car experience. They're not that noisy, they have flat torque curves, they have smooth seamless automatic gearboxes, so they're getting there...
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  #67  
Old 19.11.2020, 18:07
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

Another thing is that probably the "fun factor" will change as electric cars become compulsory and margins / differentiation disappear.

I'm confident car makers will come up with ways of making electric cars fun or rebellious or cool, once they can't fall back on the easy option of recycling a fuel-based idea, because then they can charge a premium for them.
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Old 19.11.2020, 19:16
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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This is just laughable. No way will the UK be ready for this in 2040, never mind 2030.

How are they going to provide charging points for every single car parked outside on the streets? Not to mention the hundreds of points that would be needed at motorway service areas and other places for people travelling long distance. And don't get me started on the amount of pollution making all the batteries for electric cars generates.

The whole electric car idea was flawed from the start. It needs a major rethink and standardised manufacturing of the vehicles at a minimum.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54981425
Maybe the next Bond film could quicken the pace of change to EV in the UK by Q presenting 007 with
a supercharged all electric Aston Martin that can be recharged from Bonds mobile phone ?

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  #69  
Old 19.11.2020, 19:56
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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He said exactly solar and wind and added 'in good weather conditions'.
Here is the quote:
'EVs are a perfect mix with solar or wind which in future will have overcapacity in good weather conditions.'
I mostly said renewables but did specially mention solar and wind in connection with ev charging - and I only mean overcapacity in terms of their planned overall contribution to the grid, basically what newtoswitz said (I also believe nuclear should be a part of that mix).

I have PV panels on my roof. These produce as much electricity as my peak demand, The rest of the time - when it's sunny - they feed the grid; hence I have planned surplus capacity. You plan a regional or national grid on the same basis, hence you build surplus capacity into your generation. Particularly for solar and wind where generation is less controllable.

You use that excess to charge or run stuff that can store energy - pumped storage or batteries. Same as I will at home when battery prices come down a bit more. You can and - as mentioned - some already do use a battery car as home energy storage
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Old 19.11.2020, 19:59
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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Currently EVs are expensive and probably will depreciate faster too..
Depreciation on Teslas is annoyingly low. A year old model 3 costs pretty much the same as a new one.
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Old 19.11.2020, 20:20
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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Fun to drive? LMFAO. Can I have some of the Kool-Aid you‘ve been drinking please.

Firstly - while certain electric cars may have incredibly impressive acceleration, they are generally thought by people who enjoy driving (see next point) to be quite dull to drive. Heavy equals bad. Electric cars are heavy. Lack of noise equals bad.

Secondly - The vast majority of people don‘t care about driving being fun. Cars are seen as appliances to get one from A to B.

Thirdly - By 2030 I believe we will be at a stage where automated driving is viable if not standard. No one will care if the car is fun to drive or not, because they won‘t be doing the driving.

I say all of that as someone who‘s next car purchase is likely to be electric - the new Porsche Macan when available. Because it will fill our utilitarian needs, not because it‘s fun.
Oh the Macan....that car with half the range of a Model X?
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Old 19.11.2020, 20:50
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

So, what do people think will happen to the fossil fuel cars bought in 2029? Taxed to oblivion by 2035? Will second hand fossil fuel cars prices rise as they will be in demand?

I haven’t seen the year that the EU/CH is wanting to introduce this, is it 2035? Or is this now irrelevant as most car manufacturers will go towards the UK date and just bring it in to the EU market even if the dates do not match?
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Old 19.11.2020, 21:09
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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So, what do people think will happen to the fossil fuel cars bought in 2029? Taxed to oblivion by 2035? Will second hand fossil fuel cars prices rise as they will be in demand?

I haven’t seen the year that the EU/CH is wanting to introduce this, is it 2035? Or is this now irrelevant as most car manufacturers will go towards the UK date and just bring it in to the EU market even if the dates do not match?
Has it's own Wikipedia page. Quite a few countries banning new ice sales from 2030 including Germany. Austria from 2027

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phas...ogram%2C%20Sri
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Old 19.11.2020, 21:14
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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I would love to know what you were comparing as Volvo (at least in CH) only offer hybrids or fully electric vehicles. There's nothing else in their product range any more.

In any event, the like for like hybrid to non-hybrid price difference was never as much as 20K.

Oh and your assumptions on electric are wholly wrong, as Don Molina wrote the full system efficiency of electirc is already significantly better than fossil. And as was pointed out further above (someone posted a nice link) hydrogen is significantly less efficient than battery.
Go to any Volvo garage loads to petrols still hanging about,I was comparing a hybrid to a purely petrol. It was ball park around 20K.

Hydrogen can be produced from nuclear, wind and you don’t need to cut down a forest and dig the side off a mountain to produce a battery so is much more nicer than lithium batteries that the current electric cars use.Hydrogen is the future not just for the auto industry.

If you read I was talking about the calculated C02 for manufacturing of a car not the entire life span.
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Old 19.11.2020, 21:38
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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Go to any Volvo garage loads to petrols still hanging about,I was comparing a hybrid to a purely petrol. It was ball park around 20K.
Cheapest NEW Volvo currently listed on Autoscout is a XC40 for CHF 33,990. At 129ps this can't be compared to any of the current range. Volvo have decided to push their range upmarket - the price difference is not due to hybrid.

Demonstrators are not new cars.

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Hydrogen can be produced from nuclear, wind and you don’t need to cut down a forest and dig the side off a mountain to produce a battery so is much more nicer than lithium batteries that the current electric cars use.Hydrogen is the future not just for the auto industry.

If you read I was talking about the calculated C02 for manufacturing of a car not the entire life span.
Yes, hydrogen can be produced from all those. But the process is massively less efficient than battery. This is the link medea posted earlier which explains it

https://theconversation.com/hydrogen...science-139899

FWIW, l would agree hybrids are not worthwhile. Disadvantages of both. Far better to go full electric.
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Old 19.11.2020, 21:55
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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Oh the Macan....that car with half the range of a Model X?
Would love to see the link to something that tells us the range of an unreleased car. We know the Macan is coming, but don‘t even know what it looks like. The closest thing is a partial view of a clay model.

Model X is bigger than I am interested in.
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Old 19.11.2020, 23:52
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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So, what do people think will happen to the fossil fuel cars bought in 2029? Taxed to oblivion by 2035? Will second hand fossil fuel cars prices rise as they will be in demand?
I think they will begin phasing out pure ICE cars a lot sooner, in favour of EV or hybrids. The market will dictate, nobody will want a car that is expensive to tax, impossible to sell on and no longer in vogue.

For the car enthusiasts yes, ICEs will probably be in demand but we're talking V6s and Turbo charged hot hatches, not your average family estate.
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Old 20.11.2020, 03:50
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

I wonder if motorcycles are going to be included in the purge. So far there really isn't a single decent electric bike available for sale -- at least, nothing that could possibly tempt me, and I am in the market for a new bike right now. In any case, more than with any other type of vehicle, exhaust note is crucial to enjoyment and even contributes to the safety of the bike. While I'm actually quite happy to have gone electric on four wheels, I'm just not interested at all in the current two-wheeled offering.

According to this random website, the best overall electric motorcycle is that thing from Harley-Davidson. Frankly: no. Because, Harley-Davidson. But more importantly, its claimed range is around 150 km if you ride it in a spirited fashion. That should be fun on a weekend tour with your mates.

Oh, but good news: the "best premium motorcycle" is the Arc Vector. Its range is (supposedly) up to 620 km. And it looks sensational, too!



I'll take one! How much?

$110,000. For a bike. And that's before it lands in Switzerland.

And so it goes on.

I really can't see electric motorbikes usurping their ICE cousins anytime soon.
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Old 20.11.2020, 03:57
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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Here in Aargau, we have rueblies and the only public hydrogen refueling station in CH The hydrogen station is very near to two big distribution centers of Migros and Coop, makes sense. https://www.aargauerzeitung.ch/aarga...sein-133983685
No longer true.
Three are in operation atm, with 3 more originally planned to become operational before the end of the year (covid permitting I guess).

In operation:
Avia, Oberer Graben, St. Gallen
Agrola/Landi, Zofingen
Coop, Hunzenschwil

Planned, the first three to open this year:
AVIA, Rümlang
Coop, Dietlikon
Coop, Crissier/Lausanne
Coop, Bern Bethlehem
Agrola, Rothenburg
Avia, Geuensee

Avia, Coop, Migrol+Migros, Agrola+Fenaco (Swiss farmers' cooperation and supplier of Landi) formed the cooperation "H2 Mobilität Schweiz " (H2 mobility Switzerland). They shoulder the initial effort jointly of setting up a viable network of gas stations. They project having a sufficient network ready by 2023 (plan before covid hit, I seem to remember reading 600 stations). The cooperation members own 1'500 gas stations nationwide and operate 1'700 trucks and other heavy vehicles. Apparently 10 trucks enable a gas station to break even, so they kind of generate their own success.

The first aim is to have a working chain broadly along the Autobahn A1, from St.Gallen to Lausanne. While the target market are trucks and similar (350 bars) the gas stations will serve cars (700 bars), too.

The first ten Hyundai Xcient trucks were expected for September 2020. According to plans 1'600 more are planned by 2025 [probably replacing the current fleet].

It looks to me like they plan to produce their own hydrogen, with focus on production near the station, and make it "green".
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Old 20.11.2020, 04:58
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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I can't understand why there isn't standardisation on car batteries so they are fully interchangeable. That way you drive into eShell or whatever, drive over a grid and a robot takes your depleted battery and replaces it with a fully charged one. You can still charge at home etc.. but it solves the biggest issue of range anxiety.
Ignoring aspects like propietary technology and royalties, as well as selling one's own product rather than letting the competitor sell his, there's still the fact that no single battery is the same as the next one.

I imagine it wouldn't be fun seeing your shiny new battery capable of 130% the default (with 100% defined by a supposed new open standard) replaced by an old scrappy one that manages 85% only, especially when you're on that 2000km drive to your holiday destination. Even more so when that crappy old replacement is a hundred times more likely to blow up along the way and set your shiny new car the insurance will only pay 80% for on fire.
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