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  #41  
Old 14.08.2021, 22:46
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

Seems common for middle east armies to collapse when faced with Islamic extremists; presumably because they share the same religion and fear they will not go to heaven if they kill an extremist.
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  #42  
Old 14.08.2021, 22:51
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

It will be interesting if they can get spare parts for these choppers. Russians might trade a few samples 9f US technology for some MI spares :-)
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  #43  
Old 14.08.2021, 23:17
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

Not a fighting chopper, and the same as in your 3rd link.

Whether the US let operational fighting choppers and planes survive the coming days is to be seen.

Either way, it's not the end of the world.
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Seems common for middle east armies to collapse when faced with Islamic extremists; presumably because they share the same religion and fear they will not go to heaven if they kill an extremist.
Or easy to blackmail by kidnapping a few other's family members and cutting bits off.

Probably a mixture of both, plus some additional reasons like tribe-ship and whatnot.
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  #44  
Old 14.08.2021, 23:48
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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Not a fighting chopper...
Both are light airtrucks with some gunship ability. Even aside from its insane maintenance, the Blackhawk was just not up to the Afghan environment.
https://www.militaryaerospace.com/co...of-afghanistan



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Whether the US let operational fighting choppers and planes survive the coming days is to be seen.
That is exactly the point of my third link, though perhaps you saw it before correction.
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  #45  
Old 15.08.2021, 00:50
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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That is exactly the point of my third link, though perhaps you saw it before correction.
A-haa, I see now.
You changed the 3rd's text rather than the linked URL; the linked URL is still the same for 1st and 3rd link.

So, to open the 3rd tweet, copy/paste the URL displayed instead of clicking the link (until it's been corrected).
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  #46  
Old 15.08.2021, 06:47
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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A sharp analysis of what the future likely holds
Good analysis, agree, thanks for the link. The big question marks is to what extent can the "central" Taliban leadership exercise control over the warlords, especially now that they've tasted blood and Kabul is basically there for the taking. Apparently, there are already hundreds of Taliban in Kabul waiting for the reinforcements. The so-called negotiations in Qatar are most probably just a push to buy time to evacuate the diplomatic personnel before Kabul is overrun by frantic zealots that can't be stopped.

For me, removing Ghani under pressure from the Taliban paints such a weak picture of the Americans, it's frightening and sends a very clear message: fight the Americans, that's how you win the negotiations also.

The sad thing is, it's not like Biden didn't have other options, he just took such a radical, binary decision and I can't help but think that he and his administration didn't think this through and are now shocked by the fallout.

I still think this is evolving in the White House and the Pentagon as we speak.
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Old 15.08.2021, 07:51
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

The US is an aggressive warring empire, irrespective of party/president and routinely if not obediently partnered with UK
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  #48  
Old 15.08.2021, 07:58
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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The US is an aggressive warring empire, irrespective of party/president and routinely if not obediently partnered with UK
the US has many, many failures, one of which is evolving in Afghanistan as we speak. However, I'd chose the US over Russia or China to fill the vacuum and you'd be naive to think that this won't happen
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  #49  
Old 15.08.2021, 08:30
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

At this point Afghanistan can be considered a hugely failed project and the best thing to do would be unfortunately to leave it to the not-so-tender-mercies of the Taliban and let the new regime establish itself and run its natural course from this day forward.

IMO the only thing that would work to stabilize the country (by deterring Taliban and fighting off major atacks) are US/NATO peacekeeping forces there on a permanent basis with all countries contributing equally. The local security forces aren't paid or motivated to throw their lives away fighting religious fanatics, so it's hardly any wonder they fold like paper under concerted attacks.

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The US is an aggressive warring empire, irrespective of party/president and routinely if not obediently partnered with UK
The USA, for all its failings, at least represent Western liberal ideals and democracy. Russia and China with their brutally oppressive and undemocratic regimes, with no freedom of speech or right to express yourselves, are many, many times worse and if they had the power they would have done worse a long time ago. Thankfully, the USA and NATO act as a big stabilizer to stop Russia and China from extending too far.
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Old 15.08.2021, 09:07
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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20 years, 2T USD spent and quarter million lives is the cost of the Afghan war.

It took 4 days for the Taliban to reclaim most of the country.
Vietnam revisited.

Tom
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  #51  
Old 15.08.2021, 09:16
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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Or easy to blackmail by kidnapping a few other's family members and cutting bits off.

Probably a mixture of both, plus some additional reasons like tribe-ship and whatnot.
Whatever middle east armies are useless against religious fanatics.
Remember Mosul in 2014 when the Iraqi army had 30,000 soldiers and another 30,000 federal police stationed in the city, who surrendered to a 1,500-member ISIS attacking force.
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  #52  
Old 15.08.2021, 10:38
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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With the major exception of Israel and Iran who not only have fighting capability, but also the support infrastructure behind.

Remember that the US and Iran were working together in Iraq to corner ISIS which was also an acid-test that both countries DO have a few points on which they align and this was the impetus needed to build some trust and then the JCPOA became possible.
Israel and Iran have the guts to do what must be done to win in such circumstances - make the other side understand that for every one of ours they kill we will take 100 of yours. They think that we are weak and they are right.

Because of the lack of guts from the West - many many "refugees" have raped and murdered young women and men in Europe without any effective deterrent. Deport their entire families while confiscating any property and see this stupidity stop overnight.
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Old 15.08.2021, 11:03
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

The Germans have turned down an American offer for the military to accompany the US military in order to evacuate German citizens in Kabul. The US will be out within 24 hours, according to CBS News. The Germans decided to send the Luftwaffe "on Monday" according to DW. (We can't possibly fly on the weekend...) I wonder at what point the Taliban will say, "Hey, this plane ain't leaving until you pay up."
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  #54  
Old 15.08.2021, 12:05
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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The Germans have turned down an American offer for the military to accompany the US military in order to evacuate German citizens in Kabul. The US will be out within 24 hours, according to CBS News. The Germans decided to send the Luftwaffe "on Monday" according to DW. (We can't possibly fly on the weekend...) I wonder at what point the Taliban will say, "Hey, this plane ain't leaving until you pay up."
Look who the German minister of defence is... Merkel acolyte
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Old 15.08.2021, 12:22
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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I wonder at what point the Taliban will say, "Hey, this plane ain't leaving until you pay up."
They won't. It looks like they've already captured Kabul and are as we speak negotiating for the transition of power. The reason why they are showing restraint is because a battle scene in Kabul will be devastating for them as they will need all the international recognition, support and aid they can get.

Capturing diplomats has 0 upside and many downsides. They are smarter. Now, for the local population...once the journalists and diplomats are out, they're life will be reset to 1000 years ago.
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Old 15.08.2021, 12:24
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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Now, for the local population...once the journalists and diplomats are out, they're life will be reset to 1000 years ago.
When it was pure and perfect.
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Old 15.08.2021, 12:26
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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When it was pure and perfect.
Exactly! When it was poor, nasty, brutish, and short ...
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Old 15.08.2021, 12:44
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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They won't. It looks like they've already captured Kabul and are as we speak negotiating for the transition of power. The reason why they are showing restraint is because a battle scene in Kabul will be devastating for them as they will need all the international recognition, support and aid they can get.

Capturing diplomats has 0 upside and many downsides. They are smarter. Now, for the local population...once the journalists and diplomats are out, they're life will be reset to 1000 years ago.
The "government" just announced "peaceful transition of power".
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Old 15.08.2021, 13:25
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

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With the major exception of Israel and Iran who not only have fighting capability, but also the support infrastructure behind.

Remember that the US and Iran were working together in Iraq to corner ISIS which was also an acid-test that both countries DO have a few points on which they align and this was the impetus needed to build some trust and then the JCPOA became possible.
These military capabilities versus the extremists have much more to do with religion than anything else.
The militant fanatics are of the Sunni faith or linked to it whereas Iran is of the Shiʿi faith, Israel of course is not Islamic.

Afghanistan's official faith is also Sunni.
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Old 15.08.2021, 13:28
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Re: Afghanistan: misplaced trust in USA evident?

There are so many layers of cruelty regarding the Taliban takeover but one that at the moment sticks in my mind is those poor souls who have fought together with the US and UK in the hope of keeping their country "free" and will now be most probably killed by the Taliban for their treason.
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