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komsomolez 10.04.2022 20:39

French presidential election 2022
 
First projection has Macron 5% up vs Le Pen. I think this is somewhat good news. And I post this here as imo the most relevant thread for this. Of course, someone might prefer to move into a French thread.

https://www.nzz.ch/

marton 10.04.2022 20:46

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by komsomolez (Post 3404512)
First projection has Macron 5% up vs Le Pen. I think this is somewhat good news. And I post this here as imo the most relevant thread for this. Of course, someone might prefer to move into a French thread.

https://www.nzz.ch/

It looks like it will go into a second round

slammer 10.04.2022 20:46

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by komsomolez (Post 3404512)
First projection has Macron 5% up vs Le Pen. I think this is somewhat good news. And I post this here as imo the most relevant thread for this. Of course, someone might prefer to move into a French thread.

https://www.nzz.ch/

Five percent difference between democracy and Faschismus, when did this shut start to become default?

komsomolez 10.04.2022 20:52

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by marton (Post 3404514)
It looks like it will go into a second round

Of course. Nobody was expected to get 50%.

Quote:

Originally Posted by slammer (Post 3404515)
Five percent difference between democracy and Faschismus, when did this shut start to become default?

Well, you can add Zemmour's 8% to her 23%. As usual, the question will be who the first round drop-outs will support and whether their voters will vote. There are some crazy lefties in France, and the biggest risk to Macron is that they will stay home instead of voting for him.

Link to this thread for whom it may not be obvious: Le Pen as recently as late march said sshe was opposing sanctions against Russia (because inflation) and she could see Russia as an ally after the war ends. She has also previously said she would leave NATO. Zemmour is even worse. The left guy (Melechon) has also been a Putin boy, but lately said he regrets that.

Axa 10.04.2022 21:28

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by slammer (Post 3404500)
Oh heck, if France goes all nazi on us, along with Hungary and Denmark an Poland then we know why Rick Sanchez is confused about when this shit became default.

On us? I hope you got an advanced degree. Otherwise I wish you the best. Cava is gut, prosecco is better

slammer 10.04.2022 21:41

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Axa (Post 3404522)
On us? I hope you got an advanced degree. Otherwise I wish you the best. Cava is gut, prosecco is better

Nah, don‘t dig bubbly sweet Prosecco.

vushka 11.04.2022 08:29

Re: French presidential election 2022
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by slammer (Post 3404515)
Five percent difference between democracy and Faschismus, when did this shut start to become default?

i think fascism or its counterparts are usually a reaction to something. in the case of france i still think the effects of mass immigration or 'le grand remplacement' is still the catalyst for unrest.

greenmount 11.04.2022 08:44

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by komsomolez (Post 3404516)
Of course. Nobody was expected to get 50%.



Well, you can add Zemmour's 8% to her 23%. As usual, the question will be who the first round drop-outs will support and whether their voters will vote. There are some crazy lefties in France, and the biggest risk to Macron is that they will stay home instead of voting for him.

Link to this thread for whom it may not be obvious: Le Pen as recently as late march said sshe was opposing sanctions against Russia (because inflation) and she could see Russia as an ally after the war ends. She has also previously said she would leave NATO. Zemmour is even worse. The left guy (Melechon) has also been a Putin boy, but lately said he regrets that.

Basically in the first round they could vote between an extremist (right or left) and Macron, who is the only sensible one among so many clowns. A sad, sad state of affairs. And that coming from France! what a disappointment. I don't know, the French have to take a deep, good look in the mirror and ask themselves who they want to become and what they want France to be in Europe or the world, really.This is not the France we knew and/or loved.

bowlie 11.04.2022 09:08

Re: French presidential election 2022
 
Normally in the first tour you see ‘protest’ votes. Where Putin supporters voting for a right wing candidate to send a message. Having done that they will vote their favourite in the second tour.

LePen will do well, better than previous elections, but I doubt she will get more than 50%.

The abstaintion rate was quite high in the first tour, that will be bad news for Macron if it continues, but not fatal.

Dack Rambo 11.04.2022 16:26

Re: French presidential election 2022
 
Macron is still favourite to win but the next five years will likely see continued protests as so many oppose him. He has not been able to sell his achievements such as reducing unemployment. Many French people canīt afford to live in cities near where they work, donīt want to live in suburbs with high levels of social housing and thus are dependent on their car for long commutes. This causes a lot of dissatisfaction and makes people vulnerable to rises in fuel costs. Still, more widespread home office should ease this situation.

marton 11.04.2022 18:15

Re: French presidential election 2022
 
As already posted here Macron and Le Pen were the top two candidates in the first round of Sunday's vote, picking up 27.8% and 23.2%.

What gets little mention is the far-left candidate Melenchon got 22%. I doubt his voters will shift to Le Pen in the next round

JackieH 11.04.2022 21:13

Re: French presidential election 2022
 
Most won't - the big worry is that they will find it impossible to vote for Macron, and abstain. Every abstention is a vote for Le Pen !

John William 11.04.2022 22:03

Re: French presidential election 2022
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dack Rambo (Post 3404007)
Macron is still favourite to win but the next five years will likely see continued protests as so many oppose him. He has not been able to sell his achievements such as reducing unemployment. Many French people canīt afford to live in cities near where they work, donīt want to live in suburbs with high levels of social housing and thus are dependent on their car for long commutes. This causes a lot of dissatisfaction and makes people vulnerable to rises in fuel costs. Still, more widespread home office should ease this situation.


Surely bosses who cottoned onto the benefits of doing away with offices in the city and having their staff 'work from home' instead. Means that at least the office based workers can live where they would rather prefer to live and afford to live rather than where they had to live due to the neen to be near the office or at least commuting distance from work.


There's no end of examples where companies have instituted 'flexible working following the pandemic.

Dack Rambo 12.04.2022 07:32

Re: French presidential election 2022
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by John William (Post 3404740)
There's no end of examples where companies have instituted 'flexible working following the pandemic.

Hopefully this will continue. France is a big country with low population density in many areas. Increased working from home can be a big help in reducing living costs.

Harrie Nak 12.04.2022 12:50

Re: French presidential election 2022
 
Macron has nothing to fear. Similar to the last election, Macron wasn't chosen because people wanted him as their president, he was chosen because people voted against Le Pen.

komsomolez 12.04.2022 12:52

Re: French presidential election 2022
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Harrie Nak (Post 3404832)
Macron has nothing to fear. Similar to the last election, Macron wasn't chosen because people wanted him as their president, he was chosen because people voted against Le Pen.

Hillary Clinton: "Hold my beer".

Axa 12.04.2022 17:53

Re: French presidential election 2022
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Harrie Nak (Post 3404832)
Macron has nothing to fear. Similar to the last election, Macron wasn't chosen because people wanted him as their president, he was chosen because people voted against Le Pen.

I know it's just another poll and the only poll that matters is on April 24. Anyway, visualization of latest voter intention poll via the FT

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQHlbsmW...jpg&name=small

Biro 12.04.2022 18:44

Re: French presidential election 2022
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Harrie Nak (Post 3404832)
Macron has nothing to fear. Similar to the last election, Macron wasn't chosen because people wanted him as their president, he was chosen because people voted against Le Pen.


I disagree their, i beleive he has a lot to fear and needs to do some strong campaigning, this election could easily go either way, i think Micron will do but there won't be much in it

komsomolez 12.04.2022 19:23

Re: French presidential election 2022
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Axa (Post 3404921)
I know it's just another poll and the only poll that matters is on April 24. Anyway, visualization of latest voter intention poll via the FT

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQHlbsmW...jpg&name=small

That looks margin-of-error tight.

Dack Rambo 13.04.2022 08:57

Re: French presidential election 2022
 
There will be a run on nappies in Brussels after that poll.


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