Gas prices at highs. Gazprom not sending more via Ukraine - happy to supply vis NS2 once it is complete...

https://www.ft.com/content/c023ba5f-...s_yahoo/auddev

If Western Europe approves NS2, which has to receive final technical and regulatory approval even after completion, then Western Europe will receive more, cheaper gas.
The current shortage is only partly due to Russia, which is getting plenty of competing orders from Asia. It is more due to LNG shipping capacity issues, which are engineered in London and other financial and shipping capitals. https://www.ft.com/content/24bd5ec0-...d-c2e1118b7f8e
Long term, prices will have to go up if Asia (and parts of Europe such as Poland) are to wean themselves from coal. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/...ies-for-growth


Again: NS2 means more, cheaper gas for Europe. At this point, what stands in the way is entirely politics.

Belarus threatens to cut off gas to EU in border row

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59246899

Who can now finally see the strategic aspect of Nordstream 2?

not sure belarus would politically be able to cut off gas in normal times, but now they could pull it off without an adverse response from russia as it would help them pile on pressure to unblock NS2.

The project isnt blocked... stuff just takes time in Germany, especially since the new government isnt formed yet and current ministers doing the job ad-interim till that moment really are not stupid enough to decide this right now.

The new coalition has one partner, the greens, who are against the project. Everyone else is for it. The draft documents on the future government - a contract between the involved parties - does not mention the project with a single word... which is more than a signal that the project will go ahead. Its basically a matter of weeks, two months max.

Lukashenko's bluster is not strategic. He would be as silly to do this as Zelensky would (for a different reason), yet Zelensky is the one more likely to do something that stupid.

Anyway, even though the pipeline is technically complete and the first line has been filled, it's a technocratic chess game next. The guaranteed losers are Western European consumers, until this clears.
https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-2-...gas/a-59535782
https://www.politico.eu/article/3-hu...am-2-pipeline/

https://www.ft.com/content/a5141b69-...a-76d841b02702

The Russians were betting on making pressure on the EU by limiting gas supply. Germany is telling the Russians "yes, we do need the gas, but no hurries". What is more urgent? your gas for us or our money for you? What a standoff.

Add the Russian army's flexing on the UA border into the mix.

I think thats an overinterpretation. Simply put: as mentioned in my last post is there one party against the project, the greens. Their leadership seems happy to throw this point under the bus to get into a coalition... but some of their MPs are pretty radical in their stance. Therefore does the government need to make sure that they dont screw up any technicalities. Otherwise the MPs can take them to the supreme court and from there to the European courts... delaying the whole thing for years. EU law says that the operation of a gas pipeline has to be clearly separated from a single supplier in order to meet competition laws. Thats why "Nord Stream One" is operated from... drum roll... Zug, Switzerland. There is a similar shell for Nord Stream 2, but its pretty clear that it is under the control of Gazprom. They need to properly separate it to be legally safe.

Sometimes the truth is boring and banal... I know. I'd much more prefer a mexican stand off... but thats not exactly what Merkel is known for.

So, bored clerk in an obscure office?

Well, I was surprised to read the issue was setting up a subsidiary. My employer opens and closes subsidiaries around the world as needed, and for much smaller revenue than this gas pipeline.

I dont think he is bored, but a clerk who was told to make everything 200% sure and watertight. The most bizarre part for me is that a gas pipeline is apparently getting its operational approval from the "Bundesnetzagentur"... these guys normally do telephone networks, telecom regulation and power grids. I wonder how much they actually know about the subject matter...

The Russians can sell their gas for $$ to other punters.....but the Germans may have difficulties in burning their €€ to keep warm

In another twist, German Bundesnetzagentur has woken up and will not give the final Abnahmesignatur until Russia brings her business procedures to German standards.

The Nordstream 2 operational company is actually headquartered in Switzerland


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59306223

If you have no clue about a subject, it's better to shut up.

Will this be your last post on this thread then ?

Germany's new government is set to rot the situation by caving in to "allies", for instance involving the Ukrainians, who have ZERO competence in undersea pipelines, in certifying NS2. https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-pol...2-with-us.html


Net result: Ukraine will slow its decay by a few weeks, Western Europe will pay through the nose this winter.

It is not a good mix of factors. Clueless bureaucrats in Brussels and Berlin, an unpredictable Putin and an extremely tight supply situation. I am not sure the new German government will make things worse; the outgoing one f---ed this up big time already.

Given that the new government put a Green and declared opponent into the position of foreign minister, we could see more than the dithering of the last government. https://rmx.news/article/baerbock-is...nto-operation/
But, perhaps the cold will bring counsel.