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  #21  
Old 15.07.2021, 16:18
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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Basically, the Bush admin, married to the oil biz, had the wacky idea that a quick cheap war could get em a pipe line built there. Originally, they tried to wheel and deal with the Taliban without success.
More than that, they actually made the Taliban, because they were a useful force to keep the Russians in check, while being assumed to be sufficiently incompetent to ever pose a danger outside of their country, or even outlive their purpose.

Allies of expedience are not good allies.
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Old 15.07.2021, 16:23
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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Get ready for massive flow of refugees fleeing Afghanistan. Young men and families will flee the country while the rest stay behind, forced to surrender to whatever local government assumes power. The taliban, unchecked, will grow in size, force and power, unstoppable until they implode or forces join again n another attempt to eradicate their brutal regime.
As long as you are at war, you can always blame problems and shortages on the enemy, or on the fact that you are at war.

If things don't get better in peacetime, people blame you.

So maybe actually letting the Taliban rule on their terms and failing miserably will inflict more damage on their reputation and support than any war ever could.
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  #23  
Old 15.07.2021, 16:27
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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So maybe actually letting the Taliban rule on their terms and failing miserably will inflict more damage on their reputation and support than any war ever could.

That is not how it works under Islamist regimes
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  #24  
Old 15.07.2021, 16:40
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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they actually made the Taliban.
It is a bit more convoluted than that. Talibans were "made" by Saudi Arabia setting up praying center in the huge refugee camps between Pakistan and Afghanistan during the 80s (refugees coming from the Soviet invasion&co).

There were some "funny" agreement between US and Saudi Arabia at the time, about money & weapons ... anyhow, the US thrown about 20 bn $ in Afghanistan to fight the Soviet invasion, most of these money ended up in the pockets of few American companies providing weapons or military training or both.

In the 90s there was some intestine fight for power, which saw the Taliban take a prominent place.

But at the time the US was already rewriting history, as shown here (an article titled "Who Is Responsible for the Taliban?")

In hindsight, and especially after the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks, it is easy to criticize Washington's shortsightedness. But American policymakers had a very stark choice in the 1980s: Either the United States could support an Afghan opposition, or they could simply cede Afghanistan to Soviet domination, an option that might result in an extension of Soviet influence into Pakistan.

There is a lot of fantasy in this reconstruction: it was well known in the 80s that URSS was going to face economic collapse, if the Soviet expansion would have reached the Indian Ocean it would have been just a mortal blow to its finances, due to needed defense and infrastructure investments, before providing some meaningful contributions to the failing russian economy.

So, in short: yes Bin Laden had a Casio watch, but this is not a proof he was paid directly by CIA, nor is a relevant fact


Fun fact: see documents that can be found in this Dutch embassy site for a funny revival of "the US train islam revolutionary fighters against the oppressive communist power"

Fun fact2: in the 80s, the US started to pump bilion of dollars of oil out of Alaska. And they started playing with OPEC. And this resulted in
the reason for the decline in petroleum prices in the late 1980's there is evidence that this occurred because of a conspiracy between the American Central Intelligence Agency (C.I.A.) the leaders of Saudi Arabia to punish the Soviet Union for its invasion of Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia increased its production of petroleum drastically and consequently the price of petroleum fell. (according to the visually cacophonic site previously cited)
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  #25  
Old 15.07.2021, 18:17
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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It is a bit more convoluted than that. Talibans were "made" by Saudi Arabia setting up praying center in the huge refugee camps between Pakistan and Afghanistan during the 80s (refugees coming from the Soviet invasion&co).

So, in short: yes Bin Laden had a Casio watch, but this is not a proof he was paid directly by CIA, nor is a relevant fact
If it would've been a Timex then for sure. No hiding it!

Just the same, what really ticked off Bin in Laden, is that he wanted to use his faithful Taliban to protect Saudi Arabia, when good old USA ally Sadam turned really roten and invaded Kuwait, but the king turned him down. Then what really ticked him off was instead they allowed that non-Islamic US military onto their turf. That he could not at all take and as we all know the Taliban started learning how to fly.
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  #26  
Old 15.07.2021, 18:34
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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As long as you are at war, you can always blame problems and shortages on the enemy, or on the fact that you are at war.

If things don't get better in peacetime, people blame you.

So maybe actually letting the Taliban rule on their terms and failing miserably will inflict more damage on their reputation and support than any war ever could.
Wouldn't have noticed that people of their ilk really give a F about their reputation. Their miserable failure under any half ways considered "civilized" measures is guaranteed.

Looks like the Taliban have picked up some PR pointers on the way....as have the UN, who still recommend peace negotiations
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  #27  
Old 13.08.2021, 11:15
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

A bit sooner than expected. The USA (and UK) intend re-inserting limited troops to cover the final evacuation. Wonder whether these plans work a bit better than all the others.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...biden-rumsfeld

I really pity the soldiers detailed to protect the embassy when Kabul falls
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  #28  
Old 14.08.2021, 16:02
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

Congratulations to the Talibans they are now in possession of more Blackhawk helicopters than 166 nations in the world



Jo Biden certainly delivers. Too bad media is really really quiet about it
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  #29  
Old 14.08.2021, 17:48
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

Sleepy Joe said a month ago that the Afghan army was 300,000 strong, and one of the best in the world. Now they’re getting overrun by a bunch of goatherds with AKs.

Germany and Sweden best stand by.
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  #30  
Old 14.08.2021, 18:14
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

Amazing... the CIA and State Department expected the Najibullah government to fold within weeks after the Soviet Union completed its withdrawal in 1989. It took two years until it was down to about 10% of the Afghan territory being under its control, which is close to where the current Ghani government is. The Najibullah government fell just short of three years, and only after Russia withdrew its support completely.

Meanwhile the CIA and State Department expected the Ghani government to hold two years. It is already down to where the Najibullah government took two years to get, even before the official withdrawal of the Americans. And who knows how long before Ghani gets offed by his own side or the government capitulates...

Record incompetence!
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  #31  
Old 14.08.2021, 18:25
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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Sleepy Joe said a month ago that the Afghan army was 300,000 strong, and one of the best in the world. Now they’re getting overrun by a bunch of goatherds with AKs.

Germany and Sweden best stand by.
20 years, 2T USD spent and quarter million lives is the cost of the Afghan war.

It took 4 days for the Taliban to reclaim most of the country.
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  #32  
Old 14.08.2021, 18:35
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

Good article by an ex US military on the failed building of an Afghan security force.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...source=twitter

Last edited by komsomolez; 14.08.2021 at 19:28.
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  #33  
Old 14.08.2021, 18:47
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

here are updated reports:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...ghan-city-live
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  #34  
Old 14.08.2021, 19:00
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

It is a shitshow. The US approaching another Saigon moment. However, I have no doubt the we would have seen the same result had "the West" withdrawn in 2005. Or in 2035 for that matter. It is an ungovernable place.
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  #35  
Old 14.08.2021, 19:17
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

Good article here too

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58187410
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Old 14.08.2021, 20:04
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

At the end of the day who cares? Afghanistan is just some other failed islamic dust bowl.
On the other hand Taiwan and indeed Japan are going to conclude that the US is untrustworthy and could very well leave them out to dry shoult a conflict with China become "warm" looking at the amount of trade to China and to Taiwan, China could well tell the US to pound sand should they decide that there is only one China.
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  #37  
Old 14.08.2021, 21:32
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

A sharp analysis of what the future likely holds: basically, the Tajik islamists joining with the Pashtun islamists (aka Taliban) rather than fighting as before and during the American invasion.
My take is that the Tajiks don't have the sames choices now since the Taliban hold most of the North, though Dostum may try to pull out another double-stab.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/0...bits.html#more


And a realistic view and updates from a scarce knowledgeable journalist:
https://twitter.com/bsarwary
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  #38  
Old 14.08.2021, 21:40
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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Dostum may try to pull out another double-stab.
Scratch that. Mazar-i-Sharif has fallen and claims that Dostum has fled to Uzbekistan. That was fast.
https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee


And Dostum had better run indeed, given that this was his and likely US forces' doing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2twF-DofuDw

Last edited by XDr; 14.08.2021 at 22:02. Reason: Dostum
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  #39  
Old 14.08.2021, 21:52
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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Congratulations to the Talibans they are now in possession of more Blackhawk helicopters than 166 nations in the world
TBF though that's nonfunctional. Just look at the hole at its right front where the machineguns should be. Certainly the engine is dead as well.
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  #40  
Old 14.08.2021, 22:29
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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TBF though that's nonfunctional. Just look at the hole at its right front where the machineguns should be. Certainly the engine is dead as well.
On the other hand these: https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/st...83971261976586
And these: https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/st...12497965015048


And my guess is that one of these is on its way to take them out: https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/st...19329978773514

Last edited by XDr; 15.08.2021 at 00:05. Reason: Link
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