https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/e...o-of-xtal-inc/

I disagree. Trump put the China issue front and center but his policies were mainly economic - trying to tip the balance of trade more in favour of the US. Biden's policies are strategic: he's trying to strangle China's semiconductor development before it can grow further. Initially, I'd wondered if some policies would be walked back to really narrow it to the claimed high-end AI sectors, but the opposite has happened: it's been broadened out.

The 'national security' angle is bogus as from some the measures they've taken, it is clear that there is no credible security concern. the aim is to stop china from developing the semiconductor industry further and if possible erode it and reduce their capabilities. the chinese know this but little they can do about it for now.

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DoJ (bold by me):

Yup. Espionage is likely to increase as the Chinese will now be desperate to catch up and minimize the impact of the sanctions.

Yup. Agree. Their approach has always been Market Access in Exchange for IP.
Now it gets more challenging.
Btw, this was great to read:$
"Another ex-employee, Wanyu Li, who became Xtal’s IT director, downloaded all 2 million lines of the source code for ASML’s OPC software to a hard drive. Xtal’s attorney did not deny that Li had stolen the code, though stated that Xtal had never used it." LoL

Let's see if NL and JP fall in line. Initially NL seemed to resist:

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1280267.shtml

But now it sounds like they might fall into line:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/n...ws-2022-12-08/

It will be interesting to see what happens:

"Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte is heading to Washington next week to discuss US demands to ban the export of cutting edge silicon chip making machines to China.

Dutch ministers have publicly resisted US pressure so far, saying that they would pursue their own interests.

Alexander de Croo, prime minister of neighbouring Belgium, home to semiconductor research facilities, this week accused the US of “bullying” behaviour."

I remember when the UK tried to assert itself and keep using Huawei equipment, they had to back down in the end.

On the topic of "increasing tensions in the region", the NYT reports:

President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea said for the first time on Wednesday that if North Korea’s nuclear threat grows, South Korea would consider building nuclear weapons of its own or ask the United States to redeploy them on the Korean Peninsula.

Speaking during a joint policy briefing by his defense and foreign ministries on Wednesday, Mr. Yoon was quick to add that building nuclear weapons was not yet an official policy. He stressed that South Korea would for now deal with North Korea’s nuclear threat by strengthening its alliance with the United States.
[...]
“It’s possible that the problem gets worse and our country will introduce tactical nuclear weapons or build them on our own,” said Mr. Yoon, according to a transcript of his comments released by his office. “If that’s the case, we can have our own nuclear weapons pretty quickly, given our scientific and technological capabilities.”

"Netherlands and Japan join US in restricting chip exports to China. Deal marks significant step in Washington’s efforts to limit rival’s efforts to develop its semiconductor industry."

Will be interesting to see the details. Did NL/JP really sign up to this, or will there be enough loopholes to allow NL/JP to continue and for the US to save face?

From all that is going on around the world, there seems to be a common thread leading back to the US...
Is the US frightened about losing their hegemony?

A concise video explaining:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uh4QGey2zTk

There was a thread about chip restrictions that I cannot find, but this story belongs in it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64658843

It outlines how the Chinese will get around the new US restrictions.

@markalex I've moved your post over to this thread, as I think it was the one you meant.

NL caves under US pressure. Let's see how this is enforced. There's still wiggle room in the wording.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64897794

Chances of this leading to war are increasing.

They will of course find a way around it; be it stealing the information or getting the tech via a third party.

But it will be more difficult, take longer and give those who don't want to live under a dictator be it Russian or Chinese a little more breathing room.

I only wish the Americans and Europeans would take it one step further and stop making everything in China. Thank god Apple have seen the light on this and started to move their production to India.

Even if India is tacitly supporting Russia, I honestly think its because they need the energy they are getting from it and have no choice.

Why? Beacause China could not hire away enough of ASML former employees and scientists and steel its hardware designs and software to replicate their photolithography steppers?

China tries to fight back by 'investigating' Micron.

Now US tries to stop this by 'persuading' South Korea not to take market share from Micron if China blocks the US RAM manufacturer.

At first, I thought, why on earth would KR RAM manufacturers go along with that. Then the article goes on to mention: "While Samsung and SK Hynix will not welcome efforts to curtail their business in China, the US may have some leverage. When the US unveiled sweeping chip-related export controls on China last October, it gave South Korean companies with chip fabrication facilities in China waivers to allow them to export from the country. Those waivers must be renewed later this year. The commerce department said it had no update on the situation."

At first, I thought if US and CN keep fighting it out, the natural course of action will be to move away from both US and CN (making them both 'losers' in the long term) but maybe third countries will be dragged into this and forced to pick a side.

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An interesting article:

https://time.com/6299563/us-europe-china-chips/

While maybe China has realised it has been snookered at the latest nodes (world is already on 5nm and moving to 3nm GAA, while China can't even get commercial yields on 7nm), it's grabbing as much equipment as it can to at least have capability for legacy nodes.

Maybe this is to ensure supply of legacy nodes before restrictions are further tightened (JP has already indicated going further than what US pushed for) but maybe China is again playing the long game. They can't really catch-up quickly to the latest nodes if all critical components are blocked by the US - they will have to do this the long and slow way: start with legacy nodes and build up knowledge and talent over time.

It could also be a brilliant way for China to outflank the US efforts to re-shore capacity to the US (which IMO is doomed to failure anyway). In my view, there is already a capacity glut which will be worse as countries overreact to the covid shortage. If China piles on there will be a massive over-capacity putting legacy foundries under financial pressure and nixing any business case for creating new fabs in US or Europe (even with financial incentives).

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https://www.ft.com/content/9dfee156-...d-bb5a285d855c

China’s internet giants order $5bn of Nvidia chips to power AI ambitions

I wondered (but hard to know if this is what is happening) whether the US restrictions actually temporarily favour China as Nvidia is now incentivized to produce chips mainly for China in a bid to capture the market there before it is closed by sanctions. Ironically, this would give China AI chips while putting the rest of the world 2nd in line in order to maximize sales/profits. The impact is only temporary as once the sanctions hit, China will be cut off and future output will go to the rest of the world.

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Just been big on the news recently that a Korean manufacturer is building a chip plant in Sachsen. People are wondering why so much money and effort is being sunk in the boonies. This China thing could be the reason.