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  #101  
Old 20.11.2020, 17:21
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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BJ can say what he wants, but ultimately it's Parliament that will decide.


I've not read through he whole thread, but someone mentioned Hydrogen. This is the way car manufacturers are going. They are investing hundred's of millions into this technology to develop fuel cells and we'll likely see these models sooner rather than later. This will then leapfrog battery technology making it obsolete.


And the British government is currently providing hundreds of million pounds to companies to research and further develop this technology - so on the face of it, it makes his announcement seem odd!!
In the UK and given a decent parliamentary majority what the PM wants the PM almost always gets.

As mentioned before, I do not see hydrogen taking off for cars. I used to be a fan but have come to realise the low system efficiency coupled with the high cost manufacturing and the infrastructure issues (converting a single fuel station to hydrogen costs about Ä 1,000,000) I no longer see it. Particularly as significant cost and efficiency improvements to batteries are on the horizon.

As someone else already wrote above, I wouldn't be surprised to see fuel cells appearing in heavy vehicles (trucks, busses) but no real breakthrough in cars.

There's a decent summary paper from consultants Arthur D Little here if you're interested.
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  #102  
Old 20.11.2020, 18:07
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

What people don't realize is that it takes very little to make owning an ICE car almost as annoying as driving a 1st gen Nissan Leaf across the US.

AFAIK, gas-stations already make nearly no profit (or none at all) on the sale of fuel alone.

What do you think will happen when the demand for fuel declines every year?

Do you think more gas-stations will pop up to sell a declining number of customers less fuel?

I read somewhere that it only took a couple of weeks of Tesco et.al. undercutting each other on fuel prices to drive all "independent" gas-stations into bankruptcy (when was that? 90s?).

Engines these days are highly developed. They are not easy to repair and have special requirements for oil, fuel, ad-blue etc.pp.

The companies that produce this stuff will charge you through the nose for it when demand goes down and thus a negative scale-effect comes into play.

Adding to that are ever increasing regulations that will make it nearly impossible to build a car with an ICE engine anyway well before 2030.

See the discussion on the upcoming standardization of the Euro7 standard.

And don't forget that more and more cities will just ban ICE-cars from entering.

It will be like owning one of those Euro5 Diesels now.

The fact that a lot of people can't afford a "decent" BEV right now is not really a concern to politicians, in case you still harbor that romantic view of the world.


For once, the often quoted word of "disruption" is an apt description of the things to come.
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  #103  
Old 20.11.2020, 18:17
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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Not necessarily - gas cylinders is a good example, with plastic ones becoming available that are interchangeable in appliances with the same standard that existed for many years.

With batteries the standard only needs to cover the output interface and mounting points, the internals can be changed. And given the interface will no-doubt be smart (like USB), even the various capacities/limits don't need to be fixed in the standard, only the mechanism for communicating between the car and the battery.

I believe your view on batteries as only "things to plug in" is very simplistic and not in line with reality.
Maybe true for a battery pack to top up your phone. Not for a car battery.



German car manufacturers are learning this, too, by the hard way, that a battery is more than something that outputs voltage and amps.


Not all of the valuation of Tesla at the stock exchange is a bubble.
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  #104  
Old 20.11.2020, 18:50
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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Hydrogen really makes sense for heavy trucks. In a week they consume the yearly consumption of a car. Also an option for public transport.
Why does the vehicle's amount of consumption change the picture? (that's what you seem to imply, apologies if I misunderstood)
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  #105  
Old 20.11.2020, 18:53
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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Yes, hydrogen can be produced from all those. But the process is massively less efficient than battery. This is the link medea posted earlier which explains it

https://theconversation.com/hydrogen...science-139899
That article's based on an apples to oranges comparison. It's no wonder changing (or not changing) the kind of energy favors electricity once it's been produced. But electricity is a secondary energy only.

Comparing source-to-consumption efficiency, with for instance hydrogen production not using electricity but different ways may well change the picture. Hydrogen from biomass for instance should compare much more favorable, may be even more efficient than electricity.
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  #106  
Old 20.11.2020, 18:56
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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Why does the vehicle's amount of consumption change the picture? (that's what you seem to imply, apologies if I misunderstood)
Because batteries don't have enough capacity. Not much point in having a big truck with half the weight used up by battery, similarly with public transport they need to run all day without much stopping (although wireless charging at bus stops would be a good option here).
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  #107  
Old 20.11.2020, 19:29
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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Because batteries don't have enough capacity. Not much point in having a big truck with half the weight used up by battery, similarly with public transport they need to run all day without much stopping (although wireless charging at bus stops would be a good option here).
There are over 400'000 electric buses in China. I assume they found a solution for the issue
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  #108  
Old 20.11.2020, 19:37
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

Can only assume that the real purpose is to reduce traffic.
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  #109  
Old 20.11.2020, 20:08
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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There are over 400'000 electric buses in China. I assume they found a solution for the issue
Solution's been around for decades.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolleybus
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  #110  
Old 20.11.2020, 22:27
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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Would love to see the link to something that tells us the range of an unreleased car. We know the Macan is coming, but donĎt even know what it looks like. The closest thing is a partial view of a clay model.

Model X is bigger than I am interested in.
Any other brand than Tesla will approximately be half the the range of any Tesla, that isnít difficult to work out...
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  #111  
Old 20.11.2020, 23:17
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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Any other brand than Tesla will approximately be half the the range of any Tesla, that isnít difficult to work out...
It's not exactly like that.

Range of an EV depends on a lot of factors. Not the least is how you (personally) drive it.

But they're still king of the (efficiency) hill.
That is true.
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  #112  
Old 20.11.2020, 23:40
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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Because batteries don't have enough capacity. Not much point in having a big truck with half the weight used up by battery, similarly with public transport they need to run all day without much stopping (although wireless charging at bus stops would be a good option here).
Wireless transfer of enough power to move a bus... what do you think that will do to a person ?
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  #113  
Old 21.11.2020, 00:14
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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Wireless transfer of enough power to move a bus... what do you think that will do to a person ?
a. It isn't to move the bus, it's to charge the battery.

b. Absolutely nothing since it will only work when the vehicle is in the correct location above it.

c. If a person is under the bus, they probably have bigger problems than the wireless charging.

d. Wireless charging uses very specific tuned coils, a person probably wouldn't feel anything, and if they did the system would shut down since it monitors successful transfer of power.

e. This already exists, and is standardised!
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  #114  
Old 21.11.2020, 05:09
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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There are over 400'000 electric buses in China. I assume they found a solution for the issue
There's also Tesla's Semi, which has a maximum loaded weight capacity of 80,000 lbs (36 t)—the limit imposed on all big rigs by US federal regulations—and a range of up to 500 miles (800 km) when charged to100%. Charging to 80% (the usual recommended maximum charge) takes 30 minutes at a solar-powered Tesla Megacharger and yields a range of 640 km. A commercial driver would normally not be able to travel 600+ km without mandatory breaks of at least 30 minutes anyway.

The tare weight of the Tesla Semi is not known, but estimates suggest that the trucks will have a loading capacity of up to 2 tonnes less than some ICE Class 8 semis. In most cases, that's probably not enough of a difference to mitigate against purchasing the Tesla.
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  #115  
Old 21.11.2020, 09:04
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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This is just laughable. No way will the UK be ready for this in 2040, never mind 2030.

How are they going to provide charging points for every single car parked outside on the streets? Not to mention the hundreds of points that would be needed at motorway service areas and other places for people travelling long distance. And don't get me started on the amount of pollution making all the batteries for electric cars generates.

The whole electric car idea was flawed from the start. It needs a major rethink and standardised manufacturing of the vehicles at a minimum.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54981425
They will be banning new car sales, not fossil fuel cars. Now the day they ban fossil fuel cars will be an event to see. Maybe in our lifetime, maybe not.

The new car users will be hardest hit. Companies who own fleets will be forced to spend more money on maintaining them, as will individuals. We will need to take more care of the things we have and be a little bit less of a throw away and get a new one society.

And to be quite frank, if there is a demand then it'll find a market. Just as individuals in London sell parking places, they'll start to sell access to charging point too. A new market, a new opportunity.
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  #116  
Old 21.11.2020, 10:10
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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Because batteries don't have enough capacity. Not much point in having a big truck with half the weight used up by battery, similarly with public transport they need to run all day without much stopping (although wireless charging at bus stops would be a good option here).
we already have trams which run on electricity.

there are already trials with trucks running on wired electricity. it would be great if this works out as it is extremely wasteful to have a large battery in every car when most long distance miles are done on major roads which could be electrified.
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  #117  
Old 21.11.2020, 11:34
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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It's not exactly like that.

Range of an EV depends on a lot of factors. Not the least is how you (personally) drive it.

But they're still king of the (efficiency) hill.
That is true.
I had an e-Tron for the weekend (AMAG) and have a Model X. If I thrashed my X on a full charge and took it extremely easy on the Audi on a full charge, then the Tesla will still have at least 200km of range. Seriously, I’ve driven NIO, Audi, Mercedes (EQC) 100% electric cars and I would not touch any other brand at least for the next 3 years for range, which is the most important factor. Then there’s all the other benefits of Tesla, too numerous to mention including safety...

Once you go electric you realize how ridiculous ICE cars are including the noise they make, less noise pollution is also a huge benefit too to our well-being that is underestimated.
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  #118  
Old 21.11.2020, 11:44
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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There's also Tesla's Semi, which has a maximum loaded weight capacity of 80,000 lbs (36 t)—the limit imposed on all big rigs by US federal regulations—and a range of up to 500 miles (800 km) when charged to100%. Charging to 80% (the usual recommended maximum charge) takes 30 minutes at a solar-powered Tesla Megacharger and yields a range of 640 km. A commercial driver would normally not be able to travel 600+ km without mandatory breaks of at least 30 minutes anyway.

The tare weight of the Tesla Semi is not known, but estimates suggest that the trucks will have a loading capacity of up to 2 tonnes less than some ICE Class 8 semis. In most cases, that's probably not enough of a difference to mitigate against purchasing the Tesla.
When driving long distance it is normal on a Tesla to charge before the trip to 100%, it even states the recommended charge when you set the limit on the battery capacity
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  #119  
Old 21.11.2020, 12:57
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

It's a bold and ambitious target, but it won't happen.
The UK is yet to electrify the railway system, it's got no chance of organising the infrastructure required to power most of the UK cars in say 20 time.
They should have started/continued with nuclear 20 years ago to have the capacity needed, as they seem to take 10+ years to go from conception to completion.
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  #120  
Old 21.11.2020, 14:43
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Re: Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

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When driving long distance it is normal on a Tesla to charge before the trip to 100%, it even states the recommended charge when you set the limit on the battery capacity
It's not "normal" to charge to 100%. Tesla specifically advises against it. Of course you can charge to 100% on occasion, but to do so regularly would significantly degrade the battery. Semi drivers, of course, do nothing but long-distance trips, all the time.
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