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  #61  
Old 02.01.2021, 00:22
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

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I'm fairly certain the EU won't exist in 10-20 years, let alone 300!
Itll be interesting to see what comes first, this, or the UK breaking up or the UK wanting back in.
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  #62  
Old 02.01.2021, 00:27
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

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Itll be interesting to see what comes first, this, or the UK breaking up or the UK wanting back in.
All simultaneously, together with all of us learning Chinese
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  #63  
Old 02.01.2021, 01:14
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

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In 300 years the EU will also have all mentioned above. Time is the only difference. But with things like the SNP the UK might not be that tight.

The EU is doing a good job of devide and conquer of the UK. North Ireland has some sort of special status with the border now in the Irish Sea (I think, am not sure anymore after all the developments of the last weeks). Gibraltar has some sort of specialty deal (?). And Scotland has asked the EU to keep the light on cause theyll pull a Schwarzenegger (I'll be back).
Gibraltar is not part of the UK.
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  #64  
Old 02.01.2021, 01:18
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

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Itll be interesting to see what comes first, this, or the UK breaking up or the UK wanting back in.
I don't know whether the UK or the EU will last longer - both ships are old creaky and falling apart as a result of self inflicted wounds (devolution, arguably brexit, single currency, arguably FMOP). I imagine both with be here but in reduced forms in a generation.

I will be willing to bet that we will not be "wanting back in" to the EU in its present form.

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 02.01.2021 at 01:32.
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  #65  
Old 02.01.2021, 04:03
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

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Brexit is different things to different people:

- an end to nationality based discrimination on immigration
- freedom to diverge from EU on trade
- local jurisprudence

Broadly the objectives seem to have been more or less met. Perhaps less so if you are a fisherman. Long term we need to position ourselves away from the EU as it's a low growth area and towards Asia and the US.
Just to be clear: brexit was never about reducing discrimination. Many of the brexiteers had bigoted arguments but I never heard that they wanted to be less discriminatory towards Pakistanis instead of Polish...
Anyway: none of any of that has been met for Northern Ireland. And the Scots apparently prefer to be part of a powerful trading block instead of a former superpower with an ego problem.

Brexit will be bad for everyone, but it’s clearly worse for the UK than the EU.
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  #66  
Old 02.01.2021, 08:06
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

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So far, only a few have responded as to whether he has done a good job with the Deal he 'negotiated' and the few who did, did not give any reasons or argumentation as to why.
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What on earth does 'get Brexit done'- what has it actually achieved, in real terms?

As for his school reports- they are well known- and none of them are good. Lazy, feckless, worse.
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I am not quite sure if


you do not understand

or

don't want to understand

or

worse.

No Free Trade and Sovereignty has been agreed. Any divergence from EU rules that gives UK trade an advantage, be it on husbandry, welfare, antibiotics and feeds, workers' rights, hours, conditions, maternity leave, etc, etc - will lead to tariffs being imposed. As for fisheries, the negotiations will go on for 10 years.
So basically you:
  1. Started a thread about a divisive topic without even adding your own view.
  2. Criticised others for not contributing to the thread in a way you deemed adequate.
  3. Criticised people for then giving an opinion that you didn't agree with.

It doesn't seem like a very intelligent way to do things.
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  #67  
Old 02.01.2021, 09:42
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

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The difference being that the union has existed for over 300 as a unitary state. The UK is an interconnected web of families, stories, history and love. It took four and half years to unwind 40 years of EU membership. Imagine how long it would take to dismantle 300 years of the union!
That's the thing, it probably won't take too long to dismantle the UK as long as Johnson keeps up his actions and rhetoric, the push for Scottish independence this year will be strong and his recent comments about devolution being a disaster are not just incompetent but offensive to so many. If he genuinely doesn't believe in devolution that spells disaster for the UK. Seems to me that the majority of Brexit support was willing to sacrifice or risk losing Scotland and NI for the sake of Brexit.
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  #68  
Old 02.01.2021, 09:47
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

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I don't know whether the UK or the EU will last longer - both ships are old creaky and falling apart as a result of self inflicted wounds (devolution, arguably brexit, single currency, arguably FMOP). I imagine both with be here but in reduced forms in a generation.

I will be willing to bet that we will not be "wanting back in" to the EU in its present form.
I'm curious, that you think devolution has been a"self inflicted wound"....for me it's an essential part of being Scottish and part of the UK. I feel more represented and overall there's more democratic accountability. I would support further devolution for example from holyrood into the region's of Scotland, certainly more power for English regions. We kept getting told take back control, surely that has to be on a more local level rather than diktats from London? Devolution is not a threat or a weakness of the state but a strength
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  #69  
Old 02.01.2021, 10:01
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

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I will be willing to bet that we will not be "wanting back in" to the EU in its present form.
And similary the UK will likely not be allowed back in its current form. AFAIK (but I might be mistaken) the house of Lords, whos members inherit the position instead of being democratically elected, is an institution that does not fullfill EU democracy requirements. The UK might need democratic reforms, an overhaul of its government structure, to be allowed back in.

Also it would mean the end of the pound...
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  #70  
Old 02.01.2021, 10:29
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

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That's the thing, it probably won't take too long to dismantle the UK as long as Johnson keeps up his actions and rhetoric, the push for Scottish independence this year will be strong and his recent comments about devolution being a disaster are not just incompetent but offensive to so many. If he genuinely doesn't believe in devolution that spells disaster for the UK. Seems to me that the majority of Brexit support was willing to sacrifice or risk losing Scotland and NI for the sake of Brexit.
It would take a decade or more to for Scotland to leave were there to be a yes vote to Independence. Matters that would need to be agreed:

Currency
Share of debt
Defense
Border (of Scotland wishes to rejoin the EU there would be a hard border on Great Britain for the first time in modern history)

This is before negations move on to matters covered by the UK’s exit from the EU (citizens rights and trade).

Then there’s the reality of the situation, Scotland would need a period of austerity the like of which has never been seen if intent on joining the EU.

The EU referendum, and the resulting process, has shown the issues with rushing major constitutional decisions. Even if Scotland were to win an independence referendum it would take many years before it was finally achieved, plenty of time for it to be reversed as the reality of the situation became clear.

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Itll be interesting to see what comes first, this, or the UK breaking up or the UK wanting back in.
The EU cannot last long in its current form. Its fight against the future with its war in tech together with the unsustainable papering over of the cracks and inherent problems in its treaties will come to a head at some point soon. How these are managed will decide whether the EU survives or not.
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  #71  
Old 02.01.2021, 10:48
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

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It would take a decade or more to for Scotland to leave were there to be a yes vote to Independence. Matters that would need to be agreed:

Currency
Share of debt
Defense
Border (of Scotland wishes to rejoin the EU there would be a hard border on Great Britain for the first time in modern history)

This is before negations move on to matters covered by the UKís exit from the EU (citizens rights and trade).

Then thereís the reality of the situation, Scotland would need a period of austerity the like of which has never been seen if intent on joining the EU.

The EU referendum, and the resulting process, has shown the issues with rushing major constitutional decisions. Even if Scotland were to win an independence referendum it would take many years before it was finally achieved, plenty of time for it to be reversed as the reality of the situation became clear.
I agree that the process of Scottish independence would take a considerable amount of time and I'm sure that watching on it would be an infuriating process as we watch the negotiations unfold, very much like the Brexit negotiations! There are so many issues to unpack.

Having said that we could do a copy and paste job of the reasons you just gave from remain in EU ref to the Scottish independence debate, I'm sure that even the beloved project fear phrase could be used to describe them! Likewise Brexit process began in 2015 with Cameron's victory in GE and promise of referendum will take ten years as well, the deal as it is now doesn't finalize issues like fishing, financial services which will be in a constant state of negotiations for years to come.

There are plenty of negative arguments against Scottish independence, these will just be ignored or batted away by the population in Scotland. As we saw in 2016 negative arguments failed, they'll fail again especially if they are delivered by Johnson who seems to have issues with the truth. At the moment nobody is making any positive case for the union in Scotland it's no wonder polling consistently shows support for independence.
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  #72  
Old 02.01.2021, 11:45
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

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I agree that the process of Scottish independence would take a considerable amount of time and I'm sure that watching on it would be an infuriating process as we watch the negotiations unfold, very much like the Brexit negotiations! There are so many issues to unpack.

Having said that we could do a copy and paste job of the reasons you just gave from remain in EU ref to the Scottish independence debate, I'm sure that even the beloved project fear phrase could be used to describe them! Likewise Brexit process began in 2015 with Cameron's victory in GE and promise of referendum will take ten years as well, the deal as it is now doesn't finalize issues like fishing, financial services which will be in a constant state of negotiations for years to come.

There are plenty of negative arguments against Scottish independence, these will just be ignored or batted away by the population in Scotland. As we saw in 2016 negative arguments failed, they'll fail again especially if they are delivered by Johnson who seems to have issues with the truth. At the moment nobody is making any positive case for the union in Scotland it's no wonder polling consistently shows support for independence.
Agreed, the rational argument for Scotland staying in the UK clearly isnít working and Indyref 2 remains a clear risk. Itís time to appeal to the emotional argument too, something Iím not sure if Boris Johnson is the right man for. Maybe As a Scot Michael Gove could do it? He certainly did a good job of eviscerating Ian Blackford in Parliament this week! The Scottish press also need to step up to the plate and start seriously holding the SNP to account rather than behaving like fans with typewriters.
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  #73  
Old 02.01.2021, 12:04
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

As a matter of interest why would Scotland want independence from England only to be told what to do by the EU? They would have literally no say there.

To me Sturgeon just seems to be obsessed with her hatred of all things England.
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  #74  
Old 02.01.2021, 12:41
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

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As a matter of interest why would Scotland want independence from England only to be told what to do by the EU? They would have literally no say there.

To me Sturgeon just seems to be obsessed with her hatred of all things England.
Lots of Scottish have a deep and ingrained cultural hatred of the English that has been passed down through the generations since medieval times when they were brutally subjugated. They have been treated like vassals ever since and still have a fiercely independent national pride.

Scotland wanting to break from the UK, become independent and join the EU again is a similar principle to Brexit on a smaller scale. I think one day they might get the support to do it too, though it would sadden me greatly if they did.
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  #75  
Old 02.01.2021, 13:10
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

It seems like everyone has this animal instinct to break into their smaller tribe! Then band together again with other tribes, then break again...this cycle will keep happening for eternity unfortunately! People who are not into tribalism like me are in the minority

I would prefer if UK stays intact but if it does break apart then it would be ironic, the land that split many lands around the globe into pieces gets split itself.
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  #76  
Old 02.01.2021, 13:13
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

Personally, I'm rooting for Northern Ireland to join Ireland again as long as it involves a peaceful transition.
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  #77  
Old 02.01.2021, 13:16
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

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It seems like everyone has this animal instinct to break into their smaller tribe! Then band together again with other tribes, then break again...this cycle will keep happening for eternity unfortunately! People who are not into tribalism like me are in the minority
I disagree. It's a matter of narrative that's repeated ever so many times...And conditions that change. Keeping the stuff that no longer works is a matter of time before it gets organically changed, sooner or later.

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I would prefer if UK stays intact but if it does break apart then it would be ironic, the land that split many lands around the globe into pieces gets split itself.
It is not ironic but logical.
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  #78  
Old 02.01.2021, 13:33
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

Hi All,

I've been reading this thread with interest and can only add that it would not take much to tip the Scottish towards independence. I remember watching Braveheart in the cinema in 1995 in Glasgow when, after the English did something rather nasty, an old granny stood up waving her crutches and shouted "that's typical of the bloody English!" and the whole cinema cheered in agreement.

I would not be surprised if this contributed significantly to the devolution vote in 1997.

My opinion on such is that a referendum with huge consequences dismantling 10's or even 100's of years of agreements should not be based on public opinion at one specific time point, but checked and double checked over time.
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  #79  
Old 02.01.2021, 13:45
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

I disagree with the comments lazily suggesting it's just a hatred of the English. Yes I'm sure plenty of people in Scotland dislike the English for one reason or another. But this alone doesn't explain the noticeable change in feeling in the last year. That comes down to Boris Johnson. He now has a large majority and shows absolutely no compromise or willingness to engage in debate about Scotland, previous comments also said Scotland wouldn't have a say in the EU, well it doesn't really have a say in the union of the UK as it stands.no doubt the pandemic has also changed people's minds too. For a bit of perspective, I voted no in 2014 - without any doubt whatsoever that Scotland was better off in UK. Events since then have probably convinced me that independence is the way forward. I say this as someone who has family in Scotland and Northumberland. The 45% yes from 2014 has no doubt been added to by reluctant converts to independence making a majority of 55% or so who are now in the yes camp. Whether this can be reversed or not is a big question. I couldn't see the Tories changing their ways and doing anything else other than playing to their base
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Old 02.01.2021, 13:52
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Re: how many think Johnson has done a good job with The Deal?

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I disagree with the comments lazily suggesting it's just a hatred of the English.
I agree with you. On the other hand nations that had to tolerate occupation do tend to have low tolerance for entitlement or illusion of superiority. No matter where it's coming from.
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